2021
Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil
Chitwood MH, Pelissari DM, da Silva G, Bartholomay P, Rocha MS, Sanchez M, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Glaziou P, Cohen T, Castro MC, Menzies NA. Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil. Epidemics 2021, 35: 100443. PMID: 33676092, PMCID: PMC8252152, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100443.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceFraction of casesUntreated active diseaseIncident TB casesTB control programsLocal disease burdenIncident TBActive diseaseTB burdenTB casesTB outcomesTB notificationsDisease burdenBayesian evidence synthesisCase detectionIncidenceEvidence synthesisAverage annual increaseControl programsBurdenAnnual rateAnnual increaseFraction of individualsAverage annual rateSources of bias
2019
Transmissibility and potential for disease progression of drug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis: prospective cohort study
Becerra MC, Huang CC, Lecca L, Bayona J, Contreras C, Calderon R, Yataco R, Galea J, Zhang Z, Atwood S, Cohen T, Mitnick CD, Farmer P, Murray M. Transmissibility and potential for disease progression of drug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis: prospective cohort study. The BMJ 2019, 367: l5894. PMID: 31649017, PMCID: PMC6812583, DOI: 10.1136/bmj.l5894.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdolescentAdultAgedAntitubercular AgentsChildChild, PreschoolContact TracingDisease ProgressionFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornIsoniazidKaplan-Meier EstimateMaleMicrobial Sensitivity TestsMiddle AgedMycobacterium tuberculosisPeruProspective StudiesRifampinSputumTuberculin TestTuberculosis, Multidrug-ResistantTuberculosis, PulmonaryYoung AdultConceptsDrug-sensitive tuberculosisMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisHousehold contactsProspective cohort studySensitive tuberculosisTuberculosis infectionResistant tuberculosisCohort studyTuberculosis diseaseHigh riskDrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosisIncident tuberculosis diseasePhenotypic drug resistanceDistrict Health CenterResistant Mycobacterium tuberculosisDrug-susceptible strainsDrug resistance profilesActive diseasePulmonary tuberculosisDisease progressionGuideline producersHealth centersIndex patientsEffective treatmentPatients
2018
Progression from latent infection to active disease in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions
Menzies NA, Wolf E, Connors D, Bellerose M, Sbarra AN, Cohen T, Hill AN, Yaesoubi R, Galer K, White PJ, Abubakar I, Salomon JA. Progression from latent infection to active disease in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2018, 18: e228-e238. PMID: 29653698, PMCID: PMC6070419, DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30134-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis transmission modelActive diseaseCumulative incidenceRisk factorsSystematic reviewNatural historyFeatures of epidemiologyDisease natural historyIndividual risk factorsTuberculosis natural historyEarliest available dateWeb of ScienceAnnual incidenceCochrane LibraryTuberculosis incidenceInclusion criteriaFuture tuberculosisLatent infectionInitial infectionIncidenceSubstantial proportionPopulation groupsAvailable dateInfectionDisease
2015
How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences
Kunkel A, Colijn C, Lipsitch M, Cohen T. How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences 2015, 370: 20140306. PMID: 25918446, PMCID: PMC4424438, DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2014.0306.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPreventative therapyDrug resistanceDrug-sensitive pathogensProphylactic antimicrobial therapyLong-term prevalenceSmall pilot studyActive diseaseOverall prevalenceAntimicrobial therapyPrevalencePilot studyTherapyPopulation-level changesPotential population-level effectsDirect effectLevel of coveragePopulation-level effectsHIVTuberculosisMalariaDiseaseCare
2010
The Impact of Realistic Age Structure in Simple Models of Tuberculosis Transmission
Brooks-Pollock E, Cohen T, Murray M. The Impact of Realistic Age Structure in Simple Models of Tuberculosis Transmission. PLOS ONE 2010, 5: e8479. PMID: 20062531, PMCID: PMC2797602, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008479.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSimple modelReproductive ratioRealistic age structureSteady-state dynamicsBasic reproductive ratioMathematical descriptionMathematical modelParameter estimationRepresentative of modelsAnalytic argumentsInterpretation of modelsTuberculosis transmissionModelling assumptionsTB modelControl interventionsTB natural historyChronic infectious diseaseDisease dynamicsPublic health interventionsRealistic distributionExponential lifetimesAsymptomatic latent infectionIndividual-based modelPrevalence of infectionActive disease