2022
Optimising predictive models to prioritise viral discovery in zoonotic reservoirs
Becker D, Albery G, Sjodin A, Poisot T, Bergner L, Chen B, Cohen L, Dallas T, Eskew E, Fagre A, Farrell M, Guth S, Han B, Simmons N, Stock M, Teeling E, Carlson C. Optimising predictive models to prioritise viral discovery in zoonotic reservoirs. The Lancet Microbe 2022, 3: e625-e637. PMID: 35036970, PMCID: PMC8747432, DOI: 10.1016/s2666-5247(21)00245-7.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSystematic model validationTrait-based modelsHost-virus associationsBat hostsHost ecologyWildlife samplesBat speciesNovel hostsSampling recommendationsBridge hostsWildlifeWildlife reservoirsTarget prioritisationBatsStatistical modelMachine learning modelsModel performanceViral discoveryProcess of predictionAnalytical pipelinePrediction modelBetacoronavirusLearning modelsEcologyEnsemble model
2021
Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change
Carlson C, Bevins S, Schmid B. Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change. Global Change Biology 2021, 28: 753-769. PMID: 34796590, PMCID: PMC9299200, DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15966.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsWestern United StatesRodent communitiesSpillover riskRodent species richnessEnvironmental changesImpacts of climate changeClimate change impactsInfectious disease distributionsLong-term persistenceSpecies richnessMid-elevationsSoil biochemistryChange impactsDisease geographyChanging climateLong-term trendsClimate changePlague reservoirsReservoirs of plagueWildlife reservoirsSpillover eventsInterannual variationsPlague ecologyClimateHuman cases