Featured Publications
Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies
Wells CR, Townsend JP, Pandey A, Moghadas SM, Krieger G, Singer B, McDonald RH, Fitzpatrick MC, Galvani AP. Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies. Nature Communications 2021, 12: 356. PMID: 33414470, PMCID: PMC7788536, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20742-8.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2016
Vaccination strategies against respiratory syncytial virus
Yamin D, Jones FK, DeVincenzo JP, Gertler S, Kobiler O, Townsend JP, Galvani AP. Vaccination strategies against respiratory syncytial virus. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America 2016, 113: 13239-13244. PMID: 27799521, PMCID: PMC5135296, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1522597113.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsRespiratory syncytial virusSyncytial virusVaccination strategiesAge-specific vaccination strategiesRSV vaccine candidatesSubstantial indirect protectionInfectious viral loadOngoing clinical trialsWeekly incidence ratesTargeting of childrenDifferent age groupsInfected childrenRSV vaccinationVaccination uptakeInfant hospitalizationViral loadVaccine mechanismVaccination programClinical trialsIncidence rateCommon causeRSV incidenceVaccine candidatesAge groupsRSV symptomsClimatic and evolutionary drivers of phase shifts in the plague epidemics of colonial India
Lewnard JA, Townsend JP. Climatic and evolutionary drivers of phase shifts in the plague epidemics of colonial India. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America 2016, 113: 14601-14608. PMID: 27791071, PMCID: PMC5187705, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1604985113.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPlague resistanceEnvironmental driversIntense natural selectionWild host populationsIntense selective pressureEvolutionary driversPossible evolutionary basisHost evolutionNatural selectionDisease resistanceEvolutionary selectionFlea population dynamicsEvolutionary basisSelective pressureEvolutionary processesPopulation dynamicsHost populationsWildlife hostsLocal persistencePlague dynamicsCommensal ratsDisease agentsPowerful insightsDisease transmissionEcologyCost-effectiveness of next-generation vaccines: The case of pertussis
Fitzpatrick MC, Wenzel NS, Scarpino SV, Althouse BM, Atkins KE, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Cost-effectiveness of next-generation vaccines: The case of pertussis. Vaccine 2016, 34: 3405-3411. PMID: 27087151, DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.04.010.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsNext-generation vaccinesDuration of protectionAdult boostersChildhood seriesAge-structured transmission modelVaccination coverage ratesCases of pertussisPublic health challengePerfect efficacyPertussis vaccinationPertussis vaccinePertussis incidenceCurrent vaccinesNew vaccinesPotential vaccinesGreater efficacyVaccineVaccine improvementHealth challengesAverage durationHealth benefitsEfficacyDoseShort durationPertussisDeterminants of Human African Trypanosomiasis Elimination via Paratransgenesis
Gilbert JA, Medlock J, Townsend JP, Aksoy S, Mbah M, Galvani AP. Determinants of Human African Trypanosomiasis Elimination via Paratransgenesis. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2016, 10: e0004465. PMID: 26954675, PMCID: PMC4783105, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004465.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2015
Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases
Hollingsworth TD, Adams ER, Anderson RM, Atkins K, Bartsch S, Basáñez MG, Behrend M, Blok DJ, Chapman LA, Coffeng L, Courtenay O, Crump RE, de Vlas SJ, Dobson A, Dyson L, Farkas H, Galvani AP, Gambhir M, Gurarie D, Irvine MA, Jervis S, Keeling MJ, Kelly-Hope L, King C, Lee BY, Le Rutte EA, Lietman TM, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Medley GF, Michael E, Pandey A, Peterson JK, Pinsent A, Porco TC, Richardus JH, Reimer L, Rock KS, Singh BK, Stolk W, Swaminathan S, Torr SJ, Townsend J, Truscott J, Walker M, Zoueva A, NTD Modelling Consortium. Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases. Parasites & Vectors 2015, 8: 630. PMID: 26652272, PMCID: PMC4674954, DOI: 10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1.Peer-Reviewed Reviews, Practice Guidelines, Standards, and Consensus StatementsConceptsTropical diseasesTrue eliminationPublic health problemSoil-transmitted helminthsPersistence of diseaseSuccess of interventionsHigh riskVisceral leishmaniasisDynamics of transmissionHuman African trypanosomiasisHealth problemsEpidemiological settingsDiseaseLymphatic filariasisChagas diseaseControl initiativesAfrican trypanosomiasisInfectionInterventionUrgent needDetailed adviceSchistosomiasisTrachomaLeishmaniasisEliminationHarnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola
Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Wenzel N, Gaffney SG, Townsend JP, Meyers LA, Fallah M, Nyenswah TG, Altice FL, Atkins KE, Galvani AP. Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2015, 9: e0003794. PMID: 26024528, PMCID: PMC4449200, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003794.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsDisease OutbreaksEbolavirusHemorrhagic Fever, EbolaHumansIncidenceLiberiaModels, TheoreticalPublic HealthSierra LeoneVaccinationConceptsRing vaccinationCase isolationContact tracingLimited initial supplyPost-exposure protectionMass vaccination campaignNon-pharmaceutical control measuresPublic health agenciesCandidate vaccinesVaccination campaignVaccinationCase contactsEbola casesEbola transmissionHealth agenciesIncidence dataLow efficacyVaccineEbola outbreakEffective alternativeMore contactEbolaSierra LeoneBeneficial supplementControl measures
2014
Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa
Pandey A, Atkins KE, Medlock J, Wenzel N, Townsend JP, Childs JE, Nyenswah TG, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Galvani AP. Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa. Science 2014, 346: 991-995. PMID: 25414312, PMCID: PMC4316831, DOI: 10.1126/science.1260612.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2013
Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy
Gilbert JA, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy. Epidemics 2013, 6: 37-45. PMID: 24593920, PMCID: PMC4316830, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.11.002.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsProbabilistic uncertainty analysisParameter uncertaintiesTypical sensitivity analysisUncertainty analysisDynamic modelDynamic infectious disease modelsSensitivity analysisMathematical modelingEpidemiological modelingInfectious disease modelIntervention policiesPublic health intervention policiesGlobal uncertaintyPolicy makersModel predictionsEpidemiological outcomesQuantitative predictionsProbability of successPoint estimatesPolicyUncertaintyLevel of vaccinationRelative importanceModelingHealth policyPotential Cost-Effectiveness of Schistosomiasis Treatment for Reducing HIV Transmission in Africa – The Case of Zimbabwean Women
Mbah M, Poolman EM, Atkins KE, Orenstein EW, Meyers LA, Townsend JP, Galvani AP. Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Schistosomiasis Treatment for Reducing HIV Transmission in Africa – The Case of Zimbabwean Women. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2013, 7: e2346. PMID: 23936578, PMCID: PMC3731236, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002346.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsFemale genital schistosomiasisHIV infectionPraziquantel administrationHIV transmissionSchool-aged childrenAnnual administrationHIV prevalenceSchistosoma haematobiumCost-effective public health interventionsAntenatal clinic dataReducing HIV TransmissionBurden of HIVCases of HIVTen-year periodPublic health interventionsCost-effectiveness analysisNovel intervention strategiesGenital schistosomiasisGenital infectionSaharan AfricaCost-saving strategyNet savingsSchistosomiasis treatmentEpidemiological dataClinic dataOptimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty
Mbah M, Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty. Vaccine 2013, 31: 3079-3089. PMID: 23684837, PMCID: PMC3764605, DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.04.052.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsOptimal vaccine allocationParameter uncertaintiesMathematical modelProbability distributionConsideration of uncertaintiesOutcome measuresVaccine allocationHuman population immunitySeasonal influenza vaccinationControl of influenzaUncertainty analysisFace of uncertaintyInfluenza vaccinationVaccine efficacySeasonal influenzaPopulation immunityUncertaintyEpidemiological dataHigh riskYounger ageYoung adultsEpidemiological parametersOptimal agePrevious recommendationsVaccine
2012
The influence of altruism on influenza vaccination decisions
Shim E, Chapman GB, Townsend JP, Galvani AP. The influence of altruism on influenza vaccination decisions. Journal Of The Royal Society Interface 2012, 9: 2234-2243. PMID: 22496100, PMCID: PMC3405754, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0115.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdolescentAdultAgedAltruismDecision MakingFemaleHumansInfluenza, HumanMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalVaccinationConceptsInfluenza vaccination decisionsVaccination decisionsImpact of altruismInfluence of altruismVaccination policyGame theoryPersonal payoffAltruismInfluenza vaccinationOptimal vaccination policiesDisease burdenPublic health outcomesHealth outcomesAltruistic motivationTotal costPolicyDecisionsEpidemiological modelPotential strategyPayoffsAssumptionSurvey studyMorbidityVaccinationFundamental assumptions