2023
Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis
Menzies N, Allwood B, Dean A, Dodd P, Houben R, James L, Knight G, Meghji J, Nguyen L, Rachow A, Schumacher S, Mirzayev F, Cohen T. Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis. Nature Communications 2023, 14: 6182. PMID: 37794037, PMCID: PMC10550952, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41937-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDisability-adjusted life yearsRifampicin-resistant tuberculosisRR-TBGlobal burdenSubstantial short-term morbidityRifampicin-susceptible tuberculosisShort-term morbidityOverall disease burdenLong-term health impactsPost-treatment careTB survivorsDisease burdenTreatment outcomesTuberculosis survivorsCase detectionLife yearsRifampicin resistanceTuberculosisHealth impactsBurdenHealth expenditureDiseaseSurvivorsMathematical modeling analysisFormer Soviet Union countriesGlobal, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis
Martinez L, Warren J, Harries A, Croda J, Espinal M, Olarte R, Avedillo P, Lienhardt C, Bhatia V, Liu Q, Chakaya J, Denholm J, Lin Y, Kawatsu L, Zhu L, Horsburgh C, Cohen T, Andrews J. Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis. The Lancet Public Health 2023, 8: e511-e519. PMID: 37393090, PMCID: PMC10323309, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00097-x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis incidenceCase detection ratioIncidence rateCase detectionHigh tuberculosis incidence ratesGlobal tuberculosis control effortsIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateIncarcerated individualsTuberculosis control effortsTuberculosis case detectionTuberculosis casesNotification ratesNational incidenceTuberculosis notificationsGlobal incidenceHigh riskPrevalence estimatesNational estimatesWHO regionsIncidenceStudy periodMeta-regression frameworkTuberculosisNational Institute
2022
A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities
Chitwood M, Alves L, Bartholomay P, Couto R, Sanchez M, Castro M, Cohen T, Menzies N. A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities. PLOS Global Public Health 2022, 2: e0000725. PMID: 36962578, PMCID: PMC10021638, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000725.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPerson/yearTB incidenceCase notificationBurden estimatesIncident TB casesTB case notificationTB control strategiesDisease burden estimatesIncident TBUntreated TBTB casesTuberculosis burdenDisease burdenIncidence rateCase detectionRoutine dataDeath recordsMortality dataIncidenceSubnational estimatesDisease control resourcesBurdenHigh needTBFraction of individuals
2021
Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis
Yerramsetti S, Cohen T, Atun R, Menzies NA. Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis. The Lancet Global Health 2021, 10: e207-e215. PMID: 34895517, PMCID: PMC8800006, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00462-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPediatric tuberculosisTuberculosis incidenceStudy periodIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateReporting systemHigh-burden settingsGlobal tuberculosis burdenTuberculosis natural historyPediatric incidenceInfectious exposurePrompt diagnosisSubstantial morbidityTuberculosis burdenTuberculosis casesIncidence rateRisk factorsCase detectionGlobal incidenceProbability of infectionInfected individualsAge groupsNatural historyTuberculosisIncidenceComparison of Estimated Effectiveness of Case-Based and Population-Based Interventions on COVID-19 Containment in Taiwan
Ng TC, Cheng HY, Chang HH, Liu CC, Yang CC, Jian SW, Liu DP, Cohen T, Lin HH. Comparison of Estimated Effectiveness of Case-Based and Population-Based Interventions on COVID-19 Containment in Taiwan. JAMA Internal Medicine 2021, 181: 913-921. PMID: 33821922, PMCID: PMC8025126, DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.1644.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPopulation-based interventionsCOVID-19 casesCOVID-19 controlComparative effectiveness research studyComparative effectiveness studiesEffective public health systemCOVID-19Reproduction numberPublic health professionalsPublic health systemCategories of interventionsStochastic branching process modelCase detectionMAIN OUTCOMESubsequent infectionPresymptomatic stagePrimary casesHealth professionalsEffective reproduction numberEstimated EffectivenessSerial intervalEffectiveness studiesHealth systemContact tracingCOVID-19 containmentBayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil
Chitwood MH, Pelissari DM, da Silva G, Bartholomay P, Rocha MS, Sanchez M, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Glaziou P, Cohen T, Castro MC, Menzies NA. Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil. Epidemics 2021, 35: 100443. PMID: 33676092, PMCID: PMC8252152, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100443.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceFraction of casesUntreated active diseaseIncident TB casesTB control programsLocal disease burdenIncident TBActive diseaseTB burdenTB casesTB outcomesTB notificationsDisease burdenBayesian evidence synthesisCase detectionIncidenceEvidence synthesisAverage annual increaseControl programsBurdenAnnual rateAnnual increaseFraction of individualsAverage annual rateSources of bias
2019
Disparities in access to diagnosis and care in Blantyre, Malawi, identified through enhanced tuberculosis surveillance and spatial analysis
MacPherson P, Khundi M, Nliwasa M, Choko AT, Phiri VK, Webb EL, Dodd PJ, Cohen T, Harris R, Corbett EL. Disparities in access to diagnosis and care in Blantyre, Malawi, identified through enhanced tuberculosis surveillance and spatial analysis. BMC Medicine 2019, 17: 21. PMID: 30691470, PMCID: PMC6350280, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-019-1260-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB case notification ratesCase notification ratesCommunity health workersNotification ratesTB casesLow case detectionSingle sputum sampleInverse care lawArea-level factorsTB registrationTB clinicTB patientsClinical characteristicsTB diagnosisTuberculosis casesResultsIn totalTB surveillanceCase detectionModifiable predictorsSputum samplesHealth workersTB officersTB microscopyAdjusted modelTuberculosis surveillance
2018
Prospects for Tuberculosis Elimination in the United States: Results of a Transmission Dynamic Model
Menzies NA, Cohen T, Hill AN, Yaesoubi R, Galer K, Wolf E, Marks SM, Salomon JA. Prospects for Tuberculosis Elimination in the United States: Results of a Transmission Dynamic Model. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2018, 187: 2011-2020. PMID: 29762657, PMCID: PMC6119121, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy094.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB preventionTB eliminationLatent TB infection (LTBI) screeningTB case detectionHigh-risk populationImportant health benefitsTransmission dynamic modelIncident TBActive TBTuberculosis eliminationInfection testingTB controlTB incidenceEpidemiologic evidenceTB transmissionInfection screeningCase detectionTuberculosis trendsUS populationRisk determinantsHealth benefitsTreatment qualityUnited StatesTreatment activitiesTreatment