2024
The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study
Menzies N, Swartwood N, Cohen T, Marks S, Maloney S, Chappelle C, Miller J, Beeler Asay G, Date A, Horsburgh C, Salomon J. The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e573-e582. PMID: 39095134, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00150-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis servicesTuberculosis incidenceCenters for Disease Control and PreventionUS Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionControl and PreventionCombination of interventionsTuberculosis eliminationCountry of originIntervention scenariosInternational interventionLow tuberculosis incidenceService improvementCurrent serviceTuberculosis ProgrammeTuberculosis deathsEconomic outcomesInterventionEpidemiological dataTuberculosis burdenLong-term effectsTotal populationSimulate healthTuberculosis trendsServicesDisparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data.
Li Y, Regan M, Swartwood N, Barham T, Beeler Asay G, Cohen T, Hill A, Horsburgh C, Khan A, Marks S, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Menzies N. Disparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2024, 177: 418-427. PMID: 38560914, DOI: 10.7326/m23-2975.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence rate ratiosNon-Hispanic white personsTB incidence rateRate ratiosIncidence rateTB incidenceSocial determinants of healthRelated disparitiesWhite personsHealth equity goalsU.S.-born populationAbsolute disparityDeterminants of healthTB registry dataRacial/ethnic minority populationsCenters for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionIncidence rate differenceTB casesYoung personControl and PreventionState of residenceAI/AN personsSocial determinantsRacial/ethnic disparities
2023
Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis
Martinez L, Warren J, Harries A, Croda J, Espinal M, Olarte R, Avedillo P, Lienhardt C, Bhatia V, Liu Q, Chakaya J, Denholm J, Lin Y, Kawatsu L, Zhu L, Horsburgh C, Cohen T, Andrews J. Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis. The Lancet Public Health 2023, 8: e511-e519. PMID: 37393090, PMCID: PMC10323309, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00097-x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis incidenceCase detection ratioIncidence rateCase detectionHigh tuberculosis incidence ratesGlobal tuberculosis control effortsIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateIncarcerated individualsTuberculosis control effortsTuberculosis case detectionTuberculosis casesNotification ratesNational incidenceTuberculosis notificationsGlobal incidenceHigh riskPrevalence estimatesNational estimatesWHO regionsIncidenceStudy periodMeta-regression frameworkTuberculosisNational InstituteTransmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics
Dodd P, Shaweno D, Ku C, Glaziou P, Pretorius C, Hayes R, MacPherson P, Cohen T, Ayles H. Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics. Nature Communications 2023, 14: 1639. PMID: 36964130, PMCID: PMC10037365, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37314-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh HIV prevalence settingsEstimation of burdenHIV prevalence settingsGeneralized HIV epidemicsTB transmission modelAntiretroviral therapyTB infectionTB incidenceHIV prevalenceTB prevalencePrevalence settingsTB epidemicHIV epidemicHigh burdenBurden estimatesNotification dataAnnual riskSingle pathogenIntervention impactTherapy effectsTuberculosisPrevalenceEpidemicBurdenAfrican countries
2022
Evaluating spatially adaptive guidelines for the treatment of gonorrhea to reduce the incidence of gonococcal infection and increase the effective lifespan of antibiotics
Yaesoubi R, Cohen T, Hsu K, Gift TL, St. Cyr SB, Salomon JA, Grad YH. Evaluating spatially adaptive guidelines for the treatment of gonorrhea to reduce the incidence of gonococcal infection and increase the effective lifespan of antibiotics. PLOS Computational Biology 2022, 18: e1009842. PMID: 35139073, PMCID: PMC8863219, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009842.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence of gonorrhoeaTreatment guidelinesResistance prevalenceGonorrhea casesTreatment of gonorrheaNational surveillance systemPrevalence of resistanceTransmission dynamic modelGonococcal infectionGonorrhea treatmentMSM populationAntibiotic susceptibilityGonorrheaStandardized guidelinesSurveillance dataPrevalenceIncidenceAntibioticsPotential strategySurveillance systemAbsence of pointsGuidelinesCurrent strategiesEffective lifespanMen
2021
Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis
Yerramsetti S, Cohen T, Atun R, Menzies NA. Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis. The Lancet Global Health 2021, 10: e207-e215. PMID: 34895517, PMCID: PMC8800006, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00462-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPediatric tuberculosisTuberculosis incidenceStudy periodIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateReporting systemHigh-burden settingsGlobal tuberculosis burdenTuberculosis natural historyPediatric incidenceInfectious exposurePrompt diagnosisSubstantial morbidityTuberculosis burdenTuberculosis casesIncidence rateRisk factorsCase detectionGlobal incidenceProbability of infectionInfected individualsAge groupsNatural historyTuberculosisIncidenceTrends, Mechanisms, and Racial/Ethnic Differences of Tuberculosis Incidence in the US-Born Population Aged 50 Years or Older in the United States
Kim S, Cohen T, Horsburgh CR, Miller JW, Hill AN, Marks SM, Li R, Kammerer JS, Salomon JA, Menzies NA. Trends, Mechanisms, and Racial/Ethnic Differences of Tuberculosis Incidence in the US-Born Population Aged 50 Years or Older in the United States. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2021, 74: 1594-1603. PMID: 34323959, PMCID: PMC8799750, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab668.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsChildCohort StudiesEthnicityHumansIncidencePopulation SurveillanceTuberculosisUnited StatesConceptsAnnual percentage declineIncidence rateRemote infectionBirth cohortOlder individualsPercentage declineUS National TB Surveillance SystemAverage annual percentage declineNational TB Surveillance SystemRace/ethnicity strataTB incidence rateTB surveillance systemLow-incidence settingsEthnic differencesEarlier birth cohortsRecent birth cohortsRace/ethnicityOverall cohortTB casesTB incidenceIncidence settingsRecent infectionTB ratesTuberculosis incidenceRisk factorsThe positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study
Yang C, Kang J, Lu L, Guo X, Shen X, Cohen T, Menzies NA. The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study. BMC Medicine 2021, 19: 95. PMID: 33874940, PMCID: PMC8055441, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB casesTB incidenceNew TB casesTB control strategiesEpidemiology of tuberculosisMeaningful health benefitsChinese urban populationMolecular epidemiologic studiesTransmission dynamic modelSongjiang DistrictRecent infectionTB interventionsTB transmissionTB notificationsEpidemiological featuresPreventive treatmentActive screeningEpidemiologic studiesLatent infectionTB policyDemographic dataIndirect protectionTuberculosisEpidemiological driversLocal transmissionThe escalating tuberculosis crisis in central and South American prisons
Walter KS, Martinez L, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Sequera VG, Sanabria G, Cohen T, Ko AI, García-Basteiro AL, Rueda ZV, López-Olarte RA, Espinal MA, Croda J, Andrews JR. The escalating tuberculosis crisis in central and South American prisons. The Lancet 2021, 397: 1591-1596. PMID: 33838724, PMCID: PMC9393884, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32578-2.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchIncidence and prevalence of tuberculosis in incarcerated populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Cords O, Martinez L, Warren JL, O’Marr J, Walter KS, Cohen T, Zheng J, Ko AI, Croda J, Andrews JR. Incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis in incarcerated populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis. The Lancet Public Health 2021, 6: e300-e308. PMID: 33765455, PMCID: PMC8168455, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00025-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPrevalence of tuberculosisIncidence of tuberculosisM tuberculosis infectionIncidence rate ratiosTuberculosis infectionGeneral populationSystematic reviewSouth-East Asia RegionIncarcerated populationsPopulation-level incidenceMycobacterium tuberculosis infectionRate ratioTuberculosis Control ProgrammeLILACS electronic databasesWHO Eastern Mediterranean RegionWHO South-East Asia RegionWeb of KnowledgeCohort studyUS National InstitutesSubgroup analysisPooled estimatesHigh riskElectronic databasesPreventive interventionsTuberculosisTrends in Untreated Tuberculosis in Large Municipalities, Brazil, 2008–2017 - Volume 27, Number 3—March 2021 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC
Chitwood MH, Pelissari DM, da Silva G, Bartholomay P, Rocha MS, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Sanchez M, Cohen T, Castro MC, Menzies NA. Trends in Untreated Tuberculosis in Large Municipalities, Brazil, 2008–2017 - Volume 27, Number 3—March 2021 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2021, 27: 957-960. PMID: 33622464, PMCID: PMC7920690, DOI: 10.3201/eid2703.204094.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchBayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil
Chitwood MH, Pelissari DM, da Silva G, Bartholomay P, Rocha MS, Sanchez M, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Glaziou P, Cohen T, Castro MC, Menzies NA. Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil. Epidemics 2021, 35: 100443. PMID: 33676092, PMCID: PMC8252152, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100443.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceFraction of casesUntreated active diseaseIncident TB casesTB control programsLocal disease burdenIncident TBActive diseaseTB burdenTB casesTB outcomesTB notificationsDisease burdenBayesian evidence synthesisCase detectionIncidenceEvidence synthesisAverage annual increaseControl programsBurdenAnnual rateAnnual increaseFraction of individualsAverage annual rateSources of biasProtective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns
Havumaki J, Cohen T, Zhai C, Miller JC, Guikema SD, Eisenberg MC, Zelner J. Protective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns. PLOS Computational Biology 2021, 17: e1008713. PMID: 33556077, PMCID: PMC7895355, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008713.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis burdenCommunity transmissionGlobal tuberculosis control targetsSustained community transmissionHigh-incidence settingsHigh disease burdenTuberculosis contact tracingLow tuberculosis burdenHousehold contactsHousehold transmissionDisease burdenVaried incidenceContact patternsIncidence levelsProtective impactEpidemiological settingsInfected individualsNew casesProtective benefitsContact tracingCommunity contactsSuch interventionsInterventionBurdenProactive case
2020
Evaluation of 6-Month Versus Continuous Isoniazid Preventive Therapy for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Adults Living With HIV/AIDS in Malawi.
Hsieh YL, Jahn A, Menzies NA, Yaesoubi R, Salomon JA, Girma B, Gunde L, Eaton JW, Auld A, Odo M, Kiyiika CN, Kalua T, Chiwandira B, Mpunga JU, Mbendra K, Corbett L, Hosseinipour MC, Cohen T, Kunkel A. Evaluation of 6-Month Versus Continuous Isoniazid Preventive Therapy for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Adults Living With HIV/AIDS in Malawi. JAIDS Journal Of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 2020, 85: 643-650. PMID: 33177475, PMCID: PMC8564780, DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002497.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIsoniazid preventive therapyIPT programIPT strategyPreventive therapyContinuous isoniazid preventive therapyMore TB casesHIV-positive adultsCases of tuberculosisAnticipated health effectsComparable health benefitsHIV/AIDSCause deathAntiretroviral therapyTB casesTB controlTB incidenceDrug costsMalawi MinistryMean reductionTuberculosisMycobacterium tuberculosisTherapyAnticipated health impactsHealth effectsHealth benefitsImpact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States
Menzies NA, Bellerose M, Testa C, Swartwood N, Malyuta Y, Cohen T, Marks SM, Hill AN, Date AA, Maloney SA, Bowden SE, Grills AW, Salomon JA. Impact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2020, 202: 1567-1575. PMID: 32645277, PMCID: PMC7706168, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.202003-0526oc.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsGlobal TB controlTB incidence trendsEnd TB StrategyTB controlTB casesIncidence trendsEconomic burdenWorld Health Organization's End TB StrategyTB incidence rateGlobal tuberculosis controlHigh-burden countriesTotal economic burdenMajor health benefitsBase case scenarioBirth countryTB incidenceTB epidemiologyTuberculosis controlTB StrategyIncidence rateHealthcare costsIncidence reductionInfection riskTuberculosisSubstantial healthHigh-resolution estimates of tuberculosis incidence among non-U.S.-born persons residing in the United States, 2000–2016
Hill AN, Cohen T, Salomon JA, Menzies NA. High-resolution estimates of tuberculosis incidence among non-U.S.-born persons residing in the United States, 2000–2016. Epidemics 2020, 33: 100419. PMID: 33242759, PMCID: PMC7808561, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100419.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence risk ratioTuberculosis incidence rateIncidence rateTuberculosis riskTuberculosis casesNational Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemTuberculosis prevention effortsNew tuberculosis casesLow incidence rateTuberculosis Surveillance SystemBirth countryTuberculosis incidenceRisk ratioTuberculosis trendsHigh-income countriesYounger agePrevention effortsEffective targetingCohortEntry yearCommunity surveySurveillance systemRegression modelsAgeUnited StatesTime Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States
Menzies NA, Swartwood N, Testa C, Malyuta Y, Hill AN, Marks SM, Cohen T, Salomon JA. Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States. Epidemiology 2020, 32: 70-78. PMID: 33009253, PMCID: PMC7707158, DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001271.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLatent TB infectionMycobacterium tuberculosis infectionTB infectionTuberculosis infectionTB natural historyRisk of tuberculosisMost TB casesRate of progressionYounger age groupsLower future riskTransmission dynamic modelTB casesTB riskPrevalent infectionProgression riskLifetime riskRisk factorsIncidence trendsClinical diseaseCumulative riskGeneral populationAverage ageNew infectionsUS populationAge groupsChildren as sentinels of tuberculosis transmission: disease mapping of programmatic data
Gunasekera KS, Zelner J, Becerra MC, Contreras C, Franke MF, Lecca L, Murray MB, Warren JL, Cohen T. Children as sentinels of tuberculosis transmission: disease mapping of programmatic data. BMC Medicine 2020, 18: 234. PMID: 32873309, PMCID: PMC7466499, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01702-x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMaleProspective StudiesTuberculosisConceptsNational Tuberculosis ProgrammeActive case-finding interventionsCase-finding interventionsTuberculosis transmissionNotification dataTuberculosis ProgrammeTuberculosis incidenceChild casesChildhood tuberculosis casesRecent transmission eventsProportion of casesCase notification dataMolecular epidemiological methodsMolecular epidemiologic methodsEndemic infectious diseasesTuberculosis casesProspective studyAdult casesDisease progressionNotification registerProgrammatic dataDistricts of LimaEpidemiological methodsInfectious diseasesTransmission hotspotsCost-effectiveness of post-treatment follow-up examinations and secondary prevention of tuberculosis in a high-incidence setting: a model-based analysis
Marx FM, Cohen T, Menzies NA, Salomon JA, Theron G, Yaesoubi R. Cost-effectiveness of post-treatment follow-up examinations and secondary prevention of tuberculosis in a high-incidence setting: a model-based analysis. The Lancet Global Health 2020, 8: e1223-e1233. PMID: 32827484, PMCID: PMC7549318, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30227-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIsoniazid preventive therapySecondary preventive therapyHigh-incidence settingsPost-treatment followPreventive therapyTuberculosis controlTuberculosis incidenceTreatment completionTuberculosis case findingOverall disease burdenHigh tuberculosis incidenceTuberculosis-endemic settingHigh-incidence communityFirst yearHealth system costsRecurrent tuberculosisSecondary preventionAnnual followTuberculosis treatmentDisease burdenHigh riskCase findingSingle followSuburban Cape TownPreventive interventionsThe risk of tuberculosis in children after close exposure: a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis
Martinez L, Cords O, Horsburgh C, Andrews J, Consortium P, Acuna-Villaorduna C, Ahuja S, Altet N, Augusto O, Baliashvili D, Basu S, Becerra M, Bonnet M, Boom W, Borgdorff M, Boulahbal F, Carvalho A, Cayla J, Chakhaia T, Chan P, Cohen T, Croda J, Datta S, del Corral H, Denholm J, Dietze R, Dobler C, Donkor S, Egere U, Ellner J, Espinal M, Evans C, Fang C, Fielding K, Fox G, García L, García-Basteiro A, Geis S, Graham S, Grandjean L, Hannoun D, Hatherill M, Hauri A, Hesseling A, Hill P, Huang L, Huerga H, Hussain R, Jarlsberg L, Jones-López E, Kato S, Kato-Maeda M, Kampmann B, Kirchner H, Kritski A, Lange C, Lee C, Lee L, Lee M, Lemos A, Lienhardt C, Ling D, Liu Q, Lo N, Long R, Lopez-Varela E, Lu P, Magee M, Malone L, Mandalakas A, Martinson N, Mazahir R, Murray M, Netto E, Otero L, Parsonnet J, Reingold A, Schaaf H, Seddon J, Sharma S, Singh J, Singh S, Sloot R, Sotgiu G, Stein C, Iqbal N, Triasih R, Trieu L, van der Loeff M, Van der Stuyft P, van Schalkwyk C, Vashishtha R, Verhagen L, Villalba J, Wang J, Whalen C, Yoshiyama T, Zar H, Zellweger J, Zhu L. The risk of tuberculosis in children after close exposure: a systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis. The Lancet 2020, 395: 973-984. PMID: 32199484, PMCID: PMC7289654, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30166-5.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsYears of agePreventive therapyIncident tuberculosisTuberculosis infectionHazard ratioTuberculosis casesMixed-effects Poisson regression modelsSystematic reviewFinal analysisClose exposureIncident tuberculosis casesRisk of tuberculosisDevelopment of tuberculosisEMBASE electronic databasesIndividual participant dataPositive resultsPoisson regression modelsWeb of ScienceMixed-effects logistic modelBCG vaccinationCohort studyBaseline visitPrevalent tuberculosisContact investigationProspective study