2018
Smoking and Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States From 2015 to 2065: A Comparative Modeling Approach.
Jeon J, Holford TR, Levy DT, Feuer EJ, Cao P, Tam J, Clarke L, Clarke J, Kong CY, Meza R. Smoking and Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States From 2015 to 2065: A Comparative Modeling Approach. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2018, 169: 684-693. PMID: 30304504, PMCID: PMC6242740, DOI: 10.7326/m18-1250.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer mortalityTobacco control effortsCancer mortalityLung cancer ratesLung cancerCancer ratesLung cancer burdenLung cancer deathsLung cancer screeningSmoking-related diseasesU.S. populationNational Cancer InstituteLonger life expectancyCancer burdenSmoking patternsCancer deathCessation effortsCancer screeningTobacco useCancer InstituteSmokingAdditional preventionNatural historyMortalityCancerA spatiotemporal back‐calculation approach to estimate cancer incidence measures
Nautiyal N, Holford TR. A spatiotemporal back‐calculation approach to estimate cancer incidence measures. Statistics In Medicine 2018, 37: 4472-4489. PMID: 30155939, DOI: 10.1002/sim.7934.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2015
Age‐Period‐Cohort approaches to back‐calculation of cancer incidence rate
Oh C, Holford TR. Age‐Period‐Cohort approaches to back‐calculation of cancer incidence rate. Statistics In Medicine 2015, 34: 1953-1964. PMID: 25715831, PMCID: PMC4980760, DOI: 10.1002/sim.6464.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCancer incidence ratesEstimates of incidenceHealth care planningCancer deathLung cancerCancer prevalenceCancer incidenceIncidence rateHealthy subjectsCare planningSurvival informationMortality statisticsCancerIncidence casesIncidenceAge periodDeathSubjectsCompartment modelCohortMortalityPrevalence
2012
Chapter 4: Development of the Counterfactual Smoking Histories Used to Assess the Effects of Tobacco Control
Holford TR, Clark L. Chapter 4: Development of the Counterfactual Smoking Histories Used to Assess the Effects of Tobacco Control. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s39-s50. PMID: 22882891, PMCID: PMC3490210, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01759.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTobacco controlNational Health Interview SurveyLung cancer mortalityNumber of cigarettesLung cancer modelHealth Interview SurveySurveillance Modeling NetworkSurgeon General's ReportSmoking historyCessation ratesCigarette smokingCancer mortalityCancer modelCancer interventionInterview SurveySmokingPublic healthCigarettesReportControl programsGeneral's ReportControlMortalityWomenChapter 14: Comparing the Adequacy of Carcinogenesis Models in Estimating U.S. Population Rates for Lung Cancer Mortality
Holford TR, Levy DT. Chapter 14: Comparing the Adequacy of Carcinogenesis Models in Estimating U.S. Population Rates for Lung Cancer Mortality. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s179-s189. PMID: 22882888, PMCID: PMC3478769, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01734.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer mortalityCancer mortalityCarcinogenesis modelLung cancer mortality ratesU.S. population ratesEffect of smokingCancer Prevention StudyCancer mortality ratesPopulation ratesTwo-stage clonal expansion modelEffect of ageSmoking trendsLung cancerPrevention StudyEstimates of riskMortality rateClonal expansionClonal expansion modelCohort modelSmokingIndividual cohortsCohortMortalityU.S. malesTemporal trendsChapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model
Holford TR, Ebisu K, McKay L, Oh C, Zheng T. Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s151-s165. PMID: 22882886, PMCID: PMC3662537, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01754.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer deathsCarcinogenesis modelCancer deathLung cancer incidenceLung cancer modelTwo-stage clonal expansion modelCigarette smokingCancer incidenceCancer modelTobacco controlClonal expansion modelPopulation ratesCohort modelSmokingDeathHarmful effectsPopulation dataTemporal trendsMortalityObserved numberIncidenceControlImpact of Reduced Tobacco Smoking on Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States During 1975–2000
Moolgavkar SH, Holford TR, Levy DT, Kong CY, Foy M, Clarke L, Jeon J, Hazelton WD, Meza R, Schultz F, McCarthy W, Boer R, Gorlova O, Gazelle GS, Kimmel M, McMahon PM, de Koning HJ, Feuer EJ. Impact of Reduced Tobacco Smoking on Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States During 1975–2000. Journal Of The National Cancer Institute 2012, 104: 541-548. PMID: 22423009, PMCID: PMC3317881, DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djs136.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer deathsLung cancer mortalityCancer deathSmoking behaviorCancer mortalityMajor public health problemTobacco controlPublic health problemTobacco control strategiesNumber of deathsSmoking historyTobacco smokingLung cancerGroups of investigatorsBirth cohortHealth problemsFirst reportSmokingMortalityDeathUnited StatesWomenMenCohortCancer
1998
Re: Cigarette Smoking and Changes in the Histopathology of Lung Cancer
Holford T, Tongzhang Z, T. S. Re: Cigarette Smoking and Changes in the Histopathology of Lung Cancer. Journal Of The National Cancer Institute 1998, 90: 783-783. PMID: 9605651, DOI: 10.1093/jnci/90.10.783.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
1996
A MODEL FOR THE EFFECT OF CIGARETTE SMOKING ON LUNG CANCER INCIDENCE IN CONNECTICUT
HOLFORD T, ZHANG Z, ZHENG T, MCKAY L. A MODEL FOR THE EFFECT OF CIGARETTE SMOKING ON LUNG CANCER INCIDENCE IN CONNECTICUT. Statistics In Medicine 1996, 15: 565-580. PMID: 8731001, DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19960330)15:6<565::aid-sim185>3.0.co;2-t.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer incidenceCancer incidenceIncidence rateLung cancer incidence ratesLung cancer incidence trendsEffect of smokingCancer incidence ratesCancer incidence trendsCohort studyCurrent smokersLevel of exposureMale smokersSmoking historySmoking subgroupsSmoking informationCigarette smokingMean durationSmoking prevalenceIncidence trendsSmokersSmokingPrevalenceCohort effectsAge distributionIncidence
1994
Time trend and the age‐period‐cohort effect on the incidence of histologic types of lung cancer in connecticut, 1960‐1989
Zheng T, Holford T, Boyle P, Chen Y, Ward B, Flannery J, Mayne S. Time trend and the age‐period‐cohort effect on the incidence of histologic types of lung cancer in connecticut, 1960‐1989. Cancer 1994, 74: 1556-1567. PMID: 8062189, DOI: 10.1002/1097-0142(19940901)74:5<1556::aid-cncr2820740511>3.0.co;2-0.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdenocarcinomaAdenocarcinoma, Bronchiolo-AlveolarAdultAge FactorsAgedAged, 80 and overCarcinomaCarcinoma, Small CellCarcinoma, Squamous CellCohort EffectCohort StudiesConnecticutFemaleHumansIncidenceLung NeoplasmsMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalRegistriesSex FactorsSmokingTime FactorsConceptsAge-adjusted incidence ratesMajor histologic typesOverall age-adjusted incidence rateAge-specific incidence ratesHistologic typeLung cancer incidenceLung cancerIncidence rateBirth cohortRecent birth cohortsIncidence patternsObserved time trendsCell carcinomaCancer incidenceTime trendsConnecticut Tumor RegistryIncidence of adenocarcinomaSmall cell carcinomaSquamous cell carcinomaLung cancer casesRecent epidemiologic studiesDifferent histologic typesDifferent incidence patternsObserved incidence patternsTumor RegistryEstimating age, period and cohort effects using the multistage model for cancer
Holford T, Zhang Z, McKay L. Estimating age, period and cohort effects using the multistage model for cancer. Statistics In Medicine 1994, 13: 23-41. PMID: 9061838, DOI: 10.1002/sim.4780130105.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
1992
Analysing the temporal effects of age, period and cohort
Holford T. Analysing the temporal effects of age, period and cohort. Statistical Methods In Medical Research 1992, 1: 317-337. PMID: 1341663, DOI: 10.1177/096228029200100306.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
1991
Understanding the Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Incidence and Mortality Rates
Holford T. Understanding the Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Incidence and Mortality Rates. Annual Review Of Public Health 1991, 12: 425-457. PMID: 2049144, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.pu.12.050191.002233.Peer-Reviewed Original Research