2024
Estimated Health and Economic Outcomes of Racial and Ethnic Tuberculosis Disparities in US-Born Persons
Swartwood N, Li Y, Regan M, Marks S, Barham T, Asay G, Cohen T, Hill A, Horsburgh C, Khan A, McCree D, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Menzies N. Estimated Health and Economic Outcomes of Racial and Ethnic Tuberculosis Disparities in US-Born Persons. JAMA Network Open 2024, 7: e2431988. PMID: 39254977, PMCID: PMC11388029, DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.31988.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsUS-born personsEthnic disparitiesCase-fatality rateTB deathsTB casesTB incidenceSex-adjusted incidenceNational TB surveillance dataTB surveillance dataQuality-adjusted life yearsDistrict of ColumbiaTB disparitiesHealth outcomesEconomic outcomesFuture healthOutcome of TBUS-bornTB outcomesEstimate healthLife yearsSocietal costsTB burdenSocietal perspectiveGeneralized additive regression modelsGoal attainmentDisparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data.
Li Y, Regan M, Swartwood N, Barham T, Beeler Asay G, Cohen T, Hill A, Horsburgh C, Khan A, Marks S, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Menzies N. Disparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2024, 177: 418-427. PMID: 38560914, DOI: 10.7326/m23-2975.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence rate ratiosNon-Hispanic white personsTB incidence rateRate ratiosIncidence rateTB incidenceSocial determinants of healthRelated disparitiesWhite personsHealth equity goalsU.S.-born populationAbsolute disparityDeterminants of healthTB registry dataRacial/ethnic minority populationsCenters for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionIncidence rate differenceTB casesYoung personControl and PreventionState of residenceAI/AN personsSocial determinantsRacial/ethnic disparities
2023
Tabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States
Swartwood N, Testa C, Cohen T, Marks S, Hill A, Beeler Asay G, Cochran J, Cranston K, Randall L, Tibbs A, Horsburgh C, Salomon J, Menzies N. Tabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States. BMC Medicine 2023, 21: 331. PMID: 37649031, PMCID: PMC10469407, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-023-02785-y.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLatent tuberculosis infectionTB outcomesDistrict of ColumbiaTreatment of LTBIIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioTB incidence rateTuberculosis disease burdenQuality-adjusted life yearsCost-effectiveness ratioPublic health agenciesTB casesTB preventionTB incidenceTuberculosis infectionTB epidemiologyDisease burdenIncidence rateService utilizationAdditional interventionsIncidence projectionsLife yearsDemographic dataSocietal perspectiveHealth agenciesPrevention approachesTransmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics
Dodd P, Shaweno D, Ku C, Glaziou P, Pretorius C, Hayes R, MacPherson P, Cohen T, Ayles H. Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics. Nature Communications 2023, 14: 1639. PMID: 36964130, PMCID: PMC10037365, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37314-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh HIV prevalence settingsEstimation of burdenHIV prevalence settingsGeneralized HIV epidemicsTB transmission modelAntiretroviral therapyTB infectionTB incidenceHIV prevalenceTB prevalencePrevalence settingsTB epidemicHIV epidemicHigh burdenBurden estimatesNotification dataAnnual riskSingle pathogenIntervention impactTherapy effectsTuberculosisPrevalenceEpidemicBurdenAfrican countriesEstimated rates of progression to tuberculosis disease for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States
Ekramnia M, Li Y, Haddad M, Marks S, Kammerer J, Swartwood N, Cohen T, Miller J, Horsburgh C, Salomon J, Menzies N. Estimated rates of progression to tuberculosis disease for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States. Epidemiology 2023, 35: 164-173. PMID: 38290139, PMCID: PMC10832387, DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001707.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsInterferon-gamma release assayNational Health and Nutrition Examination SurveyHealth and Nutrition Examination SurveyUS-born statusNational TB Surveillance SystemReactivation TBNutrition Examination SurveyInterferon-gammaIGRA sensitivityTB surveillance systemProgression to tuberculosis diseaseNationally representative dataEnd-stage renal diseaseReactivation rateAmerican Community SurveyExamination SurveyPerson yearsRace-ethnicityUS populationTB ratesTB incidenceCommunity SurveyRepresentative dataSurveillance systemRelease assay
2022
A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities
Chitwood M, Alves L, Bartholomay P, Couto R, Sanchez M, Castro M, Cohen T, Menzies N. A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities. PLOS Global Public Health 2022, 2: e0000725. PMID: 36962578, PMCID: PMC10021638, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000725.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPerson/yearTB incidenceCase notificationBurden estimatesIncident TB casesTB case notificationTB control strategiesDisease burden estimatesIncident TBUntreated TBTB casesTuberculosis burdenDisease burdenIncidence rateCase detectionRoutine dataDeath recordsMortality dataIncidenceSubnational estimatesDisease control resourcesBurdenHigh needTBFraction of individuals
2021
Trends, Mechanisms, and Racial/Ethnic Differences of Tuberculosis Incidence in the US-Born Population Aged 50 Years or Older in the United States
Kim S, Cohen T, Horsburgh CR, Miller JW, Hill AN, Marks SM, Li R, Kammerer JS, Salomon JA, Menzies NA. Trends, Mechanisms, and Racial/Ethnic Differences of Tuberculosis Incidence in the US-Born Population Aged 50 Years or Older in the United States. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2021, 74: 1594-1603. PMID: 34323959, PMCID: PMC8799750, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab668.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAnnual percentage declineIncidence rateRemote infectionBirth cohortOlder individualsPercentage declineUS National TB Surveillance SystemAverage annual percentage declineNational TB Surveillance SystemRace/ethnicity strataTB incidence rateTB surveillance systemLow-incidence settingsEthnic differencesEarlier birth cohortsRecent birth cohortsRace/ethnicityOverall cohortTB casesTB incidenceIncidence settingsRecent infectionTB ratesTuberculosis incidenceRisk factorsThe positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study
Yang C, Kang J, Lu L, Guo X, Shen X, Cohen T, Menzies NA. The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study. BMC Medicine 2021, 19: 95. PMID: 33874940, PMCID: PMC8055441, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB casesTB incidenceNew TB casesTB control strategiesEpidemiology of tuberculosisMeaningful health benefitsChinese urban populationMolecular epidemiologic studiesTransmission dynamic modelSongjiang DistrictRecent infectionTB interventionsTB transmissionTB notificationsEpidemiological featuresPreventive treatmentActive screeningEpidemiologic studiesLatent infectionTB policyDemographic dataIndirect protectionTuberculosisEpidemiological driversLocal transmissionBayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil
Chitwood MH, Pelissari DM, da Silva G, Bartholomay P, Rocha MS, Sanchez M, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Glaziou P, Cohen T, Castro MC, Menzies NA. Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil. Epidemics 2021, 35: 100443. PMID: 33676092, PMCID: PMC8252152, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100443.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceFraction of casesUntreated active diseaseIncident TB casesTB control programsLocal disease burdenIncident TBActive diseaseTB burdenTB casesTB outcomesTB notificationsDisease burdenBayesian evidence synthesisCase detectionIncidenceEvidence synthesisAverage annual increaseControl programsBurdenAnnual rateAnnual increaseFraction of individualsAverage annual rateSources of bias
2020
Evaluation of 6-Month Versus Continuous Isoniazid Preventive Therapy for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Adults Living With HIV/AIDS in Malawi.
Hsieh YL, Jahn A, Menzies NA, Yaesoubi R, Salomon JA, Girma B, Gunde L, Eaton JW, Auld A, Odo M, Kiyiika CN, Kalua T, Chiwandira B, Mpunga JU, Mbendra K, Corbett L, Hosseinipour MC, Cohen T, Kunkel A. Evaluation of 6-Month Versus Continuous Isoniazid Preventive Therapy for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Adults Living With HIV/AIDS in Malawi. JAIDS Journal Of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 2020, 85: 643-650. PMID: 33177475, PMCID: PMC8564780, DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002497.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIsoniazid preventive therapyIPT programIPT strategyPreventive therapyContinuous isoniazid preventive therapyMore TB casesHIV-positive adultsCases of tuberculosisAnticipated health effectsComparable health benefitsHIV/AIDSCause deathAntiretroviral therapyTB casesTB controlTB incidenceDrug costsMalawi MinistryMean reductionTuberculosisMycobacterium tuberculosisTherapyAnticipated health impactsHealth effectsHealth benefitsImpact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States
Menzies NA, Bellerose M, Testa C, Swartwood N, Malyuta Y, Cohen T, Marks SM, Hill AN, Date AA, Maloney SA, Bowden SE, Grills AW, Salomon JA. Impact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2020, 202: 1567-1575. PMID: 32645277, PMCID: PMC7706168, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.202003-0526oc.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsGlobal TB controlTB incidence trendsEnd TB StrategyTB controlTB casesIncidence trendsEconomic burdenWorld Health Organization's End TB StrategyTB incidence rateGlobal tuberculosis controlHigh-burden countriesTotal economic burdenMajor health benefitsBase case scenarioBirth countryTB incidenceTB epidemiologyTuberculosis controlTB StrategyIncidence rateHealthcare costsIncidence reductionInfection riskTuberculosisSubstantial healthComparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California
Menzies NA, Parriott A, Shrestha S, Dowdy DW, Cohen T, Salomon JA, Marks SM, Hill AN, Winston CA, Asay GR, Barry P, Readhead A, Flood J, Kahn JG, Shete PB. Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2020, 201: 356-365. PMID: 31626560, PMCID: PMC7464931, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.201907-1289oc.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceTB casesAdditional interventionsTuberculosis epidemiologyPublic health prioritizationTreatment of LTBIInfection control interventionsPotential intervention effectsLTBI testingTB servicesLTBI diagnosisLTBI prevalenceAverage annual declineEpidemiologic projectionsSustained reductionTreatment interventionsControl interventionsTB determinantsDefinitive dataIntervention effectsAnnual declineLocal transmissionIncidenceLTBIIntervention
2019
Evaluating strategies for control of tuberculosis in prisons and prevention of spillover into communities: An observational and modeling study from Brazil
Mabud TS, de Lourdes Delgado Alves M, Ko AI, Basu S, Walter KS, Cohen T, Mathema B, Colijn C, Lemos E, Croda J, Andrews JR. Evaluating strategies for control of tuberculosis in prisons and prevention of spillover into communities: An observational and modeling study from Brazil. PLOS Medicine 2019, 16: e1002737. PMID: 30677013, PMCID: PMC6345418, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002737.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence of TBPrison-based interventionsTB incidenceGeneral populationTB casesCox proportional hazards modelNew TB casesControl of tuberculosisProportional hazards modelPaucity of dataTime of incarcerationTB burdenTB screeningTB riskTB transmissionTB ratesTB epidemicAdministrative databasesCommunity incidenceTuberculosis epidemicHazards modelTB databaseIncidenceEpidemiological contextIntervention
2018
Where is tuberculosis transmission happening? Insights from the literature, new tools to study transmission and implications for the elimination of tuberculosis
Auld SC, Shah NS, Cohen T, Martinson NA, Gandhi NR. Where is tuberculosis transmission happening? Insights from the literature, new tools to study transmission and implications for the elimination of tuberculosis. Respirology 2018, 23: 807-817. PMID: 29869818, PMCID: PMC6281783, DOI: 10.1111/resp.13333.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchTB control activitiesEvidence-based public health interventionsElimination of tuberculosisBurden of tuberculosisInfection control programCommunity-based transmissionPublic health interventionsCommunity-based settingsUnderstanding of transmissionMiddle-income countriesContact investigationTB incidenceTB transmissionTB epidemicTB strainsTuberculosis transmissionPatterns of transmissionHealth interventionsMeaningful improvementsNew casesMolecular epidemiologyTuberculosisControl activitiesOngoing transmissionVentilation studiesProspects for Tuberculosis Elimination in the United States: Results of a Transmission Dynamic Model
Menzies NA, Cohen T, Hill AN, Yaesoubi R, Galer K, Wolf E, Marks SM, Salomon JA. Prospects for Tuberculosis Elimination in the United States: Results of a Transmission Dynamic Model. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2018, 187: 2011-2020. PMID: 29762657, PMCID: PMC6119121, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy094.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB preventionTB eliminationLatent TB infection (LTBI) screeningTB case detectionHigh-risk populationImportant health benefitsTransmission dynamic modelIncident TBActive TBTuberculosis eliminationInfection testingTB controlTB incidenceEpidemiologic evidenceTB transmissionInfection screeningCase detectionTuberculosis trendsUS populationRisk determinantsHealth benefitsTreatment qualityUnited StatesTreatment activitiesTreatment
2017
Protective effects of household-based TB interventions are robust to neighbourhood-level variation in exposure risk in Lima, Peru: a model-based analysis
Zelner J, Murray M, Becerra M, Galea J, Lecca L, Calderon R, Yataco R, Zhang Z, Cohen T. Protective effects of household-based TB interventions are robust to neighbourhood-level variation in exposure risk in Lima, Peru: a model-based analysis. International Journal Of Epidemiology 2017, 47: 185-192. PMID: 29025111, DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyx171.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIsoniazid preventive therapyLatent TB infectionTB casesHousehold contactsHousehold exposureTB diseaseHealth centersPopulation-based prospective cohort studyHigh-risk household contactsMore casesBlanket screeningIncident pulmonary tuberculosisIncident TB diseasePositive household contactsProspective cohort studyTB screening programPublic Health CenterIncident tuberculosisTB infectionCohort studyPreventive therapyPulmonary tuberculosisTB incidenceSkin testTB riskPriority-Setting for Novel Drug Regimens to Treat Tuberculosis: An Epidemiologic Model
Kendall EA, Shrestha S, Cohen T, Nuermberger E, Dooley KE, Gonzalez-Angulo L, Churchyard GJ, Nahid P, Rich ML, Bansbach C, Forissier T, Lienhardt C, Dowdy DW. Priority-Setting for Novel Drug Regimens to Treat Tuberculosis: An Epidemiologic Model. PLOS Medicine 2017, 14: e1002202. PMID: 28045934, PMCID: PMC5207633, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002202.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsEase of adherenceTB mortalityTB incidenceNovel drug regimensTB regimenNovel regimenDrug regimensRegimen characteristicsTreatment durationTreatment efficacyRR-TB treatmentTB treatment efficacyRifampicin-resistant TBTB treatment durationDynamic transmission modelTB regimensNew regimensRR-TBTB treatmentMedical contraindicationsPatients' qualitySafety profileBaseline prevalenceTB epidemicTuberculosis treatment
2016
Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining tuberculosis/HIV coepidemic
Kunkel A, Crawford FW, Shepherd J, Cohen T. Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining tuberculosis/HIV coepidemic. AIDS 2016, 30: 2715-2723. PMID: 27782966, PMCID: PMC5089846, DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000001235.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsContinuous isoniazid preventive therapyIsoniazid preventive therapyIsoniazid-resistant tuberculosisTB epidemicPreventive therapyEffective TB treatmentLatent TB infectionTB drug resistanceTransmission dynamic modelTB infectionMortality benefitTB treatmentHIV controlHIV incidenceTB incidenceTB transmissionCase findingDrug resistanceIncidenceTuberculosisInitial benefitPLHIVHIVTherapyEpidemic
2015
Evaluating the potential impact of enhancing HIV treatment and tuberculosis control programmes on the burden of tuberculosis
Chindelevitch L, Menzies NA, Pretorius C, Stover J, Salomon JA, Cohen T. Evaluating the potential impact of enhancing HIV treatment and tuberculosis control programmes on the burden of tuberculosis. Journal Of The Royal Society Interface 2015, 12: 20150146. PMID: 25878131, PMCID: PMC4424692, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0146.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAntiretroviral therapyTB incidenceTB burdenBurden of tuberculosisTuberculosis Control ProgrammePotential epidemiological impactART eligibilityMortality benefitTB programsHIV treatmentTB prevalenceTuberculosis incidenceEpidemiological impactART useProgram improvementHIVTreatment effectivenessIncidenceMortalityGreater reductionBurdenTBSaharan AfricaControl programsEligibilityThe prospective evaluation of the TB strain typing service in England: a mixed methods study
Mears J, Vynnycky E, Lord J, Borgdorff MW, Cohen T, Crisp D, Innes JA, Lilley M, Maguire H, McHugh TD, Woltmann G, Abubakar I, Sonnenberg P. The prospective evaluation of the TB strain typing service in England: a mixed methods study. Thorax 2015, 71: thoraxjnl-2014-206480. PMID: 25882538, DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2014-206480.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDiagnostic delayTB incidenceTB notification ratesProportion of infectionsMycobacterium tuberculosis diagnosisFalse-positive diagnosesCost-effectiveness analysisMixed-methods evaluationStrain typingTB programsProspective evaluationNotification ratesInfection increasesTuberculosis diagnosisPositive diagnosisPublic health dataComplex interventionsIncidenceMixed-methods studyRoutine laboratoryDiagnosisHealth dataCluster investigationsTypingMethods study