2024
Estimated Health and Economic Outcomes of Racial and Ethnic Tuberculosis Disparities in US-Born Persons
Swartwood N, Li Y, Regan M, Marks S, Barham T, Asay G, Cohen T, Hill A, Horsburgh C, Khan A, McCree D, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Menzies N. Estimated Health and Economic Outcomes of Racial and Ethnic Tuberculosis Disparities in US-Born Persons. JAMA Network Open 2024, 7: e2431988. PMID: 39254977, PMCID: PMC11388029, DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.31988.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdultEthnicityFemaleHealth Status DisparitiesHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedRacial GroupsTuberculosisUnited StatesConceptsUS-born personsEthnic disparitiesCase-fatality rateTB deathsTB casesTB incidenceSex-adjusted incidenceNational TB surveillance dataTB surveillance dataQuality-adjusted life yearsDistrict of ColumbiaTB disparitiesHealth outcomesEconomic outcomesFuture healthOutcome of TBUS-bornTB outcomesEstimate healthLife yearsSocietal costsTB burdenSocietal perspectiveGeneralized additive regression modelsGoal attainmentThe long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study
Menzies N, Swartwood N, Cohen T, Marks S, Maloney S, Chappelle C, Miller J, Asay G, Date A, Horsburgh C, Salomon J. The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e573-e582. PMID: 39095134, PMCID: PMC11344642, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00150-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis servicesTuberculosis incidenceCenters for Disease Control and PreventionUS Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionControl and PreventionCombination of interventionsTuberculosis eliminationCountry of originIntervention scenariosInternational interventionLow tuberculosis incidenceService improvementCurrent serviceTuberculosis ProgrammeTuberculosis deathsEconomic outcomesInterventionEpidemiological dataTuberculosis burdenLong-term effectsTotal populationSimulate healthTuberculosis trendsServicesRisk factors underlying racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes, 2011–19: a multiple mediation analysis of national surveillance data
Regan M, Barham T, Li Y, Swartwood N, Beeler Asay G, Cohen T, Horsburgh C, Khan A, Marks S, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Winston C, Menzies N. Risk factors underlying racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes, 2011–19: a multiple mediation analysis of national surveillance data. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e564-e572. PMID: 39095133, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00151-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsUS-born individualsNon-US-born individualsHispanic individualsTract-level povertyTract-level measuresEthnic disparitiesCensus tract levelCensus tract-level povertyEconomic segregationEvidence of disparitiesAnalysis of national surveillance dataBlack individualsTuberculosis outcomesNeighborhood-level social vulnerabilityTract levelUS-bornSocial vulnerabilityUS National Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemNational Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemHigh riskCensusNational surveillance dataTuberculosis Surveillance SystemCase managementReduce disparitiesDisparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data.
Li Y, Regan M, Swartwood N, Barham T, Beeler Asay G, Cohen T, Hill A, Horsburgh C, Khan A, Marks S, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Menzies N. Disparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2024, 177: 418-427. PMID: 38560914, DOI: 10.7326/m23-2975.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence rate ratiosNon-Hispanic white personsTB incidence rateRate ratiosIncidence rateTB incidenceSocial determinants of healthRelated disparitiesWhite personsHealth equity goalsU.S.-born populationAbsolute disparityDeterminants of healthTB registry dataRacial/ethnic minority populationsCenters for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionIncidence rate differenceTB casesYoung personControl and PreventionState of residenceAI/AN personsSocial determinantsRacial/ethnic disparitiesRacial and ethnic disparities in diagnosis and treatment outcomes among US-born people diagnosed with tuberculosis, 2003–19: an analysis of national surveillance data
Regan M, Li Y, Swartwood N, Barham T, Asay G, Cohen T, Hill A, Horsburgh C, Khan A, Marks S, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Menzies N. Racial and ethnic disparities in diagnosis and treatment outcomes among US-born people diagnosed with tuberculosis, 2003–19: an analysis of national surveillance data. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e47-e56. PMID: 38176842, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00276-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsEthnicityFemaleHealthcare DisparitiesHumansMaleRacial GroupsTreatment OutcomeTuberculosisUnited StatesConceptsNational surveillance dataNon-Hispanic White peopleTreatment outcomesEthnic disparitiesSurveillance dataTuberculosis diagnosisUS National Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemIndex of disparityLog-binomial regression modelsNational Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemNon-Hispanic black peopleOverall high riskTuberculosis Surveillance SystemAlaska Native peopleTuberculosis patientsDiagnostic delayAdverse outcomesTuberculosis diseaseTuberculosis incidence
2023
Tabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States
Swartwood N, Testa C, Cohen T, Marks S, Hill A, Beeler Asay G, Cochran J, Cranston K, Randall L, Tibbs A, Horsburgh C, Salomon J, Menzies N. Tabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States. BMC Medicine 2023, 21: 331. PMID: 37649031, PMCID: PMC10469407, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-023-02785-y.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAntibiotic ProphylaxisCost of IllnessFemaleHumansLatent TuberculosisParturitionPregnancyTuberculosisUnited StatesConceptsLatent tuberculosis infectionTB outcomesDistrict of ColumbiaTreatment of LTBIIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioTB incidence rateTuberculosis disease burdenQuality-adjusted life yearsCost-effectiveness ratioPublic health agenciesTB casesTB preventionTB incidenceTuberculosis infectionTB epidemiologyDisease burdenIncidence rateService utilizationAdditional interventionsIncidence projectionsLife yearsDemographic dataSocietal perspectiveHealth agenciesPrevention approachesGlobal, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis
Martinez L, Warren J, Harries A, Croda J, Espinal M, Olarte R, Avedillo P, Lienhardt C, Bhatia V, Liu Q, Chakaya J, Denholm J, Lin Y, Kawatsu L, Zhu L, Horsburgh C, Cohen T, Andrews J. Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis. The Lancet Public Health 2023, 8: e511-e519. PMID: 37393090, PMCID: PMC10323309, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00097-x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis incidenceCase detection ratioIncidence rateCase detectionHigh tuberculosis incidence ratesGlobal tuberculosis control effortsIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateIncarcerated individualsTuberculosis control effortsTuberculosis case detectionTuberculosis casesNotification ratesNational incidenceTuberculosis notificationsGlobal incidenceHigh riskPrevalence estimatesNational estimatesWHO regionsIncidenceStudy periodMeta-regression frameworkTuberculosisNational InstituteChanges in Population Immunity Against Infection and Severe Disease From Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variants in the United States Between December 2021 and November 2022
Klaassen F, Chitwood M, Cohen T, Pitzer V, Russi M, Swartwood N, Salomon J, Menzies N. Changes in Population Immunity Against Infection and Severe Disease From Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variants in the United States Between December 2021 and November 2022. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2023, 77: 355-361. PMID: 37074868, PMCID: PMC10425195, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciad210.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSevere diseasePopulation immunityOmicron infectionOmicron variantUS populationSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2SARS-CoV-2 infectionRespiratory syndrome coronavirus 2SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variantRestoration of immunitySyndrome coronavirus 2Bayesian evidence synthesis modelInfection-acquired immunityEvidence synthesis modelSARS-CoV-2Prior immunological exposureCoronavirus 2Additional infectionsImmunological exposureInfectionDiseaseImmunityVaccinationUnited StatesDevelopment of treatment-decision algorithms for children evaluated for pulmonary tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis
Gunasekera K, Marcy O, Muñoz J, Lopez-Varela E, Sekadde M, Franke M, Bonnet M, Ahmed S, Amanullah F, Anwar A, Augusto O, Aurilio R, Banu S, Batool I, Brands A, Cain K, Carratalá-Castro L, Caws M, Click E, Cranmer L, García-Basteiro A, Hesseling A, Huynh J, Kabir S, Lecca L, Mandalakas A, Mavhunga F, Myint A, Myo K, Nampijja D, Nicol M, Orikiriza P, Palmer M, Sant'Anna C, Siddiqui S, Smith J, Song R, Thuong Thuong N, Ung V, van der Zalm M, Verkuijl S, Viney K, Walters E, Warren J, Zar H, Marais B, Graham S, Debray T, Cohen T, Seddon J. Development of treatment-decision algorithms for children evaluated for pulmonary tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis. The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health 2023, 7: 336-346. PMID: 36924781, PMCID: PMC10127218, DOI: 10.1016/s2352-4642(23)00004-4.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdolescentAlgorithmsChildHumansRetrospective StudiesTriageTuberculosisTuberculosis, PulmonaryUnited StatesConceptsTreatment decision algorithmsPrimary health care settingsIndividual participant dataHigh tuberculosis incidencePulmonary tuberculosisManagement of tuberculosisHealth care centersComposite reference standardHealth care settingsClinical featuresTuberculosis incidenceClinical evaluationParticipant dataTreatment decisionsChest X-ray featuresPrimary health care centersFuture prospective evaluationTuberculosis-related mortalityEvidence-based algorithmChest X-rayVariable diagnostic performanceMultivariable prediction modelReference standardEvidence-based approachTuberculosis expertsEstimated rates of progression to tuberculosis disease for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States
Ekramnia M, Li Y, Haddad M, Marks S, Kammerer J, Swartwood N, Cohen T, Miller J, Horsburgh C, Salomon J, Menzies N. Estimated rates of progression to tuberculosis disease for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States. Epidemiology 2023, 35: 164-173. PMID: 38290139, PMCID: PMC10832387, DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001707.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsInterferon-gamma release assayNational Health and Nutrition Examination SurveyHealth and Nutrition Examination SurveyUS-born statusNational TB Surveillance SystemReactivation TBNutrition Examination SurveyInterferon-gammaIGRA sensitivityTB surveillance systemProgression to tuberculosis diseaseNationally representative dataEnd-stage renal diseaseReactivation rateAmerican Community SurveyExamination SurveyPerson yearsRace-ethnicityUS populationTB ratesTB incidenceCommunity SurveyRepresentative dataSurveillance systemRelease assay
2022
Reconstructing the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over 2020 for US states and counties: Results of a Bayesian evidence synthesis model
Chitwood MH, Russi M, Gunasekera K, Havumaki J, Klaassen F, Pitzer VE, Salomon JA, Swartwood NA, Warren JL, Weinberger DM, Cohen T, Menzies NA. Reconstructing the course of the COVID-19 epidemic over 2020 for US states and counties: Results of a Bayesian evidence synthesis model. PLOS Computational Biology 2022, 18: e1010465. PMID: 36040963, PMCID: PMC9467347, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010465.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSARS-CoV-2 infectionCOVID-19 casesIncident SARS-CoV-2 infectionCOVID-19 disease burdenSymptomatic COVID-19 casesLocal epidemiological trendsSARS-CoV-2 transmissionBayesian evidence synthesis modelCOVID-19 outcomesEvidence synthesis modelMagnitude of infectionCOVID-19 deathsCumulative incidenceDisease burdenExcess mortalityCase ascertainmentEpidemiological trendsSeroprevalence estimatesUnderlying incidenceUS populationDisease trendsViral transmission dynamicsInfectionEpidemiological driversCOVID-19 epidemicRacial/Ethnic Segregation and Access to COVID-19 Testing: Spatial Distribution of COVID-19 Testing Sites in the Four Largest Highly Segregated Cities in the United States
Asabor EN, Warren JL, Cohen T. Racial/Ethnic Segregation and Access to COVID-19 Testing: Spatial Distribution of COVID-19 Testing Sites in the Four Largest Highly Segregated Cities in the United States. American Journal Of Public Health 2022, 112: 518-526. PMID: 35196059, PMCID: PMC8887160, DOI: 10.2105/ajph.2021.306558.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2021
Evaluating the reliability of mobility metrics from aggregated mobile phone data as proxies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA: a population-based study
Kishore N, Taylor AR, Jacob PE, Vembar N, Cohen T, Buckee CO, Menzies NA. Evaluating the reliability of mobility metrics from aggregated mobile phone data as proxies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA: a population-based study. The Lancet Digital Health 2021, 4: e27-e36. PMID: 34740555, PMCID: PMC8563007, DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(21)00214-4.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSARS-CoV-2 transmissionPopulation-based studyLaboratory-confirmed casesSARS-CoV-2 pandemicSARS-CoV-2Non-pharmaceutical interventionsCOVID-19 transmissionCOVID-19 casesEpidemiological dataReproduction numberEffective reproduction numberHealth StatisticsEquity of accessEpidemic trajectoriesCOVID-19Public healthTransmission indicatorsPopulation levelContact patternsThe Health and Economic Benefits of Tests That Predict Future Progression to Tuberculosis Disease
Menzies NA, Shrestha S, Parriott A, Marks SM, Hill AN, Dowdy DW, Shete PB, Cohen T, Salomon JA. The Health and Economic Benefits of Tests That Predict Future Progression to Tuberculosis Disease. Epidemiology 2021, 33: 75-83. PMID: 34669631, PMCID: PMC8633045, DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001418.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPositive predictive valueHigh positive predictive valueFuture tuberculosisLatent tuberculosis infection treatmentIncremental costHigher treatment initiationCompletion of treatmentInterferon-gamma releaseQuality-adjusted life yearsTransmission dynamic modelLTBI testingTreatment initiationTreatment acceptanceTuberculosis diseasePrevention servicesPredictive valueTreatment servicesLife yearsTuberculosisInfection treatmentSocietal perspectiveIGRATreatment volumeHealth improvementFuture progressionTrends, Mechanisms, and Racial/Ethnic Differences of Tuberculosis Incidence in the US-Born Population Aged 50 Years or Older in the United States
Kim S, Cohen T, Horsburgh CR, Miller JW, Hill AN, Marks SM, Li R, Kammerer JS, Salomon JA, Menzies NA. Trends, Mechanisms, and Racial/Ethnic Differences of Tuberculosis Incidence in the US-Born Population Aged 50 Years or Older in the United States. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2021, 74: 1594-1603. PMID: 34323959, PMCID: PMC8799750, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab668.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsChildCohort StudiesEthnicityHumansIncidencePopulation SurveillanceTuberculosisUnited StatesConceptsAnnual percentage declineIncidence rateRemote infectionBirth cohortOlder individualsPercentage declineUS National TB Surveillance SystemAverage annual percentage declineNational TB Surveillance SystemRace/ethnicity strataTB incidence rateTB surveillance systemLow-incidence settingsEthnic differencesEarlier birth cohortsRecent birth cohortsRace/ethnicityOverall cohortTB casesTB incidenceIncidence settingsRecent infectionTB ratesTuberculosis incidenceRisk factorsThe Impact of Changes in Diagnostic Testing Practices on Estimates of COVID-19 Transmission in the United States
Pitzer VE, Chitwood M, Havumaki J, Menzies NA, Perniciaro S, Warren JL, Weinberger DM, Cohen T. The Impact of Changes in Diagnostic Testing Practices on Estimates of COVID-19 Transmission in the United States. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2021, 190: 1908-1917. PMID: 33831148, PMCID: PMC8083380, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab089.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Diagnostic testingRespiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Reproductive numberPercentage of patientsSyndrome coronavirus 2Coronavirus disease 2019Diagnostic testing practicesFraction of casesCOVID-19 transmissionEffective reproductive numberCoronavirus 2Disease 2019Testing practicesCoronavirus diseaseBasic reproductive numberLevel of interventionEstimates of R0Daily number
2020
Impact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States
Menzies NA, Bellerose M, Testa C, Swartwood N, Malyuta Y, Cohen T, Marks SM, Hill AN, Date AA, Maloney SA, Bowden SE, Grills AW, Salomon JA. Impact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2020, 202: 1567-1575. PMID: 32645277, PMCID: PMC7706168, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.202003-0526oc.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsGlobal TB controlTB incidence trendsEnd TB StrategyTB controlTB casesIncidence trendsEconomic burdenWorld Health Organization's End TB StrategyTB incidence rateGlobal tuberculosis controlHigh-burden countriesTotal economic burdenMajor health benefitsBase case scenarioBirth countryTB incidenceTB epidemiologyTuberculosis controlTB StrategyIncidence rateHealthcare costsIncidence reductionInfection riskTuberculosisSubstantial healthHigh-resolution estimates of tuberculosis incidence among non-U.S.-born persons residing in the United States, 2000–2016
Hill AN, Cohen T, Salomon JA, Menzies NA. High-resolution estimates of tuberculosis incidence among non-U.S.-born persons residing in the United States, 2000–2016. Epidemics 2020, 33: 100419. PMID: 33242759, PMCID: PMC7808561, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100419.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence risk ratioTuberculosis incidence rateIncidence rateTuberculosis riskTuberculosis casesNational Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemTuberculosis prevention effortsNew tuberculosis casesLow incidence rateTuberculosis Surveillance SystemBirth countryTuberculosis incidenceRisk ratioTuberculosis trendsHigh-income countriesYounger agePrevention effortsEffective targetingCohortEntry yearCommunity surveySurveillance systemRegression modelsAgeUnited StatesTracking and predicting U.S. influenza activity with a real-time surveillance network
Leuba SI, Yaesoubi R, Antillon M, Cohen T, Zimmer C. Tracking and predicting U.S. influenza activity with a real-time surveillance network. PLOS Computational Biology 2020, 16: e1008180. PMID: 33137088, PMCID: PMC7707518, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008180.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsInfluenza test resultsInfluenza activityU.S. influenza activityPhysician visitsInfluenza trendsInfluenza-like illness activityNational surveillance networkSurveillance networkInfluenza seasonCurrent burdenU.S. CentersIllness activityDisease controlUnited StatesLinear logistic modelVisitsLogistic modelValid estimatesProportionTime Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States
Menzies NA, Swartwood N, Testa C, Malyuta Y, Hill AN, Marks SM, Cohen T, Salomon JA. Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States. Epidemiology 2020, 32: 70-78. PMID: 33009253, PMCID: PMC7707158, DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001271.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdultHumansIncidenceLatent TuberculosisMycobacterium tuberculosisProbabilityRiskTuberculosisUnited StatesConceptsLatent TB infectionMycobacterium tuberculosis infectionTB infectionTuberculosis infectionTB natural historyRisk of tuberculosisMost TB casesRate of progressionYounger age groupsLower future riskTransmission dynamic modelTB casesTB riskPrevalent infectionProgression riskLifetime riskRisk factorsIncidence trendsClinical diseaseCumulative riskGeneral populationAverage ageNew infectionsUS populationAge groups