2021
Adaptive Policies to Balance Health Benefits and Economic Costs of Physical Distancing Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Yaesoubi R, Havumaki J, Chitwood MH, Menzies NA, Gonsalves G, Salomon JA, Paltiel AD, Cohen T. Adaptive Policies to Balance Health Benefits and Economic Costs of Physical Distancing Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Medical Decision Making 2021, 41: 386-392. PMID: 33504258, PMCID: PMC8084913, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x21990371.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAdaptive policiesClear decision rulesSocial costsEconomic costsPolicy makersPhysical distancing policiesDecision toolPolicyPhysical distancing interventionsDistancing policiesModel-based experimentsDecision rulesReal-time surveillance dataCostCOVID-19 pandemicMakersShorter overall durationMore complex modelsHealth benefitsComplex modelsPandemicCurrent pandemicCOVID-19BenefitsRules
2020
Clinical Outcomes Of A COVID-19 Vaccine: Implementation Over Efficacy
Paltiel AD, Schwartz JL, Zheng A, Walensky RP. Clinical Outcomes Of A COVID-19 Vaccine: Implementation Over Efficacy. Health Affairs 2020, 40: 42-52. PMID: 33211536, PMCID: PMC7931245, DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.02054.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCOVID-19 vaccineVaccine efficacyCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccinesSignificant vaccine hesitancyClinical outcomesClinical trialsVaccination programVaccine hesitancyEpidemic severityVaccineAuthorized vaccinesHealth officialsCumulative infectionsEfficacyVaccine productionDistribution programSeverityOutcomesUrgent needHospitalizationVaccinationInfectionTrialsGlobal efforts
2019
Cost‐effectiveness of expanding the capacity of opioid agonist treatment in Ukraine: dynamic modeling analysis
Morozova O, Crawford FW, Cohen T, Paltiel AD, Altice FL. Cost‐effectiveness of expanding the capacity of opioid agonist treatment in Ukraine: dynamic modeling analysis. Addiction 2019, 115: 437-450. PMID: 31478285, PMCID: PMC7015766, DOI: 10.1111/add.14797.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsOpioid agonist treatmentOpioid use disorderOAT coverageAgonist treatmentGross domestic productOpioid use initiationOpioid addiction epidemicOAT accessHIV epidemicUse disordersAddiction epidemicCapita gross domestic productPay thresholdsTreatment demandUse initiationAddiction treatmentIncremental costBaseline capacityTreatmentPotential peer effectsDomestic productTreatment spilloversEpidemicPeer effectsCoverage levels
2017
A Flow-Based Model of the HIV Care Continuum in the United States
Gonsalves GS, Paltiel AD, Cleary PD, Gill MJ, Kitahata MM, Rebeiro PF, Silverberg MJ, Horberg M, Abraham AG, Althoff KN, Moore R, Bosch RJ, Tang T, Hall HI, Kaplan EH. A Flow-Based Model of the HIV Care Continuum in the United States. JAIDS Journal Of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 2017, 75: 548-553. PMID: 28471841, PMCID: PMC5533168, DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000001429.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsViral suppressionAntiretroviral therapyHIV careNorth American AIDS Cohort CollaborationProportion of HIVHIV care continuumCohort CollaborationHIV diagnosisAntiretroviral treatmentVirological dataCare continuumFlow of patientsDisease controlPatientsCareAverage timeHIVTherapyLaboratory resultsMonthsSuppressionYearsDiagnosisIndividualsPrevention
2016
Laboratory Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV Infection: Cost-Effectiveness and Budget Impact of Current and Novel Strategies
Ouattara EN, Robine M, Eholié SP, MacLean RL, Moh R, Losina E, Gabillard D, Paltiel AD, Danel C, Walensky RP, Anglaret X, Freedberg KA. Laboratory Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV Infection: Cost-Effectiveness and Budget Impact of Current and Novel Strategies. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2016, 62: 1454-1462. PMID: 26936666, PMCID: PMC4872286, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciw117.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioAntiretroviral therapyHuman immunodeficiency virusImmunologic failureLaboratory monitoringAIDS Complications-International modelFirst-line antiretroviral therapyBudget impactSecond-line antiretroviral therapyMean CD4 countStandard of careCost-effectiveness ratioLaboratory test costsCD4 monitoringART initiationCD4 countHIV infectionVL monitoringClinical outcomesImmunodeficiency virusCôte d'IvoireMean timeLife expectancyTherapyVL strategiesSurvival benefits of antiretroviral therapy in Brazil: a model‐based analysis
Luz PM, Girouard MP, Grinsztejn B, Freedberg KA, Veloso VG, Losina E, Struchiner CJ, MacLean RL, Parker RA, Paltiel AD, Walensky RP. Survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy in Brazil: a model‐based analysis. Journal Of The International AIDS Society 2016, 19: 20623. PMID: 27029828, PMCID: PMC4814587, DOI: 10.7448/ias.19.1.20623.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdultAnti-HIV AgentsBrazilCD4 Lymphocyte CountHIV InfectionsHumansLife ExpectancyModels, TheoreticalConceptsAntiretroviral therapyHIV-positive patientsSurvival benefitART initiationEligible HIV-positive patientsProvision of ARTDramatic survival benefitsSubsequent ART regimensMean CD4 countLife expectancyNumber of patientsProjected life expectancyART regimensCD4 countHigher CD4HIV diseaseRegimen efficacyLife expectancy increasesEra 1PatientsTherapyNational programExpectancyCD4Regimens
2015
Reducing Sexual Violence by Increasing the Supply of Toilets in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A Mathematical Model
Gonsalves GS, Kaplan EH, Paltiel AD. Reducing Sexual Violence by Increasing the Supply of Toilets in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A Mathematical Model. PLOS ONE 2015, 10: e0122244. PMID: 25923105, PMCID: PMC4414450, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0122244.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2014
Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Making Third-Line Antiretroviral Therapy Available in Sub-Saharan Africa
Ouattara EN, Ross EL, Yazdanpanah Y, Wong AY, Robine M, Losina E, Moh R, Walensky RP, Danel C, Paltiel AD, Eholié SP, Freedberg KA, Anglaret X. Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Making Third-Line Antiretroviral Therapy Available in Sub-Saharan Africa. JAIDS Journal Of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 2014, 66: 294-302. PMID: 24732870, PMCID: PMC4146647, DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000000166.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsThird-line antiretroviral therapySecond-line antiretroviral therapyIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioAntiretroviral therapyAdherence reinforcementClinical impactSecond-line ART failureLifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratioRaltegravir-based regimenSecond-line regimenTen-year survivalSubstantial survival benefitCost-effectiveness ratioPrimary outcomeSurvival benefitART failureDrug costsImmediate switchRegimenPatientsTherapyReinforcement interventionSaharan AfricaSurvivalSub-Saharan AfricaA Marginal Benefit Approach for Vaccinating Influenza “Superspreaders”
Skene KJ, Paltiel AD, Shim E, Galvani AP. A Marginal Benefit Approach for Vaccinating Influenza “Superspreaders”. Medical Decision Making 2014, 34: 536-549. PMID: 24740238, PMCID: PMC4209160, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x14523502.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHerd immunity thresholdSeasonal influenza epidemicsVaccination coverageSeasonal influenzaVaccination strategiesEpidemiological findingsImmunity thresholdHerd immunityInfluenza epidemicsVaccination changesPotential superspreadersSimplified transmission modelVaccinationTarget populationIntervention designEpidemicInfluenzaInterventionTransmission model
2013
The Survival Benefits of Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa
April MD, Wood R, Berkowitz BK, Paltiel AD, Anglaret X, Losina E, Freedberg KA, Walensky RP. The Survival Benefits of Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa. The Journal Of Infectious Diseases 2013, 209: 491-499. PMID: 24307741, PMCID: PMC3903379, DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jit584.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSecond-line antiretroviral therapyAntiretroviral therapySurvival benefitAIDS Complications-International modelTotal survival benefitT-cell countsHuman immunodeficiency virusART initiationART rolloutUntreated patientsImmunodeficiency virusART availabilitySurvival differencesSuppressive efficacyCohortPatientsTherapyTotal numberRetention ratePersonsBenefitsDengue dynamics and vaccine cost-effectiveness in Brazil
Durham DP, Mbah M, Medlock J, Luz PM, Meyers LA, Paltiel AD, Galvani AP. Dengue dynamics and vaccine cost-effectiveness in Brazil. Vaccine 2013, 31: 3957-3961. PMID: 23791696, PMCID: PMC3755607, DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.06.036.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsBrazilCost-Benefit AnalysisDengueDengue VaccinesHumansImmunity, HerdImmunization ProgramsModels, EconomicModels, TheoreticalVaccinationConceptsVaccination costsDengue vaccine trialsVaccine efficacyTotal vaccination costDengue vaccinationCost-effectiveness analysisPotential vaccination policiesVaccine trialsPay thresholdsVaccine efficacy scenariosOptimal allocationLow vaccine efficacyLatest clinical trialsOptimistic scenarioTrial estimatesVaccination coverageEfficacy scenariosClinical trialsAvailable dosesVaccination policyFurther trialsVaccination modelHerd immunityVaccinationCostEconomic savings versus health losses: the cost-effectiveness of generic antiretroviral therapy in the United States.
Walensky RP, Sax PE, Nakamura YM, Weinstein MC, Pei PP, Freedberg KA, Paltiel AD, Schackman BR. Economic savings versus health losses: the cost-effectiveness of generic antiretroviral therapy in the United States. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2013, 158: 84-92. PMID: 23318310, PMCID: PMC3664029, DOI: 10.7326/0003-4819-158-2-201301150-00002.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2012
Conceptualizing a Model
Roberts M, Russell LB, Paltiel AD, Chambers M, McEwan P, Krahn M. Conceptualizing a Model. Medical Decision Making 2012, 32: 678-689. PMID: 22990083, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x12454941.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchModel Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis
Briggs AH, Weinstein MC, Fenwick EA, Karnon J, Sculpher MJ, Paltiel AD. Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis. Medical Decision Making 2012, 32: 722-732. PMID: 22990087, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x12458348.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDecision uncertaintyCost-effectiveness acceptability curvesHealth care resource allocationEconomic evidence basePoint estimatesReporting of uncertaintyAcceptability curvesLevel of uncertaintyPolicy perspectivePerfect informationPrecise point estimatesPresentational techniquesDecision makersDecision modelingResource allocationParameter uncertaintiesBetter decisionsStructural uncertaintyDecisionsModel purposeUncertaintyInformation analysisModel-based analysisExtensive recommendationsStochastic uncertaintyConceptualizing a Model: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-2
Roberts M, Russell LB, Paltiel AD, Chambers M, McEwan P, Krahn M, Force I. Conceptualizing a Model: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-2. Value In Health 2012, 15: 804-811. PMID: 22999129, PMCID: PMC4207095, DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2012.06.016.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchModel Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-6
Briggs AH, Weinstein MC, Fenwick EA, Karnon J, Sculpher MJ, Paltiel AD, Force I. Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-6. Value In Health 2012, 15: 835-842. PMID: 22999133, DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2012.04.014.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdvisory CommitteesComparative Effectiveness ResearchDecision MakingHealth Care RationingModels, StatisticalModels, TheoreticalUncertaintyConceptsDecision uncertaintyCost-effectiveness acceptability curvesHealth care resource allocationEconomic evidence basePoint estimatesReporting of uncertaintyAcceptability curvesLevel of uncertaintyPolicy perspectivePerfect informationPrecise point estimatesPresentational techniquesDecision makersDecision modelingResource allocationParameter uncertaintiesBetter decisionsStructural uncertaintyDecisionsModel purposeUncertaintyInformation analysisModel-based analysisExtensive recommendationsStochastic uncertaintyImpact of Program Scale and Indirect Effects on the Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination Programs
Ibuka Y, Paltiel AD, Galvani AP. Impact of Program Scale and Indirect Effects on the Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination Programs. Medical Decision Making 2012, 32: 442-446. PMID: 22472916, PMCID: PMC3570235, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x12441397.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2011
Dengue vector control strategies in an urban setting: an economic modelling assessment
Luz PM, Vanni T, Medlock J, Paltiel AD, Galvani AP. Dengue vector control strategies in an urban setting: an economic modelling assessment. The Lancet 2011, 377: 1673-1680. PMID: 21546076, PMCID: PMC3409589, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(11)60246-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCost-effectiveness ratioHerd immunityAdult controlsDengue burdenIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioDengue transmissionCost-effective interventionResource-constrained countriesProbabilistic sensitivity analysesCost-effectiveness analysisIncidence of dengueFuture dengue epidemicsImmunological effectsHealth burdenRisk of dengueVector control policiesDengue epidemicsImmunityVector control strategiesBurdenDengueAdult mosquitoesInterventionEpidemicYearsThe Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine, Voluntary HIV Screening in South Africa
Walensky RP, Wood R, Fofana MO, Martinson NA, Losina E, April MD, Bassett IV, Morris BL, Freedberg KA, Paltiel AD. The Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine, Voluntary HIV Screening in South Africa. JAIDS Journal Of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 2011, 56: 26-35. PMID: 21068674, PMCID: PMC3005842, DOI: 10.1097/qai.0b013e3181fb8f24.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsVoluntary HIV screeningQuality-adjusted life yearsHIV screeningLife yearsHIV case detectionHIV testing costsTest acceptance rateIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioSubstantial clinical benefitIncidence/prevalenceOne-time screeningDirect medical costsLife expectancyQuality-adjusted life expectancyCost-effectiveness ratioAntiretroviral therapyAnnual incidenceClinical benefitHIV prevalenceClinical impactCase detectionMedical costsCare ratesHIVTest acceptance
2010
Scaling Up the 2010 World Health Organization HIV Treatment Guidelines in Resource-Limited Settings: A Model-Based Analysis
Walensky RP, Wood R, Ciaranello AL, Paltiel AD, Lorenzana SB, Anglaret X, Stoler AW, Freedberg KA, Investigators F. Scaling Up the 2010 World Health Organization HIV Treatment Guidelines in Resource-Limited Settings: A Model-Based Analysis. PLOS Medicine 2010, 7: e1000382. PMID: 21209794, PMCID: PMC3014084, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000382.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHIV treatment guidelinesART initiationTreatment guidelinesStage III/IV diseaseLong-term survival advantageEarly antiretroviral therapy initiationAntiretroviral therapy initiationLife expectancySouth African HIVResource limited settingsProjected life expectancyResource-limited settingsGreater life expectancyART regimensTherapy initiationAfrican HIVGuideline componentsSurvival advantageWHO recommendationsTenofovirRegimensStavudineSurvivalGuidelinesInitiation