Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Collaborators G, Wang H, Abbas K, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abolhassani H, Abreu L, Abrigo M, Abushouk A, Adabi M, Adair T, Adebayo O, Adedeji I, Adekanmbi V, Adeoye A, Adetokunboh O, Advani S, Afshin A, Aghaali M, Agrawal A, Ahmadi K, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed M, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam T, Alanezi F, Alanzi T, Alcalde-Rabanal J, Ali M, Alicandro G, Alijanzadeh M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid S, Allebeck P, Almadi M, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi H, Altirkawi K, Alumran A, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini-Rarani M, Aminorroaya A, Amit A, Ancuceanu R, Andrei C, Androudi S, Angus C, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari I, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio C, Antony C, Anvari D, Appiah S, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin A, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Aryal K, Asadi-Pooya A, Asgari S, Jafarabadi M, Atteraya M, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho E, Quintanilla B, Ayano G, Ayanore M, Azarian G, Babaee E, Badiye A, Bagli E, Bahrami M, Bakhtiari A, Balassyano S, Banach M, Banik P, Barker-Collo S, Bärnighausen T, Barzegar A, Basu S, Baune B, Bayati M, Bazmandegan G, Bedi N, Bell M, Bennett D, Bensenor I, Berhe K, Berman A, Bertolacci G, Bhageerathy R, Bhala N, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta Z, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bisanzio D, Bisignano C, Biswas R, Bjørge T, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Bolla S, Borzì A, Borzouei S, Brady O, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Briko A, Briko N, Bumgarner B, Nagaraja S, Butt Z, dos Santos F, Cai T, Callender C, LA Alberto Cámera L, Campos-Nonato I, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero J, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia J, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cederroth C, Cerin E, Chattu V, Chin K, Chu D, Ciobanu L, Cirillo M, Comfort H, Costa V, Cowden R, Cromwell E, Croneberger A, Cunningham M, Dahlawi S, Damiani G, D'Amico E, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan P, Darwesh A, Daryani A, Gupta R, Neves J, Davletov K, De Leo D, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Desai R, Dhungana G, da Silva D, Diaz D, Dippenaar I, Djalalinia S, Thi H, Dokova K, Doku D, Dorostkar F, Doshi C, Doshmangir L, Doyle K, Dubljanin E, Duraes A, Edvardsson D, Effiong A, Sayed I, Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, El-Jaafary S, Emamian M, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Estep K, Farahmand M, Faraj A, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fazaeli A, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin V, Fereshtehnejad S, Fernandes E, Ferreira M, Filip I, Fischer F, Flohr C, Foigt N, Folayan M, Fomenkov A, Freitas M, Fukumoto T, Fuller J, Furtado J, Gad M, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Gebrehiwot A, Gebremedhin K, Gething P, Ghamari F, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gilani S, Gitimoghaddam M, Glushkova E, Gnedovskaya E, Gopalani S, Goulart A, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta S, Haagsma J, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halvaei I, Hamadeh R, Abdullah K, Han C, Handiso D, Hankey G, Haririan H, Haro J, Hasaballah A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hay S, Heibati B, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Henny K, Henry N, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hole M, Hoogar P, Hosgood H, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hoy D, Hu G, Huda T, Ibitoye S, Ikuta K, Ilesanmi O, Ilic I, Ilic M, Imani-Nasab M, Islam M, Iso H, Iwu C, Jaafari J, Jacobsen K, Jahagirdar D, Jahanmehr N, Jalali A, Jalilian F, James S, Janjani H, Jenabi E, Jha R, Jha V, Ji J, Jonas J, Joukar F, Jozwiak J, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kalani H, Kalankesh L, Kamiab Z, Kanchan T, Kapoor N, Karch A, Karimi S, Karimi S, Kassebaum N, Katikireddi S, Kawakami N, Kayode G, Keiyoro P, Keller C, Khader Y, Khalid N, Khan E, Khan M, Khang Y, Khater A, Khater M, Khazaei S, Khazaie H, Khodayari M, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim C, Kim Y, Kim Y, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Komaki H, Kopec J, Kosen S, Koul P, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krishan K, Krohn K, Defo B, Kumar G, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumar V, Kusuma D, Kyu H, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal D, Lalloo R, Lami F, Lansky S, Larson S, Larsson A, Lasrado S, Lassi Z, Lazarus J, Lee P, Lee S, Leever A, LeGrand K, Leonardi M, Li S, Lim L, Lim S, Linn S, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lopez A, Lopukhov P, Lotufo P, Lozano R, Lu A, Lunevicius R, Madadin M, Maddison E, Razek H, Razek M, Mahasha P, Mahdavi M, Malekzadeh R, Mamun A, Manafi N, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansouri B, Mansournia M, Mapoma C, Martini S, Martins-Melo F, Masaka A, Mastrogiacomo C, Mathur M, May E, McAlinden C, McGrath J, McKee M, Mehndiratta M, Mehri F, Mehta K, Meitei W, Memiah P, Mendoza W, Menezes R, Mengesha E, Mensah G, Meretoja A, Meretoja T, Mestrovic T, Michalek I, Mihretie K, Miller T, Mills E, Milne G, Mirrakhimov E, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Misganaw A, Moazen B, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohamadi E, Mohammad D, Mohammad Y, Mezerji N, Mohammadbeigi A, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed H, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Bandpei M, Mokari A, Mokdad A, Momen N, Monasta L, Mooney M, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Joo M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Velásquez I, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison S, Mosser J, Mouodi S, Mousavi S, Khaneghah A, Mueller U, Musa K, Muthupandian S, Nabavizadeh B, Naderi M, Nagarajan A, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naik G, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu J, Ndwandwe D, Negoi I, Negoi R, Ngunjiri J, Nguyen H, Nguyen T, Nigatu Y, Nikbakhsh R, Nikpoor A, Nixon M, Nnaji C, Nomura S, Noubiap J, Motlagh S, Nowak C, Oţoiu A, Odell C, Oh I, Oladnabi M, Olagunju A, Olusanya B, Olusanya J, Bali A, Ong K, Onwujekwe O, Ortiz A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov S, Øverland S, Owolabi M, Mahesh P, Padubidri J, Pakshir K, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Park J, Pasupula D, Patel J, Patel S, Patton G, Paulson K, Toroudi H, Pease S, Peden A, Pepito V, Peprah E, Pereira A, Pereira D, Perico N, Pigott D, Pilgrim T, Pilz T, Piradov M, Pirsaheb M, Pokhrel K, Postma M, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poznańska A, Prada S, Prakash S, Preotescu L, Syed Z, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Rahman M, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Ram P, Ranabhat C, Rao S, Rasella D, Rashedi V, Rastogi P, Rathi P, Rawal L, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho A, Resnikoff S, Rezaei N, Rezai M, Rezapour A, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostamian M, Rubagotti E, Rwegerera G, Sabour S, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Moghaddam S, Safari Y, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian M, Sajadi S, Salahshoor M, Salama J, Salamati P, Salem M, Salimi Y, Salomon J, Salz I, Samad Z, Samy A, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic M, Saraswathy S, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saylan M, Schaeffer L, Schiavolin S, Schwebel D, Schwendicke F, Sekerija M, Senbeta A, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou S, Serván-Mori E, Shabani M, Shahabi S, Shahbaz M, Shaheen A, Shaikh M, Shalash A, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sharafi Z, Sharara F, Sharma R, Shaw D, Sheikh A, Shin J, Shiri R, Shrime M, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sigfusdottir I, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva D, Simonetti B, Simpson K, Singh J, Skiadaresi E, Skryabin V, Soheili A, Sokhan A, Sorensen R, Soriano J, Sorrie M, Soyiri I, Spurlock E, Sreeramareddy C, Stockfelt L, Stokes M, Stubbs J, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan M, Abdulkader R, Sykes B, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb K, Tadakamadla S, Taherkhani A, Tang M, Taveira N, Taylor H, Teagle W, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Teklehaimanot B, Tessema Z, Thankappan K, Thomas N, Thrift A, Titova M, Tohidinik H, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tovani-Palone M, Traini E, Tran B, Travillian R, Trias-Llimós S, Truelsen T, Car L, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Vakilian A, Valdez P, Valli A, Vardavas C, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos A, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Vidale S, Violante F, Vlassov V, Vollset S, Vos T, Vujcic I, Vukovic A, Vukovic R, Waheed Y, Wallin M, Walters M, Wang H, Wang Y, Watson S, Wei J, Weiss J, Weldesamuel G, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford H, Wiangkham T, Wiens K, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge C, Wojtyniak B, Wolfe C, Wondmieneh A, Wool E, Wu A, Wu J, Xu G, Yamada T, Yamagishi K, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yearwood J, Yeheyis T, Yilgwan C, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon S, Lebni J, York H, Younis M, Younker T, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yousuf A, Yusefzadeh H, Moghadam T, Zakzuk J, Bin Zaman S, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zhang Z, Zheng P, Zhou M, Ziapour A, Murray C. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet 2020, 396: 1160-1203. PMID: 33069325, PMCID: PMC7566045, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30977-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAge-specific fertilityEstimate age-specific fertilityHealthy life expectancyST-GPRVital registrationNatural rate of increaseModel life table systemCombination of low fertilityEstimates of net migrationReplacement-level fertilityLife expectancyStandard demographic methodsNet migration rateUnder-5Life tablesCohort-component modelAdult mortalitySpatiotemporal Gaussian process regressionUnder-5 deathsAdult mortality ratesIndicators of fertilitySub-Saharan AfricaDemographic transitionNet migrationDemographic outcomes
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