2023
Pairwise and higher-order epistatic effects among somatic cancer mutations across oncogenesis
Alfaro-Murillo J, Townsend J. Pairwise and higher-order epistatic effects among somatic cancer mutations across oncogenesis. Mathematical Biosciences 2023, 366: 109091. PMID: 37996064, PMCID: PMC10847963, DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109091.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchStrength of selectionEpistatic effectsSelection coefficientsMutation rateHigher-order epistatic effectsLarge mutation ratesLarge selection coefficientsSomatic cancer mutationsUncontrolled cell growthSomatic evolutionMultiple somatic mutationsDriver genesCancer mutationsCancer research communityGenesSomatic genotypeCell growthOncogenesisMutationsSomatic mutationsEvolutionary modelsConsequent trajectoriesCancer genotypesPersonalized cancer therapyMutual exclusivityMultimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics
Prasad P, Steele M, Reed C, Meyers L, Du Z, Pasco R, Alfaro-Murillo J, Lewis B, Venkatramanan S, Schlitt J, Chen J, Orr M, Wilson M, Eubank S, Wang L, Chinazzi M, Pastore y Piontti A, Davis J, Halloran M, Longini I, Vespignani A, Pei S, Galanti M, Kandula S, Shaman J, Haw D, Arinaminpathy N, Biggerstaff M. Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America 2023, 120: e2300590120. PMID: 37399393, PMCID: PMC10334766, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2300590120.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsInfluenza pandemicPandemic influenza scenarioOverall disease burdenIntervention strategiesPandemic influenza modelsNumber of illnessesAntiviral treatmentEffective intervention strategiesDisease burdenPopulation infectionVaccine developmentDisease controlSchool closuresNonpharmaceutical interventionsInfluenza modelVirus spreadEarly spreadEarly implementationPandemic scenarioUniversity of VirginiaHospitalizationPandemicVaccinationGroupVaccine
2020
The case for replacing live oral polio vaccine with inactivated vaccine in the Americas
Alfaro-Murillo JA, Ávila-Agüero ML, Fitzpatrick MC, Crystal CJ, Falleiros-Arlant LH, Galvani AP. The case for replacing live oral polio vaccine with inactivated vaccine in the Americas. The Lancet 2020, 395: 1163-1166. PMID: 32247397, PMCID: PMC8572547, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30213-0.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2019
Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines
Sah P, Alfaro-Murillo JA, Fitzpatrick MC, Neuzil KM, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP. Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America 2019, 116: 20786-20792. PMID: 31548402, PMCID: PMC6789917, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1909613116.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsUniversal influenza vaccineDirect health care costsInfluenza vaccineSeasonal vaccineUniversal vaccineHealth care costsCare costsInfluenza-related deathsVaccines actVaccine mismatchRapid antigenic evolutionInfluenza transmissionVaccine developmentVaccineInfectious diseasesPopulation-level impactElderly residentsMedical expensesNational InstituteHospitalizationAntigenic evolutionDeathEfficacyLarge proportionAllergyAnalysis of an epidemiological model structured by time-since-last-infection
Jorge A. Alfaro-Murillo, Zhilan Feng, John W. Glasser. Analysis of an epidemiological model structured by time-since-last-infection. Journal of Differential Equations 2019, 267(10):5631-5661.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2017
The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States
Lee BY, Alfaro-Murillo JA, Parpia AS, Asti L, Wedlock PT, Hotez PJ, Galvani AP. The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2017, 11: e0005531. PMID: 28448488, PMCID: PMC5407573, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2016
A Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Informing Policies on Zika Virus Control
Alfaro-Murillo JA, Parpia AS, Fitzpatrick MC, Tamagnan JA, Medlock J, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Fish D, Ávila-Agüero ML, Marín R, Ko AI, Galvani AP. A Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Informing Policies on Zika Virus Control. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2016, 10: e0004743. PMID: 27205899, PMCID: PMC4874682, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004743.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsGuillain-Barré syndromeZika infectionHealth burdenVirus controlRisk of microcephalyDirect medical costsCost-effectiveness toolsCurrent Zika outbreakGBS casesMedical costsZika casesZika virusMicrocephalyIncidence dataCountry of implementationZika outbreakInfectionInterventionBurdenInforming PolicyDALYsCountry-specific settingsOutbreakMosquitoesPregnancy
2015
Optimizing age of cytomegalovirus screening and vaccination to avert congenital disease in the US
Alfaro-Murillo JA, Townsend JP, Galvani AP. Optimizing age of cytomegalovirus screening and vaccination to avert congenital disease in the US. Vaccine 2015, 34: 225-229. PMID: 26631416, DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.11.039.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolCytomegalovirus InfectionsCytomegalovirus VaccinesDisease Transmission, InfectiousFemaleHumansImmunization ScheduleInfantInfant, NewbornInfectious Disease Transmission, VerticalMaleMass ScreeningMiddle AgedUnited StatesYoung AdultConceptsVaccine waningVaccine efficacyOptimal ageCMV vaccine candidatesLongitudinal clinical evaluationChild-bearing yearsYears of ageTransmission dynamicsCMV prevalenceCMV vaccinationCytomegalovirus ScreeningSeronegative femalesCongenital infectionCytomegalovirus infectionVaccine protectionSuch vaccinationClinical evaluationClinical trialsHearing lossVaccine candidatesVaccinationDemographic dataCongenital diseaseCognitive deficitsIndirect protection
2014
Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis
Lewnard JA, Mbah M, Alfaro-Murillo JA, Altice FL, Bawo L, Nyenswah TG, Galvani AP. Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2014, 14: 1189-1195. PMID: 25455986, PMCID: PMC4316822, DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(14)70995-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsEVD casesCase ascertainmentTreatment centersCases of EVDEbola virus disease epidemicPrimary outcome measureEbola virus transmissionPublic health responseIntervention initiationUS National InstitutesOutcome measuresHealth responseNumber of bedsContact tracingMontserrado CountyEbola virusAdditional bedsBasic reproductive numberVirus transmissionAscertainmentNational InstituteInterventionEVDDeathMathematical modelling analysis
2013
A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift
Alfaro-Murillo JA, Towers S, Feng Z. A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift. Journal Of Biological Dynamics 2013, 7: 199-211. PMID: 23701386, PMCID: PMC3780334, DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2013.801523.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2012
Plant toxins and trophic cascades alter fire regime and succession on a boreal forest landscape
Feng Z, Alfaro-Murillo J, DeAngelis D, Schmidt J, Barga M, Zheng Y, Tamrin M, Olson M, Glaser T, Kielland K, Chapin F, Bryant J. Plant toxins and trophic cascades alter fire regime and succession on a boreal forest landscape. Ecological Modelling 2012, 244: 79-92. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.022.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchWoody vegetationWoody vegetation typesWolf controlBoreal forest landscapeTrophic cascadesForest successionPlant toxinsEcosystem impactsPlant toxicityForest landscapesFire regimesMoose populationHerbivoresVegetation typesBoreal landscapeWolf densityFunctional responseLandscape flammabilityVegetationStochastic firesStochastic variationCellsCentral AlaskaSuccessionSpruce