2019
CP*Trends: An Online Tool for Comparing Cohort and Period Trends Across Cancer Sites
Holford TR, Chen HS, Annett D, Krapcho M, Dorogaeva A, Feuer EJ. CP*Trends: An Online Tool for Comparing Cohort and Period Trends Across Cancer Sites. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2019, 188: 1361-1370. PMID: 30989187, PMCID: PMC6601534, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwz089.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsColorectal cancer incidenceCancer incidenceCancer sitesContribution of periodMale prostate cancerEnd Results (SEER) dataStudy of etiologyFemale lungCancer mortalityBronchial cancerProstate cancerCohortDisease controlRelevant exposuresIncidenceAge shiftLungCancerMortalityP scoreAgeResult dataPeriod trendsPeriodPercentage of deviance
2018
Smoking and Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States From 2015 to 2065: A Comparative Modeling Approach.
Jeon J, Holford TR, Levy DT, Feuer EJ, Cao P, Tam J, Clarke L, Clarke J, Kong CY, Meza R. Smoking and Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States From 2015 to 2065: A Comparative Modeling Approach. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2018, 169: 684-693. PMID: 30304504, PMCID: PMC6242740, DOI: 10.7326/m18-1250.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer mortalityTobacco control effortsCancer mortalityLung cancer ratesLung cancerCancer ratesLung cancer burdenLung cancer deathsLung cancer screeningSmoking-related diseasesU.S. populationNational Cancer InstituteLonger life expectancyCancer burdenSmoking patternsCancer deathCessation effortsCancer screeningTobacco useCancer InstituteSmokingAdditional preventionNatural historyMortalityCancer
2015
Age‐Period‐Cohort approaches to back‐calculation of cancer incidence rate
Oh C, Holford TR. Age‐Period‐Cohort approaches to back‐calculation of cancer incidence rate. Statistics In Medicine 2015, 34: 1953-1964. PMID: 25715831, PMCID: PMC4980760, DOI: 10.1002/sim.6464.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCancer incidence ratesEstimates of incidenceHealth care planningCancer deathLung cancerCancer prevalenceCancer incidenceIncidence rateHealthy subjectsCare planningSurvival informationMortality statisticsCancerIncidence casesIncidenceAge periodDeathSubjectsCompartment modelCohortMortalityPrevalence
2012
Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model
Holford TR, Ebisu K, McKay L, Oh C, Zheng T. Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s151-s165. PMID: 22882886, PMCID: PMC3662537, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01754.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer deathsCarcinogenesis modelCancer deathLung cancer incidenceLung cancer modelTwo-stage clonal expansion modelCigarette smokingCancer incidenceCancer modelTobacco controlClonal expansion modelPopulation ratesCohort modelSmokingDeathHarmful effectsPopulation dataTemporal trendsMortalityObserved numberIncidenceControlChapter 14: Comparing the Adequacy of Carcinogenesis Models in Estimating U.S. Population Rates for Lung Cancer Mortality
Holford TR, Levy DT. Chapter 14: Comparing the Adequacy of Carcinogenesis Models in Estimating U.S. Population Rates for Lung Cancer Mortality. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s179-s189. PMID: 22882888, PMCID: PMC3478769, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01734.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer mortalityCancer mortalityCarcinogenesis modelLung cancer mortality ratesU.S. population ratesEffect of smokingCancer Prevention StudyCancer mortality ratesPopulation ratesTwo-stage clonal expansion modelEffect of ageSmoking trendsLung cancerPrevention StudyEstimates of riskMortality rateClonal expansionClonal expansion modelCohort modelSmokingIndividual cohortsCohortMortalityU.S. malesTemporal trendsChapter 4: Development of the Counterfactual Smoking Histories Used to Assess the Effects of Tobacco Control
Holford TR, Clark L. Chapter 4: Development of the Counterfactual Smoking Histories Used to Assess the Effects of Tobacco Control. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s39-s50. PMID: 22882891, PMCID: PMC3490210, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01759.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTobacco controlNational Health Interview SurveyLung cancer mortalityNumber of cigarettesLung cancer modelHealth Interview SurveySurveillance Modeling NetworkSurgeon General's ReportSmoking historyCessation ratesCigarette smokingCancer mortalityCancer modelCancer interventionInterview SurveySmokingPublic healthCigarettesReportControl programsGeneral's ReportControlMortalityWomenImpact of Reduced Tobacco Smoking on Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States During 1975–2000
Moolgavkar SH, Holford TR, Levy DT, Kong CY, Foy M, Clarke L, Jeon J, Hazelton WD, Meza R, Schultz F, McCarthy W, Boer R, Gorlova O, Gazelle GS, Kimmel M, McMahon PM, de Koning HJ, Feuer EJ. Impact of Reduced Tobacco Smoking on Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States During 1975–2000. Journal Of The National Cancer Institute 2012, 104: 541-548. PMID: 22423009, PMCID: PMC3317881, DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djs136.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer deathsLung cancer mortalityCancer deathSmoking behaviorCancer mortalityMajor public health problemTobacco controlPublic health problemTobacco control strategiesNumber of deathsSmoking historyTobacco smokingLung cancerGroups of investigatorsBirth cohortHealth problemsFirst reportSmokingMortalityDeathUnited StatesWomenMenCohortCancer
1992
Analysing the temporal effects of age, period and cohort
Holford T. Analysing the temporal effects of age, period and cohort. Statistical Methods In Medical Research 1992, 1: 317-337. PMID: 1341663, DOI: 10.1177/096228029200100306.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
1991
Trends in female breast cancer in Connecticut and the United States
Holford T, Roush G, McKay L. Trends in female breast cancer in Connecticut and the United States. Journal Of Clinical Epidemiology 1991, 44: 29-39. PMID: 1986055, DOI: 10.1016/0895-4356(91)90198-i.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsBreast cancer mortalityBirth-cohort patternFemale breast cancerBreast cancerCancer mortalityCohort patternsPostmenopausal breast cancerInvasive breast cancerBlind biopsyBirth cohortMortalityCancerCohort modelingEarly detectionPrior reportsImproved treatmentTime trendsCohortU.S. mortalityModest declineLittle evidenceImportant differencesBiopsyIncidenceUnderdetection