2024
The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study
Menzies N, Swartwood N, Cohen T, Marks S, Maloney S, Chappelle C, Miller J, Asay G, Date A, Horsburgh C, Salomon J. The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e573-e582. PMID: 39095134, PMCID: PMC11344642, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00150-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis servicesTuberculosis incidenceCenters for Disease Control and PreventionUS Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionControl and PreventionCombination of interventionsTuberculosis eliminationCountry of originIntervention scenariosInternational interventionLow tuberculosis incidenceService improvementCurrent serviceTuberculosis ProgrammeTuberculosis deathsEconomic outcomesInterventionEpidemiological dataTuberculosis burdenLong-term effectsTotal populationSimulate healthTuberculosis trendsServices
2023
Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis
Menzies N, Allwood B, Dean A, Dodd P, Houben R, James L, Knight G, Meghji J, Nguyen L, Rachow A, Schumacher S, Mirzayev F, Cohen T. Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis. Nature Communications 2023, 14: 6182. PMID: 37794037, PMCID: PMC10550952, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41937-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAntitubercular AgentsGlobal Burden of DiseaseHumansModels, TheoreticalRifampinTuberculosisTuberculosis, Multidrug-ResistantConceptsDisability-adjusted life yearsRifampicin-resistant tuberculosisRR-TBGlobal burdenSubstantial short-term morbidityRifampicin-susceptible tuberculosisShort-term morbidityOverall disease burdenLong-term health impactsPost-treatment careTB survivorsDisease burdenTreatment outcomesTuberculosis survivorsCase detectionLife yearsRifampicin resistanceTuberculosisHealth impactsBurdenHealth expenditureDiseaseSurvivorsMathematical modeling analysisFormer Soviet Union countries
2021
Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis
Yerramsetti S, Cohen T, Atun R, Menzies NA. Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis. The Lancet Global Health 2021, 10: e207-e215. PMID: 34895517, PMCID: PMC8800006, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00462-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPediatric tuberculosisTuberculosis incidenceStudy periodIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateReporting systemHigh-burden settingsGlobal tuberculosis burdenTuberculosis natural historyPediatric incidenceInfectious exposurePrompt diagnosisSubstantial morbidityTuberculosis burdenTuberculosis casesIncidence rateRisk factorsCase detectionGlobal incidenceProbability of infectionInfected individualsAge groupsNatural historyTuberculosisIncidenceEvaluating the reliability of mobility metrics from aggregated mobile phone data as proxies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA: a population-based study
Kishore N, Taylor AR, Jacob PE, Vembar N, Cohen T, Buckee CO, Menzies NA. Evaluating the reliability of mobility metrics from aggregated mobile phone data as proxies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA: a population-based study. The Lancet Digital Health 2021, 4: e27-e36. PMID: 34740555, PMCID: PMC8563007, DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(21)00214-4.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSARS-CoV-2 transmissionPopulation-based studyLaboratory-confirmed casesSARS-CoV-2 pandemicSARS-CoV-2Non-pharmaceutical interventionsCOVID-19 transmissionCOVID-19 casesEpidemiological dataReproduction numberEffective reproduction numberHealth StatisticsEquity of accessEpidemic trajectoriesCOVID-19Public healthTransmission indicatorsPopulation levelContact patternsComparison of Estimated Effectiveness of Case-Based and Population-Based Interventions on COVID-19 Containment in Taiwan
Ng TC, Cheng HY, Chang HH, Liu CC, Yang CC, Jian SW, Liu DP, Cohen T, Lin HH. Comparison of Estimated Effectiveness of Case-Based and Population-Based Interventions on COVID-19 Containment in Taiwan. JAMA Internal Medicine 2021, 181: 913-921. PMID: 33821922, PMCID: PMC8025126, DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.1644.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdultCommunicable Disease ControlContact TracingCOVID-19FemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalPandemicsQuarantineSARS-CoV-2TaiwanConceptsPopulation-based interventionsCOVID-19 casesCOVID-19 controlComparative effectiveness research studyComparative effectiveness studiesEffective public health systemCOVID-19Reproduction numberPublic health professionalsPublic health systemCategories of interventionsStochastic branching process modelCase detectionMAIN OUTCOMESubsequent infectionPresymptomatic stagePrimary casesHealth professionalsEffective reproduction numberEstimated EffectivenessSerial intervalEffectiveness studiesHealth systemContact tracingCOVID-19 containmentThe Impact of Changes in Diagnostic Testing Practices on Estimates of COVID-19 Transmission in the United States
Pitzer VE, Chitwood M, Havumaki J, Menzies NA, Perniciaro S, Warren JL, Weinberger DM, Cohen T. The Impact of Changes in Diagnostic Testing Practices on Estimates of COVID-19 Transmission in the United States. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2021, 190: 1908-1917. PMID: 33831148, PMCID: PMC8083380, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab089.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Diagnostic testingRespiratory syndrome coronavirus 2Reproductive numberPercentage of patientsSyndrome coronavirus 2Coronavirus disease 2019Diagnostic testing practicesFraction of casesCOVID-19 transmissionEffective reproductive numberCoronavirus 2Disease 2019Testing practicesCoronavirus diseaseBasic reproductive numberLevel of interventionEstimates of R0Daily numberAdaptive Policies to Balance Health Benefits and Economic Costs of Physical Distancing Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Yaesoubi R, Havumaki J, Chitwood MH, Menzies NA, Gonsalves G, Salomon JA, Paltiel AD, Cohen T. Adaptive Policies to Balance Health Benefits and Economic Costs of Physical Distancing Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Medical Decision Making 2021, 41: 386-392. PMID: 33504258, PMCID: PMC8084913, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x21990371.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAdaptive policiesClear decision rulesSocial costsEconomic costsPolicy makersPhysical distancing policiesDecision toolPolicyPhysical distancing interventionsDistancing policiesModel-based experimentsDecision rulesReal-time surveillance dataCostCOVID-19 pandemicMakersShorter overall durationMore complex modelsHealth benefitsComplex modelsPandemicCurrent pandemicCOVID-19BenefitsRules
2020
Impact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States
Menzies NA, Bellerose M, Testa C, Swartwood N, Malyuta Y, Cohen T, Marks SM, Hill AN, Date AA, Maloney SA, Bowden SE, Grills AW, Salomon JA. Impact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2020, 202: 1567-1575. PMID: 32645277, PMCID: PMC7706168, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.202003-0526oc.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsGlobal TB controlTB incidence trendsEnd TB StrategyTB controlTB casesIncidence trendsEconomic burdenWorld Health Organization's End TB StrategyTB incidence rateGlobal tuberculosis controlHigh-burden countriesTotal economic burdenMajor health benefitsBase case scenarioBirth countryTB incidenceTB epidemiologyTuberculosis controlTB StrategyIncidence rateHealthcare costsIncidence reductionInfection riskTuberculosisSubstantial healthCost-effectiveness of post-treatment follow-up examinations and secondary prevention of tuberculosis in a high-incidence setting: a model-based analysis
Marx FM, Cohen T, Menzies NA, Salomon JA, Theron G, Yaesoubi R. Cost-effectiveness of post-treatment follow-up examinations and secondary prevention of tuberculosis in a high-incidence setting: a model-based analysis. The Lancet Global Health 2020, 8: e1223-e1233. PMID: 32827484, PMCID: PMC7549318, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30227-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAftercareCost-Benefit AnalysisHumansIncidenceModels, TheoreticalSecondary PreventionSouth AfricaTuberculosisConceptsIsoniazid preventive therapySecondary preventive therapyHigh-incidence settingsPost-treatment followPreventive therapyTuberculosis controlTuberculosis incidenceTreatment completionTuberculosis case findingOverall disease burdenHigh tuberculosis incidenceTuberculosis-endemic settingHigh-incidence communityFirst yearHealth system costsRecurrent tuberculosisSecondary preventionAnnual followTuberculosis treatmentDisease burdenHigh riskCase findingSingle followSuburban Cape TownPreventive interventionsAdaptive guidelines for the treatment of gonorrhea to increase the effective life span of antibiotics among men who have sex with men in the United States: A mathematical modeling study
Yaesoubi R, Cohen T, Hsu K, Gift TL, Chesson H, Salomon JA, Grad YH. Adaptive guidelines for the treatment of gonorrhea to increase the effective life span of antibiotics among men who have sex with men in the United States: A mathematical modeling study. PLOS Medicine 2020, 17: e1003077. PMID: 32243443, PMCID: PMC7122693, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003077.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAnti-Bacterial AgentsGonorrheaHomosexuality, MaleHumansLongevityMaleModels, TheoreticalPractice Guidelines as TopicTreatment OutcomeUnited StatesConceptsFirst-line antibioticsPrevalence of resistanceMSM populationGonorrhea casesPrevalence of gonorrheaTreatment of gonorrheaTransmission of gonorrheaIncidence of gonorrhoeaGonococcal antimicrobial resistanceProportion of casesAlternative surveillance strategiesBurden of gonorrheaEffective surveillance systemTreatment guidelinesGonorrhea treatmentGonorrhoea transmissionClinical effectivenessOverall burdenSurveillance estimatesLife spanGonorrheaDrug susceptibilitySurveillance findingsSurveillance strategiesSurveillance programComparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California
Menzies NA, Parriott A, Shrestha S, Dowdy DW, Cohen T, Salomon JA, Marks SM, Hill AN, Winston CA, Asay GR, Barry P, Readhead A, Flood J, Kahn JG, Shete PB. Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2020, 201: 356-365. PMID: 31626560, PMCID: PMC7464931, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.201907-1289oc.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceTB casesAdditional interventionsTuberculosis epidemiologyPublic health prioritizationTreatment of LTBIInfection control interventionsPotential intervention effectsLTBI testingTB servicesLTBI diagnosisLTBI prevalenceAverage annual declineEpidemiologic projectionsSustained reductionTreatment interventionsControl interventionsTB determinantsDefinitive dataIntervention effectsAnnual declineLocal transmissionIncidenceLTBIIntervention
2019
Cost‐effectiveness of expanding the capacity of opioid agonist treatment in Ukraine: dynamic modeling analysis
Morozova O, Crawford FW, Cohen T, Paltiel AD, Altice FL. Cost‐effectiveness of expanding the capacity of opioid agonist treatment in Ukraine: dynamic modeling analysis. Addiction 2019, 115: 437-450. PMID: 31478285, PMCID: PMC7015766, DOI: 10.1111/add.14797.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsOpioid agonist treatmentOpioid use disorderOAT coverageAgonist treatmentGross domestic productOpioid use initiationOpioid addiction epidemicOAT accessHIV epidemicUse disordersAddiction epidemicCapita gross domestic productPay thresholdsTreatment demandUse initiationAddiction treatmentIncremental costBaseline capacityTreatmentPotential peer effectsDomestic productTreatment spilloversEpidemicPeer effectsCoverage levels
2018
Prospects for Tuberculosis Elimination in the United States: Results of a Transmission Dynamic Model
Menzies NA, Cohen T, Hill AN, Yaesoubi R, Galer K, Wolf E, Marks SM, Salomon JA. Prospects for Tuberculosis Elimination in the United States: Results of a Transmission Dynamic Model. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2018, 187: 2011-2020. PMID: 29762657, PMCID: PMC6119121, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy094.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB preventionTB eliminationLatent TB infection (LTBI) screeningTB case detectionHigh-risk populationImportant health benefitsTransmission dynamic modelIncident TBActive TBTuberculosis eliminationInfection testingTB controlTB incidenceEpidemiologic evidenceTB transmissionInfection screeningCase detectionTuberculosis trendsUS populationRisk determinantsHealth benefitsTreatment qualityUnited StatesTreatment activitiesTreatmentProgression from latent infection to active disease in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions
Menzies NA, Wolf E, Connors D, Bellerose M, Sbarra AN, Cohen T, Hill AN, Yaesoubi R, Galer K, White PJ, Abubakar I, Salomon JA. Progression from latent infection to active disease in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2018, 18: e228-e238. PMID: 29653698, PMCID: PMC6070419, DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30134-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis transmission modelActive diseaseCumulative incidenceRisk factorsSystematic reviewNatural historyFeatures of epidemiologyDisease natural historyIndividual risk factorsTuberculosis natural historyEarliest available dateWeb of ScienceAnnual incidenceCochrane LibraryTuberculosis incidenceInclusion criteriaFuture tuberculosisLatent infectionInitial infectionIncidenceSubstantial proportionPopulation groupsAvailable dateInfectionDiseaseTuberculosis control interventions targeted to previously treated people in a high-incidence setting: a modelling study
Marx FM, Yaesoubi R, Menzies NA, Salomon JA, Bilinski A, Beyers N, Cohen T. Tuberculosis control interventions targeted to previously treated people in a high-incidence setting: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health 2018, 6: e426-e435. PMID: 29472018, PMCID: PMC5849574, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(18)30022-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh-incidence settingsIsoniazid preventive therapyPreventive therapyTuberculosis treatmentActive casesHIV prevalenceTuberculosis controlControl interventionsIncident tuberculosis casesPrevious tuberculosis treatmentTuberculosis control interventionsTB case notificationHigh-risk groupTransmission dynamic modelTuberculosis deathsHigh tuberculosisRecurrent diseasePrevalent tuberculosisTuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidenceCase notificationTreatment outcomesTuberculosis morbidityTuberculosis epidemicAdditional interventionsThe cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination strategies for polyvalent meningococcal vaccines in Burkina Faso: A transmission dynamic modeling study
Yaesoubi R, Trotter C, Colijn C, Yaesoubi M, Colombini A, Resch S, Kristiansen PA, LaForce FM, Cohen T. The cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination strategies for polyvalent meningococcal vaccines in Burkina Faso: A transmission dynamic modeling study. PLOS Medicine 2018, 15: e1002495. PMID: 29364884, PMCID: PMC5783340, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002495.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsBurkina FasoCost-Benefit AnalysisHealth PolicyImmunization ProgramsMeningococcal VaccinesModels, TheoreticalVaccinationVaccines, ConjugateConceptsDisability-adjusted life yearsMeningococcal casesConjugate vaccineMeningitis beltVaccination strategiesMeningococcal serogroupsStrain replacementNationwide immunization campaignPolyvalent meningococcal vaccineMeningococcal conjugate vaccineCurrent World Health OrganizationAfrican meningitis beltAlternative vaccination strategiesAlternative vaccination policiesWorld Health OrganizationMeningococcal transmissionReactive campaignsMeningococcal vaccineImmunization campaignVaccination policyPolyvalent vaccineMeningitis epidemicsReactive vaccinationVaccine policyVaccine price
2017
Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study
Verguet S, Riumallo-Herl C, Gomez GB, Menzies NA, Houben RMGJ, Sumner T, Lalli M, White RG, Salomon JA, Cohen T, Foster N, Chatterjee S, Sweeney S, Baena IG, Lönnroth K, Weil DE, Vassall A. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health 2017, 5: e1123-e1132. PMID: 29025634, PMCID: PMC5640802, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(17)30341-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsCatastrophic IllnessHealth Care CostsHumansIndiaModels, TheoreticalSouth AfricaTuberculosisConceptsMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisEnd TB StrategyTuberculosis servicesCatastrophic costsTB StrategyDrug-sensitive tuberculosisCatastrophic financial burdenAnnual household incomeTuberculosis careTuberculosis controlEconomic burdenTuberculosisIntervention effectsMelinda Gates FoundationHousehold incomeIndirect costsFinancial burdenExpansion of accessPatientsTotal annual household incomeTreatmentCareGates FoundationBurdenIntervention scenariosAntimicrobial Resistance Risks of Cholera Prophylaxis for United Nations Peacekeepers
Kunkel A, Lewnard JA, Pitzer VE, Cohen T. Antimicrobial Resistance Risks of Cholera Prophylaxis for United Nations Peacekeepers. Antimicrobial Agents And Chemotherapy 2017, 61: 10.1128/aac.00026-17. PMID: 28533237, PMCID: PMC5527623, DOI: 10.1128/aac.00026-17.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDrug-resistant infectionsAntimicrobial chemoprophylaxisDrug-sensitive infectionsDrug resistance generationCholera importationChemoprophylaxisDrug resistanceImportation eventsInfectionAntibiotic resistanceAntimicrobial resistance risksRiskRelative benefitsResistance generationCholeraPotential resistance risksPotential benefitsResistance riskProphylaxisPrevalencePriority-Setting for Novel Drug Regimens to Treat Tuberculosis: An Epidemiologic Model
Kendall EA, Shrestha S, Cohen T, Nuermberger E, Dooley KE, Gonzalez-Angulo L, Churchyard GJ, Nahid P, Rich ML, Bansbach C, Forissier T, Lienhardt C, Dowdy DW. Priority-Setting for Novel Drug Regimens to Treat Tuberculosis: An Epidemiologic Model. PLOS Medicine 2017, 14: e1002202. PMID: 28045934, PMCID: PMC5207633, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002202.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAntitubercular AgentsClinical ProtocolsEpidemicsHumansIncidenceIndiaModels, TheoreticalTuberculosisConceptsEase of adherenceTB mortalityTB incidenceNovel drug regimensTB regimenNovel regimenDrug regimensRegimen characteristicsTreatment durationTreatment efficacyRR-TB treatmentTB treatment efficacyRifampicin-resistant TBTB treatment durationDynamic transmission modelTB regimensNew regimensRR-TBTB treatmentMedical contraindicationsPatients' qualitySafety profileBaseline prevalenceTB epidemicTuberculosis treatment
2016
Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining tuberculosis/HIV coepidemic
Kunkel A, Crawford FW, Shepherd J, Cohen T. Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining tuberculosis/HIV coepidemic. AIDS 2016, 30: 2715-2723. PMID: 27782966, PMCID: PMC5089846, DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000001235.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsContinuous isoniazid preventive therapyIsoniazid preventive therapyIsoniazid-resistant tuberculosisTB epidemicPreventive therapyEffective TB treatmentLatent TB infectionTB drug resistanceTransmission dynamic modelTB infectionMortality benefitTB treatmentHIV controlHIV incidenceTB incidenceTB transmissionCase findingDrug resistanceIncidenceTuberculosisInitial benefitPLHIVHIVTherapyEpidemic