2023
Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics
Dodd P, Shaweno D, Ku C, Glaziou P, Pretorius C, Hayes R, MacPherson P, Cohen T, Ayles H. Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics. Nature Communications 2023, 14: 1639. PMID: 36964130, PMCID: PMC10037365, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37314-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh HIV prevalence settingsEstimation of burdenHIV prevalence settingsGeneralized HIV epidemicsTB transmission modelAntiretroviral therapyTB infectionTB incidenceHIV prevalenceTB prevalencePrevalence settingsTB epidemicHIV epidemicHigh burdenBurden estimatesNotification dataAnnual riskSingle pathogenIntervention impactTherapy effectsTuberculosisPrevalenceEpidemicBurdenAfrican countries
2022
Re-evaluating the health impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis preventive treatment for modern HIV cohorts on antiretroviral therapy: a modelling analysis using data from Tanzania
Zhu J, Lyatuu G, Sudfeld CR, Kiravu A, Sando D, Machumi L, Minde J, Chisonjela F, Cohen T, Menzies NA. Re-evaluating the health impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis preventive treatment for modern HIV cohorts on antiretroviral therapy: a modelling analysis using data from Tanzania. The Lancet Global Health 2022, 10: e1646-e1654. PMID: 36240830, PMCID: PMC9553191, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00372-2.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIsoniazid preventive therapyCD4 cell countAntiretroviral therapyCell countART cohortAverage CD4 cell countHigher CD4 cell countsLarge HIV treatment programHealth impactsTuberculosis preventive treatmentHIV treatment programsLifetime costsIncremental lifetime costLifetime health benefitsCourse of infectionGreater health gainsLong-term healthART initiationTreat guidelinesHIV cohortPreventive therapyTuberculosis riskUS National InstitutesHIV programsSubgroup analysis
2020
Evaluation of 6-Month Versus Continuous Isoniazid Preventive Therapy for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Adults Living With HIV/AIDS in Malawi.
Hsieh YL, Jahn A, Menzies NA, Yaesoubi R, Salomon JA, Girma B, Gunde L, Eaton JW, Auld A, Odo M, Kiyiika CN, Kalua T, Chiwandira B, Mpunga JU, Mbendra K, Corbett L, Hosseinipour MC, Cohen T, Kunkel A. Evaluation of 6-Month Versus Continuous Isoniazid Preventive Therapy for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Adults Living With HIV/AIDS in Malawi. JAIDS Journal Of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 2020, 85: 643-650. PMID: 33177475, PMCID: PMC8564780, DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002497.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIsoniazid preventive therapyIPT programIPT strategyPreventive therapyContinuous isoniazid preventive therapyMore TB casesHIV-positive adultsCases of tuberculosisAnticipated health effectsComparable health benefitsHIV/AIDSCause deathAntiretroviral therapyTB casesTB controlTB incidenceDrug costsMalawi MinistryMean reductionTuberculosisMycobacterium tuberculosisTherapyAnticipated health impactsHealth effectsHealth benefits
2016
Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
Houben RMGJ, Menzies NA, Sumner T, Huynh GH, Arinaminpathy N, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Lin HH, Wu CY, Mandal S, Pandey S, Suen SC, Bendavid E, Azman AS, Dowdy DW, Bacaër N, Rhines AS, Feldman MW, Handel A, Whalen CC, Chang ST, Wagner BG, Eckhoff PA, Trauer JM, Denholm JT, McBryde ES, Cohen T, Salomon JA, Pretorius C, Lalli M, Eaton JW, Boccia D, Hosseini M, Gomez GB, Sahu S, Daniels C, Ditiu L, Chin DP, Wang L, Chadha VK, Rade K, Dewan P, Hippner P, Charalambous S, Grant AD, Churchyard G, Pillay Y, Mametja LD, Kimerling ME, Vassall A, White RG. Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models. The Lancet Global Health 2016, 4: e806-e815. PMID: 27720688, PMCID: PMC6375908, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(16)30199-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsEnd TB Strategy targetsPreventive therapyTuberculosis incidenceContinuous isoniazid preventive therapyGlobal tuberculosis targetsIsoniazid preventive therapySymptoms of tuberculosisActive case findingNational Tuberculosis ProgrammeEnd TB StrategyHigh-burden countriesAntiretroviral therapyLatent tuberculosisStrategy targetsTuberculosis burdenTuberculosis careTuberculosis ProgrammeTB StrategyTuberculosis transmissionHealth centersAdditional interventionsTuberculosis interventionsCase findingTuberculosis epidemiologyEpidemiological impactThe transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in high burden settings
Yates TA, Khan PY, Knight GM, Taylor JG, McHugh TD, Lipman M, White RG, Cohen T, Cobelens FG, Wood R, Moore DA, Abubakar I. The transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in high burden settings. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2016, 16: 227-238. PMID: 26867464, DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(15)00499-5.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh-burden settingsBurden settingsTuberculosis infection controlMycobacterium tuberculosis transmissionEffects of HIVHealth care workersDrug-resistant strainsAntiretroviral therapyPerson transmissionTuberculosis transmissionInfection controlTransmission riskAirborne transmissionMycobacterium tuberculosisWells-Riley equationPresent research prioritiesTransmission dynamicsResearch prioritiesHIVEffective strategyTherapyTuberculosisSettingTrials
2015
Evaluating the potential impact of enhancing HIV treatment and tuberculosis control programmes on the burden of tuberculosis
Chindelevitch L, Menzies NA, Pretorius C, Stover J, Salomon JA, Cohen T. Evaluating the potential impact of enhancing HIV treatment and tuberculosis control programmes on the burden of tuberculosis. Journal Of The Royal Society Interface 2015, 12: 20150146. PMID: 25878131, PMCID: PMC4424692, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0146.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAntiretroviral therapyTB incidenceTB burdenBurden of tuberculosisTuberculosis Control ProgrammePotential epidemiological impactART eligibilityMortality benefitTB programsHIV treatmentTB prevalenceTuberculosis incidenceEpidemiological impactART useProgram improvementHIVTreatment effectivenessIncidenceMortalityGreater reductionBurdenTBSaharan AfricaControl programsEligibility
2014
The Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on Mortality in HIV Positive People during Tuberculosis Treatment: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Odone A, Amadasi S, White RG, Cohen T, Grant AD, Houben RM. The Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on Mortality in HIV Positive People during Tuberculosis Treatment: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. PLOS ONE 2014, 9: e112017. PMID: 25391135, PMCID: PMC4229142, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0112017.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHIV-positive peopleAntiretroviral therapyTB treatmentTuberculosis treatmentSystematic reviewHIV-positive TB casesCoverage of ARTRisk of deathMain outcome measuresOutcomes of interestTB casesDual epidemicsTB therapyRelative riskOutcome measuresPooled estimatesStudy populationProportion of individualsFatality ratioPositive peopleMeta-AnalysisART statusClinical settingManual searchMortalityThe potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on tuberculosis outcomes in South Africa
Pretorius C, Menzies NA, Chindelevitch L, Cohen T, Cori A, Eaton JW, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Hallett TB, Salomon JA, Stover J, White RG, Dodd PJ. The potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on tuberculosis outcomes in South Africa. AIDS 2014, 28: s25-s34. PMID: 24468944, DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000000085.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAntiretroviral therapyTB incidenceART expansionHIV treatment policyHIV-positive individualsART eligibility criteriaTuberculosis outcomesART eligibilitySurvival benefitTB burdenTB casesHIV transmissionART coverageHIV treatmentHIV epidemicMortality reductionPositive individualsEligibility criteriaTreatment policyART servicesTuberculosisIncidenceCurrent eligibilityIndependent mathematical modelsRecent findings
2013
Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.
Eaton JW, Menzies NA, Stover J, Cambiano V, Chindelevitch L, Cori A, Hontelez JA, Humair S, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Mishra S, Mitchell KM, Nichols BE, Vickerman P, Bakker R, Bärnighausen T, Bershteyn A, Bloom DE, Boily MC, Chang ST, Cohen T, Dodd PJ, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Lundgren J, Martin NK, Mikkelsen E, Mountain E, Pham QD, Pickles M, Phillips A, Platt L, Pretorius C, Prudden HJ, Salomon JA, van de Vijver DA, de Vlas SJ, Wagner BG, White RG, Wilson DP, Zhang L, Blandford J, Meyer-Rath G, Remme M, Revill P, Sangrujee N, Terris-Prestholt F, Doherty M, Shaffer N, Easterbrook PJ, Hirnschall G, Hallett TB. Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models. The Lancet Global Health 2013, 2: e23-34. PMID: 25104632, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(13)70172-4.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHIV-positive adultsAdult antiretroviral therapyAntiretroviral therapyCD4 countTreatment coveragePotential health benefitsConcentrated epidemicsDALY avertedHealth benefitsEligibility criteriaExpansion of eligibilityEarlier eligibilityCD4 count thresholdHealth system perspectiveHead gross domestic productMiddle-income settingsGeneral populationHealth outcomesKey populationsTherapyHealth interventionsHealth budgetIncremental costMelinda Gates FoundationEligibility
2012
Population Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Diagnosis with Xpert MTB/RIF: A Dynamic Simulation and Economic Evaluation
Menzies NA, Cohen T, Lin HH, Murray M, Salomon JA. Population Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Diagnosis with Xpert MTB/RIF: A Dynamic Simulation and Economic Evaluation. PLOS Medicine 2012, 9: e1001347. PMID: 23185139, PMCID: PMC3502465, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001347.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMultidrug-resistant TBCost-effectiveness ratioInitial diagnosisXpert MTB/RIF testMTB/RIF testXpert MTB/RIFIntroduction of XpertTB natural historyTB-HIV coinfectionMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisHigh HIV prevalenceMTB/RIFHealth system costsImplementation of XpertHealth impactsPopulation health impactCost-effectiveness resultsLong-term transmission dynamicsWorld Health OrganizationAntiretroviral therapyTB casesTB deathsTB morbidityHIV prevalenceRIF test
2010
Prolonged deferral of antiretroviral therapy in the SAPIT trial: Did we need a clinical trial to tell us that this would increase mortality?
Boulle A, Clayden P, Cohen K, Cohen T, Conradie F, Dong K, Geffen N, Grimwood A, Hurtado R, Kenyon C, Lawn S, Maartens G, Meintjes G, Mendelson M, Murray M, Rangaka M, Sanne I, Spencer D, Taljaard J, Variava E, Venter WD, Wilson D. Prolonged deferral of antiretroviral therapy in the SAPIT trial: Did we need a clinical trial to tell us that this would increase mortality? South African Medical Journal 2010, 100: 566,568,570-571. PMID: 20822639, DOI: 10.7196/samj.4434.Peer-Reviewed Original Research