Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Collaborators G, Bryazka D, Reitsma M, Abate Y, Al Magied A, Abdelkader A, Abdollahi A, Abdoun M, Abdulkader R, Zuñiga R, Abhilash E, Abiodun O, Abiodun O, Aboagye R, Abreu L, Abtahi D, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Rmeileh N, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Adane M, Adebiyi A, Adegboye O, Adekanmbi V, Adewuyi H, Adnani Q, Adzigbli L, Afaghi S, Afolabi A, Afzal M, Afzal S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah B, Ahlstrom A, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad M, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed M, Ahmed S, Ajami M, Akkaif M, Akter E, Al Awaidy S, Al Hasan S, Al-Ajlouni Y, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam Z, Aldhaleei W, Algammal A, Al-Gheethi A, Alhabib K, Alhalaiqa F, Al-Hanawi M, Ali A, Ali M, Ali R, Ali S, Ali W, Alif M, Aljunid S, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almahmeed W, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri S, Alomari M, Alqahtani J, Alqutaibi A, Al-Raddadi R, Alrousan S, Alsakarneh S, Alshahrani N, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Alvis-Guzman N, Al-Wardat M, Al-Worafi Y, Aly H, Aly S, Alyahya M, Alzoubi K, Al-Zyoud W, Amani R, Amin T, Amiri S, Amu H, Amul G, Amusa G, Anand T, Anderlini D, Anderson D, Anderson J, Andrei C, Andrei T, Ansari M, Anuoluwa I, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anyasodor A, Arabloo J, Arafa E, Aravkin A, Areda D, Aregawi B, Aremu O, Artamonov A, Asgedom A, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashemo M, Ashraf T, Astell-Burt T, Athari S, Atorkey, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Awotidebe A, Ayano G, Aychiluhm S, Azadnajafabad S, Azzam A, Babu G, Taghanaki P, Bahramian S, Bai R, Bakkannavar S, Balakrishnan S, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Baran M, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo S, Barrow A, Bashiru H, Basiru A, Bastan M, Basu S, Basu S, Batra K, Bayati M, Behnoush A, Bell S, Belo L, Beneke A, Bennett D, Bensenor I, Beran A, Bermudez A, Beyene H, Bhagat D, Bhagavathula A, Bhala N, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhat A, Bhattacharjee N, Bhattacharjee P, Bhatti J, Bilgin C, Biswas A, Biswas B, Boachie M, Bogale E, Basara B, Borhany H, Bosoka S, Bouaoud S, Boyko E, Brenner H, Brunoni A, Bugiardini R, Bulamu N, Bustanji Y, Butt Z, dos Santos F, Calina D, Cao C, Cao F, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Castaldelli-Maia J, Cattaruzza M, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cenko E, Cerrai S, Chakraborty S, Chandika R, Chandrasekar E, Chattu V, Chaudhary A, Chaurasia A, Chen A, Chen G, Chen H, Chen M, Chen S, Cheng K, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chimoriya R, Chirinos-Caceres J, Chitheer A, Chong B, Chong C, Chong Y, Chopra H, Choudhari S, Chu D, Chukwu I, Chung S, Chutiyami M, Conde J, Corlateanu A, Criqui M, Cruz-Martins N, da Silva A, Dadras O, Dai S, Dai X, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darcho S, Soltani R, Das S, Dash N, Davletov K, Debele A, Debopadhaya S, Demant D, Desai H, Devegowda D, Dewan S, Dhali A, Dhane A, Dhulipala V, Chi T, Dodangeh M, Doegah P, Dohare S, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Doshi O, Doshi R, Dowou R, Dsouza A, Dsouza H, Dsouza V, Duncan B, Duraes A, Dziedzic A, E'mar A, Ebrahimi A, Ebrahimi N, Kalan M, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi F, Effendi D, Eghbali F, Ekholuenetale M, Arab R, Bayoumy I, Sayed I, Elbarazi I, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elmonem M, ELNahas G, Elsohaby I, Eltaha C, Eltahir M, Emamverdi M, Emeto T, Erku D, Etaee F, Ezenwankwo E, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe A, Fagbule O, Faghani S, Fahim A, Fakhradiyev I, Falzone L, Farooque U, Fatehizadeh A, Fatima Z, Fauk N, Fazylov T, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Feng X, Ferrara P, Ferreira N, Feyisa B, Filippidis F, Fischer F, Flor L, Foigt N, Rodrigues C, Foschi M, Sridevi G, Gaal P, Gadanya M, Gaidhane A, Gajdács M, Gallus S, Gandhi A, Ganesan B, Gautam P, Gautam R, Gebregergis M, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel T, Getacher L, Ghadirian F, Ghazy R, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghorbani M, Ghozy S, Gil A, Gil G, Gnedovskaya E, Goel S, Goharinezhad S, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gorini G, Gouravani, Grada A, Grivna M, Grover S, Guan S, Gubari M, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gulati S, Gunawardane D, Gunturu S, Guo Z, Gupta A, Gupta B, Gupta I, Gupta M, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta V, Gupta V, Gupta V, Hadei M, Hadi N, Ali A, Halboub E, Hamdy N, Hamidi S, Hammoud A, Hankey G, Hargono A, Haro J, Hasaballah A, Hasan F, Hasan K, Hasnain S, Hassan A, Hassan I, Hassan S, Hay S, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hemmati M, Hendrie D, Herteliu C, Heyi D, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoan N, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain M, Hossain S, Hosseinzadeh H, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Huang J, Humayun A, Hussain J, Hwang B, Ibitoye S, Ikeda N, Ikiroma A, Ilesanmi O, Ilic I, Ilic M, Immurana M, Inbaraj L, Iqhrammullah M, Irham L, Islam R, Islam M, Islami F, Isola G, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Iyer M, Vinothini J, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jafarzadeh A, Jaggi K, Jahanmehr N, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun A, Jaka S, Jakovljevic M, Yengejeh R, Jamshidi E, Janodia M, Jawaid T, Jayapal S, Jayaram S, Jayasinghe R, Jebai R, Jee S, Jeswani B, Jiang H, Jokar M, Jonas J, Joo T, Joseph N, Joshua C, Jozwiak J, Jürisson M, Vaishali K, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kamarajah S, Kanaan M, Kanmodi K, Kant S, Kantar R, Karakasis P, Karaye I, Karimi S, Karimi Y, Behnagh A, Karkhah S, Karki P, Kashoo F, Katikireddi S, Kaur H, Kaur N, Kazemian S, Kazmi T, Keiyoro P, Kesse-Guyot E, Khader Y, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalilian A, Khan A, Khan M, Khan M, Khan M, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh M, Khater A, Kheirallah K, Khokhar M, Khormali M, Khosla A, Khosravi S, Kim K, Kim M, Kim Y, Kisa A, Kolahi A, Komaki S, Kondlahalli S, Korja M, Korzh O, Kosen S, Kostev K, Krishan K, Defo B, Kuddus M, Kujan O, Kulimbet M, Kumar A, Kumar G, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kumar V, Kundu A, Kundu S, Kunutsor S, Kurmi O, Kusuma D, Kyei-Arthur F, Kytö V, La Vecchia C, Lahariya C, Lai D, Lai H, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Larijani B, Lasrado S, Lau J, Lauriola P, Le T, Leasher J, Lee M, Lee S, Lee W, Lee Y, Leong E, Lerango T, Li A, Li W, Ligade V, Lim S, Lin J, Lindstedt P, Liu G, Llanaj E, López-Gil J, Lotufo P, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lusk J, Amin H, Feei Z, Machoy M, Madadizadeh F, Mahmoudi E, Makram A, Makram O, Malhotra K, Malik A, Malta D, Mamun A, Mansouri P, Mansournia M, Manu E, Marateb H, Martinez-Raga J, Martorell M, Marzo R, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathews E, Mathur M, Mathur N, Mattiello R, Maugeri A, McKee M, Mechili E, Mehrotra R, Meto T, Mekonnen B, Meles H, Mendoza W, Menezes R, Meo A, Meretoja A, Meretoja T, Mestrovic T, Meyers C, Michalek I, Miller T, Minervini G, Mirghafourvand M, Mirrakhimov E, Mishra V, Misra S, Mithra P, Mohamed A, Mohamed J, Mohamed M, Mohamed N, Mohammad A, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadzadeh I, Mohammed H, Mohammed S, Mohan S, Mokdad A, Vardanjani H, Molinaro S, Momani S, Mondal H, Mons U, Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moreira R, Morovatdar N, Morrison S, Mougin V, Mukoro G, Mulita F, Mullany E, Muniyandi M, Munkhsaikhan Y, Murillo-Zamora E, Murray C, Myung W, Naghavi P, Naik G, Najdaghi S, Najmuldeen H, Naldi L, Nambi G, Nangia V, Nansseu J, Nargus S, Nascimento G, Nashwan A, Natto Z, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nawsherwan, Nayak B, Nayak V, Nazri-Panjaki A, Nduaguba S, Negoi R, Abadi R, Nejadghaderi S, Nejjari C, Neupane S, Ng M, Ngunjiri J, Nguyen D, Nguyen H, Nguyen H, Nguyen P, Phuong The Nguyen, Nguyen V, Nigatu Y, Nikolouzakis T, Nikoobar A, Nikravangolsefid N, Niranjan V, Nnaji C, Nnyanzi L, Noman E, Nomura S, Noor S, Noreen M, Nozari M, Nugen F, Nzoputam C, Nzoputam O, Oancea B, Obamiro K, Odetokun I, Odo D, Odukoya O, Oduro M, Oguta J, Oh I, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke S, Okekunle A, Okonji O, Olagunju A, Olasupo O, Olatubi M, Oliveira G, Olorukooba A, Omer G, Ong S, Opejin A, Ordak M, Orish V, Ortiz-Prado E, Osuagwu U, Otstavnov S, Ouyahia A, A M, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri J, Pak A, Palma-Alvarez R, Pan H, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Panos L, Pantazopoulos I, Stoian A, Papadopoulou P, Pardhan S, Parija P, Parikh R, Park E, Park S, Parsons N, Passera R, Patel J, Patel S, Patil S, Patwary H, Pawar S, Peprah, Pereira G, Perianayagam A, Pestell R, Petermann-Rocha F, Pham T, Philip A, Phillips M, Poddighe D, Polibin R, Poluru R, Porru F, Pourshams A, Pradhan J, Pradhan P, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates E, Pribadi D, Purohit B, Puvvula J, Qattea I, Radhakrishnan V, Raggi C, Raghav P, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahmani S, Rahmanian M, Rahmanian N, Rajendran V, Rajpoot P, Rajput P, Ram P, Ramadan M, Ramadan M, Rana K, Rana R, Ranabhat C, Rao S, Rashedi S, Rashid A, Rashidi M, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rathish D, Rauniyar S, Rautalin I, Ravikumar N, Rawaf S, Reddy M, Redwan E, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Riad A, Rodrigues M, da Silva T, Rodriguez J, Roever L, Root K, Roshandel G, Ross A, Rout H, Roy B, Roy N, Roy S, de Andrade Ruela G, Chandan S, Sabet C, Sabour S, Sadarangani K, Saddik B, Sadeghi M, Saeb M, Saeed U, Saeedi P, Safi S, Sagoe D, Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahoo S, Sajib R, Sajid M, Salaroli L, Saleh M, Salem M, Salihu D, Samodra Y, Samy A, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic M, Jose B, Saqib M, Sarasmita M, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar T, Sarode G, Sarode S, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Sathyanarayan A, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saylan M, Schaarschmidt B, Schaub M, Schlaich M, Schmidt M, Schuermans A, Schumacher A, Selvaraj S, Semreen M, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou S, Sethi Y, Seyedi S, Seylani A, Shafie M, Shafiee A, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahsavari H, Shahwan M, Shaikh A, Shaikh M, Shalash A, Shamim M, Shamsi A, Shamsutdinova A, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Shannawaz M, Sharath M, Sharifan A, Sharma M, Sharma U, Sharma V, Sheikh A, Sheikhy A, Shetty M, Shetty P, Shetty P, Shiferaw D, Shimels T, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivarov V, Shorofi S, Shrestha S, Siddig E, Silva J, Singh A, Singh B, Singh H, Singh J, Singh P, Singh P, Singh S, Singh V, Sitas F, Smith A, Soboka M, Solanki R, Solmi M, Soraneh S, Soriano J, Soyiri I, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy C, Stachteas P, Stein D, Steiropoulos P, Stevanović A, Straif K, Suleman M, Sulo G, Sun Z, Suresh V, Swain C, Szarpak L, Y S, Damavandi P, Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh S, Tabche C, Tadakamadla J, Tadakamadla S, Taiba J, Talaat I, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi J, Tan K, Tareke M, Tarigan I, Teimoori M, Temsah M, Temsah R, Teramoto M, Terefa D, Thangaraju P, Thankappan K, Thapar R, Thayakaran R, Thomas N, Ticoalu J, Tiwari K, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone M, Trabelsi K, Tran A, Tran N, Tran T, Duc N, Trihandini I, Tripathy J, Truyen T, Tsermpini E, Tualeka A, Udoakang A, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah S, Umair M, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Usman J, Vahdati S, Vaithinathan A, Van den Eynde J, Vardavas C, Vasankari T, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Verma M, Villeneuve P, Vinayak M, Violante F, Vladimirov S, Volovat S, Wadood A, Waheed Y, Walde M, Wang S, Wang Y, Waqas M, Wickramasinghe N, Willeit P, Wojewodzic M, Wolde A, Wonde T, Xiao H, Xu S, Yadav M, Yamagishi K, Yang D, Yang L, Yano Y, Yarahmadi A, Yesodharan R, Yezli S, Yi X, Yiğit A, Yin D, Yon D, Yonemoto N, Yoon S, Yu C, Yuan C, Zakham F, Zeariya M, Zhang H, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhong C, Zhou S, Zhu B, Zielińska M, Zoghi G, Zyoud S, Vollset S, Gakidou E. Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e729-e744. PMID: 39366729, PMCID: PMC11447278, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00166-x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsGlobal Burden of Disease StudyBurden of Disease StudySmoking prevalenceLife expectancySmoking eliminationAge-standardised smoking prevalenceGlobal burdenSmoking prevalence reductionTobacco-free generationRisk factor trendsInstitute for Health MetricsSmoking-attributable burdenTobacco control policiesMagnitude of health benefitsReduce smoking prevalenceCause-specific mortalityDisease StudyBehavioral risk factorsHealth benefitsFuture health benefitsYears of lifeReference life tableTobacco policiesFactor trendsSmoking policiesGlobal burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Collaborators G, Naghavi M, Ong K, Aali A, Ababneh H, Abate Y, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar M, Abdoun M, Abdulah D, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abebe S, Abedi A, Abegaz K, Abhilash E, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye R, Abolhassani H, Abolmaali M, Abouzid M, Aboye G, Abreu L, Abrha W, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh N, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Accrombessi M, Adal T, Adamu A, Addo I, Addolorato G, Adebiyi A, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju A, Adetunji C, Adetunji J, Adeyeoluwa T, Adeyinka D, Adeyomoye O, Admass B, Adnani Q, Adra S, Afolabi A, Afzal M, Afzal S, Agampodi S, Agasthi P, Aggarwal M, Aghamiri S, Agide F, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah B, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad M, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade A, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed L, Ahmed M, Ahmed M, Ahmed M, Ahmed S, Ajami M, Aji B, Akara E, Akbarialiabad H, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemiju T, Akkaif M, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan S, Alahdab F, Alalalmeh S, Alalwan T, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam N, Al-amer R, Alanezi F, Alanzi T, Al-Azzam S, Albakri A, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh M, Alcalde-Rabanal J, Aldawsari K, Aldhaleei W, Aldridge R, Alema H, Alemayohu M, Alemi S, Alemu Y, Al-Gheethi A, Alhabib K, Alhalaiqa F, Al-Hanawi M, Ali A, Ali A, Ali L, Ali M, Ali R, Ali S, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alif M, Alikhani R, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi A, Aljasir M, Aljunid S, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri S, Almazan J, Al-Mekhlafi H, Almidani L, Almidani O, Alomari M, Al-Omari B, Alonso J, Alqahtani J, Alqalyoobi S, Alqutaibi A, Al-Sabah S, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq J, Altirkawi K, Aluh D, Alvis-Guzman N, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi Y, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi K, Amani R, Amare A, Amegbor M, Ameyaw E, Amin T, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq M, Amu H, Amugsi D, Amusa G, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson D, Andrade P, Andrei C, Andrei T, Angus C, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony C, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anwar S, Anwer R, Anyasodor A, Aqeel M, Arab J, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin A, Areda D, Aremu A, Aremu O, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt M, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov A, Arulappan J, Aruleba R, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asadi-Lari M, Asgedom A, Asghariahmadabad M, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Aslani A, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari S, Atinafu B, Atlaw H, Atorkey, Atout M, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awedew A, Aweke A, Quintanilla B, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos J, Ayyoubzadeh S, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo R, Azzam A, Darshan B, Babu A, Badar M, Badiye A, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bahmanziari N, Bai R, Baig A, Baker J, Bako A, Bakshi R, Balakrishnan S, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu O, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik P, Bansal H, Bansal K, Barbic F, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo S, Bärnighausen T, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi H, Barrero L, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Basharat Z, Bashiri A, Basiru A, Baskaran P, Basnyat, Bassat Q, Basso J, Basting A, Basu S, Batra K, Baune B, Bayati M, Bayileyegn N, Beaney T, Bedi N, Beghi M, Behboudi E, Behera P, Behnoush A, Behzadifar M, Beiranvand M, Ramirez D, Béjot Y, Belay S, Belete C, Bell M, Bello M, Bello O, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bender R, Bensenor I, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Berhie A, Berice B, Bernstein R, Bertolacci G, Bettencourt P, Beyene K, Bhagat D, Bhagavathula A, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti G, Bhatti J, Bhatti M, Bhatti R, Bhutta Z, Bikbov B, Bishai J, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas B, Bitaraf S, Bitew B, Bitra V, Bjørge T, Boachie M, Boampong M, Bobirca A, Bodolica V, Bodunrin A, Bogale E, Bogale K, Bohlouli S, Bolarinwa O, Boloor A, Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Basara B, Borhany H, Borzutzky A, 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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet 2024, 403: 2100-2132. PMID: 38582094, PMCID: PMC11126520, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAge-standardised death ratesChronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseGlobal burdenLife expectancyObstructive pulmonary diseaseGlobal life expectancyHighest age-standardised death ratesLower respiratory infectionsDeath rateCause-specific death ratesGlobal Burden of Disease StudyCause-of-death dataDecompose life expectancyLatin AmericaBurden of Disease StudyGlobal Burden of DiseaseHigh-income super-regionAge-standardised deathAge-standardised ratesSubnational locationsStudy periodOut-of-sample predictive validityCause-of-death estimatesCause-specific estimatesGBD super-regionsGlobal age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Collaborators G, Schumacher A, Kyu H, Aali A, Abbafati C, Abbas J, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasi M, Abbasian M, ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abdurehman A, Abebe M, Abedi A, Abedi A, Abegaz T, Zuñiga R, Abhilash E, Abiodun O, Aboagye R, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Abreu L, Abrha W, Abrigo M, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abu-Rmeileh N, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Acuna J, Adair T, Addo I, Adebayo O, Adegboye O, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adepoju A, Adetunji C, Adeyeoluwa T, Adeyomoye O, Adha R, Adibi A, Adikusuma W, Adnani Q, Adra S, Afework A, Afolabi A, Afraz A, Afyouni S, Afzal S, Agasthi P, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah B, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad M, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade A, Ahmadzade M, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed L, Ahmed M, Ahmed S, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akalu G, Akara E, Akinosoglou K, Akkala S, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan S, Al Homsi A, Al Qadire M, Ala M, Aladelusi T, AL-Ahdal T, Alalalmeh S, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam Z, Al-amer R, Alanezi F, Alanzi T, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh M, Aldridge R, Alemi S, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Gheethi A, Alhabib K, Alhalaiqa F, Al-Hanawi M, Ali A, Ali A, Ali B, Ali H, Ali M, Ali R, Ali S, Ali Z, Samakkhah S, Alicandro G, Alif M, Aligol M, Alimi R, Aliyi A, Al-Jumaily A, Aljunid S, Almahmeed W, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri S, Almazan J, Al-Mekhlafi H, Almidani O, Alomari M, Alonso N, Alqahtani J, Alqutaibi A, Al-Sabah S, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq J, Altirkawi K, Alvi F, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi Y, Aly H, Alzoubi K, Amare A, Ameyaw E, Amhare A, Amin T, Amindarolzarbi A, Dehkordi J, Amiri S, Amu H, Amugsi D, Amzat J, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrade P, Andrei C, Andrei T, Angappan D, Anil A, Anjum A, Antony C, Antriyandarti E, Anuoluwa I, Anwar S, Anyasodor A, Appiah S, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Bahri R, Arab-Zozani M, Arafat M, Araújo A, Aravkin A, Aremu A, Ariffin H, Aripov T, Armocida B, Arooj M, Artamonov A, Artanti K, Arulappan J, Aruleba I, Aruleba R, Arumugam A, Asaad M, 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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet 2024, 403: 1989-2056. PMID: 38484753, PMCID: PMC11126395, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchAdult mortality ratesVital registrationST-GPRExcess mortality ratesModel life table systemSubnational locationsGlobal life expectancyLife expectancyEstimating adult mortalityStandard demographic methodsAge-specific mortality ratesLife tablesCohort-component modelChild mortality ratesSpatiotemporal Gaussian process regressionGenerate life tablesPopulation growthHistorical trendsPopulation health trendsRegistration dataAge-standardised mortality ratesDemographic estimatesPopulation health outcomesHIV epidemicCOVID-19 pandemic