2023
Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis
Menzies N, Allwood B, Dean A, Dodd P, Houben R, James L, Knight G, Meghji J, Nguyen L, Rachow A, Schumacher S, Mirzayev F, Cohen T. Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis. Nature Communications 2023, 14: 6182. PMID: 37794037, PMCID: PMC10550952, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41937-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDisability-adjusted life yearsRifampicin-resistant tuberculosisRR-TBGlobal burdenSubstantial short-term morbidityRifampicin-susceptible tuberculosisShort-term morbidityOverall disease burdenLong-term health impactsPost-treatment careTB survivorsDisease burdenTreatment outcomesTuberculosis survivorsCase detectionLife yearsRifampicin resistanceTuberculosisHealth impactsBurdenHealth expenditureDiseaseSurvivorsMathematical modeling analysisFormer Soviet Union countriesTransmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics
Dodd P, Shaweno D, Ku C, Glaziou P, Pretorius C, Hayes R, MacPherson P, Cohen T, Ayles H. Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics. Nature Communications 2023, 14: 1639. PMID: 36964130, PMCID: PMC10037365, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37314-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh HIV prevalence settingsEstimation of burdenHIV prevalence settingsGeneralized HIV epidemicsTB transmission modelAntiretroviral therapyTB infectionTB incidenceHIV prevalenceTB prevalencePrevalence settingsTB epidemicHIV epidemicHigh burdenBurden estimatesNotification dataAnnual riskSingle pathogenIntervention impactTherapy effectsTuberculosisPrevalenceEpidemicBurdenAfrican countries
2022
A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities
Chitwood M, Alves L, Bartholomay P, Couto R, Sanchez M, Castro M, Cohen T, Menzies N. A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities. PLOS Global Public Health 2022, 2: e0000725. PMID: 36962578, PMCID: PMC10021638, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000725.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPerson/yearTB incidenceCase notificationBurden estimatesIncident TB casesTB case notificationTB control strategiesDisease burden estimatesIncident TBUntreated TBTB casesTuberculosis burdenDisease burdenIncidence rateCase detectionRoutine dataDeath recordsMortality dataIncidenceSubnational estimatesDisease control resourcesBurdenHigh needTBFraction of individuals
2021
The impact of COVID-19 on TB: a review of the data
McQuaid C, Vassall A, Cohen T, Fiekert K, COVID/TB Modelling Working Group *, White R. The impact of COVID-19 on TB: a review of the data. The International Journal Of Tuberculosis And Lung Disease 2021, 25: 436-446. PMID: 34049605, PMCID: PMC8171247, DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.21.0148.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchBayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil
Chitwood MH, Pelissari DM, da Silva G, Bartholomay P, Rocha MS, Sanchez M, Arakaki-Sanchez D, Glaziou P, Cohen T, Castro MC, Menzies NA. Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate subnational TB incidence: An application in Brazil. Epidemics 2021, 35: 100443. PMID: 33676092, PMCID: PMC8252152, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100443.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB incidenceFraction of casesUntreated active diseaseIncident TB casesTB control programsLocal disease burdenIncident TBActive diseaseTB burdenTB casesTB outcomesTB notificationsDisease burdenBayesian evidence synthesisCase detectionIncidenceEvidence synthesisAverage annual increaseControl programsBurdenAnnual rateAnnual increaseFraction of individualsAverage annual rateSources of biasProtective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns
Havumaki J, Cohen T, Zhai C, Miller JC, Guikema SD, Eisenberg MC, Zelner J. Protective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns. PLOS Computational Biology 2021, 17: e1008713. PMID: 33556077, PMCID: PMC7895355, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008713.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis burdenCommunity transmissionGlobal tuberculosis control targetsSustained community transmissionHigh-incidence settingsHigh disease burdenTuberculosis contact tracingLow tuberculosis burdenHousehold contactsHousehold transmissionDisease burdenVaried incidenceContact patternsIncidence levelsProtective impactEpidemiological settingsInfected individualsNew casesProtective benefitsContact tracingCommunity contactsSuch interventionsInterventionBurdenProactive case
2018
The impact of migration on tuberculosis in the United States
Menzies NA, Hill AN, Cohen T, Salomon JA. The impact of migration on tuberculosis in the United States. The International Journal Of Tuberculosis And Lung Disease 2018, 22: 1392-1403. PMID: 30606311, PMCID: PMC6353558, DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.17.0185.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB casesTB burdenHigher tuberculosis ratesNew TB casesLow-incidence settingsEntry yearActive TBTB epidemiologyTB riskIncidence estimatesTuberculosis ratesLifetime casesUnited StatesRiskPopulation residentGreater exposureBurdenNative-born populationPopulationCountry of originTBYearsTuberculosisCasesInfection
2017
Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study
Verguet S, Riumallo-Herl C, Gomez GB, Menzies NA, Houben RMGJ, Sumner T, Lalli M, White RG, Salomon JA, Cohen T, Foster N, Chatterjee S, Sweeney S, Baena IG, Lönnroth K, Weil DE, Vassall A. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health 2017, 5: e1123-e1132. PMID: 29025634, PMCID: PMC5640802, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(17)30341-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisEnd TB StrategyTuberculosis servicesCatastrophic costsTB StrategyDrug-sensitive tuberculosisCatastrophic financial burdenAnnual household incomeTuberculosis careTuberculosis controlEconomic burdenTuberculosisIntervention effectsMelinda Gates FoundationHousehold incomeIndirect costsFinancial burdenExpansion of accessPatientsTotal annual household incomeTreatmentCareGates FoundationBurdenIntervention scenarios
2016
High burden of prevalent tuberculosis among previously treated people in Southern Africa suggests potential for targeted control interventions
Marx FM, Floyd S, Ayles H, Godfrey-Faussett P, Beyers N, Cohen T. High burden of prevalent tuberculosis among previously treated people in Southern Africa suggests potential for targeted control interventions. European Respiratory Journal 2016, 48: 1227-1230. PMID: 27390274, PMCID: PMC5512114, DOI: 10.1183/13993003.00716-2016.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh-burden settingsHigh TB prevalenceRecurrent tuberculosisExogenous reinfectionPrevalent tuberculosisTB prevalenceSuccessful treatmentHigh burdenImportant underlying mechanismHigh riskHigh incidenceControl interventionsTargeted interventionsTuberculosisUnderlying mechanismOne-thirdInterventionBurdenCape TownIndividualsReinfectionPrevalenceIncidenceDiseaseSettingAssessing Local Risk of Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa Using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling
Heidebrecht CL, Podewils LJ, Pym A, Mthiyane T, Cohen T. Assessing Local Risk of Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa Using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling. PLOS ONE 2016, 11: e0153143. PMID: 27050561, PMCID: PMC4822784, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153143.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncident TB casesTB casesResistant TBDrug-resistant TB casesRifampicin-resistant tuberculosisMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisDrug susceptibility testingRIF-resistant TBLot Quality Assurance SamplingQuality assurance samplingResistant diseaseHigh burdenRIF resistanceKwaZulu-NatalSusceptibility testingHigh-risk areasTuberculosisRiskGreater proportionBurdenTBDiseaseGeographic heterogeneityCasesRifampicin
2015
Counting children with tuberculosis: why numbers matter
Seddon JA, Jenkins HE, Liu L, Cohen T, Black RE, Vos T, Becerra MC, Graham SM, Sismanidis C, Dodd PJ. Counting children with tuberculosis: why numbers matter. The International Journal Of Tuberculosis And Lung Disease 2015, 19: 9-16. PMID: 26564535, PMCID: PMC4708268, DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.15.0471.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchEvaluating the potential impact of enhancing HIV treatment and tuberculosis control programmes on the burden of tuberculosis
Chindelevitch L, Menzies NA, Pretorius C, Stover J, Salomon JA, Cohen T. Evaluating the potential impact of enhancing HIV treatment and tuberculosis control programmes on the burden of tuberculosis. Journal Of The Royal Society Interface 2015, 12: 20150146. PMID: 25878131, PMCID: PMC4424692, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0146.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsAntiretroviral therapyTB incidenceTB burdenBurden of tuberculosisTuberculosis Control ProgrammePotential epidemiological impactART eligibilityMortality benefitTB programsHIV treatmentTB prevalenceTuberculosis incidenceEpidemiological impactART useProgram improvementHIVTreatment effectivenessIncidenceMortalityGreater reductionBurdenTBSaharan AfricaControl programsEligibility
2014
On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: An examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data
Cohen T, Jenkins HE, Lu C, McLaughlin M, Floyd K, Zignol M. On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: An examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data. Drug Resistance Updates 2014, 17: 105-123. PMID: 25458783, PMCID: PMC4358299, DOI: 10.1016/j.drup.2014.10.001.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMDR-TBTB casesResistant tuberculosisAbsolute burdenSurveillance dataMDR-TB epidemicDrug-resistant TBMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisDrug-resistant tuberculosisNotified TB casesResistance surveillance dataSufficient surveillance dataWorld Health OrganizationBurden settingsTuberculosis controlUnadjusted analysesSignificant linear trendSurveillance indicatorsRobust surveillance systemHealth OrganizationTuberculosisBurdenSurveillance systemSettingLinear trendChanging Patterns of Spatial Clustering of Schistosomiasis in Southwest China between 1999–2001 and 2007–2008: Assessing Progress toward Eradication after the World Bank Loan Project
Hu Y, Xiong C, Zhang Z, Luo C, Cohen T, Gao J, Zhang L, Jiang Q. Changing Patterns of Spatial Clustering of Schistosomiasis in Southwest China between 1999–2001 and 2007–2008: Assessing Progress toward Eradication after the World Bank Loan Project. International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health 2014, 11: 701-712. PMID: 24394217, PMCID: PMC3924469, DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110100701.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2012
Assessing spatial heterogeneity of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in a high-burden country
Jenkins HE, Plesca V, Ciobanu A, Crudu V, Galusca I, Soltan V, Serbulenco A, Zignol M, Dadu A, Dara M, Cohen T. Assessing spatial heterogeneity of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in a high-burden country. European Respiratory Journal 2012, 42: 1291-1301. PMID: 23100496, PMCID: PMC3800490, DOI: 10.1183/09031936.00111812.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisMDR-TB riskMDR-TB risk factorsNational TB surveillance dataMDR-TB incidenceTB surveillance dataMDR-TB casesHigh-burden countriesMDR-TB burdenDistribution of casesTB casesTuberculosis casesRisk of resistanceRisk factorsGreater riskSubstantial geographical variationSurveillance dataAppropriate targetingTesting coverageRiskTuberculosisBurdenHigh percentageLocal mechanismsPatientsControversies and Unresolved Issues in Tuberculosis Prevention and Control: A Low-Burden-Country Perspective
Abubakar I, Stagg HR, Cohen T, Mangtani P, Rodrigues LC, Pimpin L, Watson JM, Squire SB, Zumla A. Controversies and Unresolved Issues in Tuberculosis Prevention and Control: A Low-Burden-Country Perspective. The Journal Of Infectious Diseases 2012, 205: s293-s300. PMID: 22448025, DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jir886.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh-risk groupTuberculosis preventionHigh-income countriesScreening of migrantsContacts of casesLow-burden countriesMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisRate of tuberculosisBurden of diseaseDuration of protectionMost high-income countriesConcentration of casesPreventive therapyBCG vaccineCurrent evidenceGeneral populationLow burdenSurveillance dataTuberculosisReach groupsHomeless personsPace of reductionPreventionBurdenGroup
2009
Extensively Drug‐Resistant Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS
Murray M, Cohen T. Extensively Drug‐Resistant Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS. 2009, 253-275. DOI: 10.1002/9783527627905.ch10.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2008
Are Survey-Based Estimates of the Burden of Drug Resistant TB Too Low? Insight from a Simulation Study
Cohen T, Colijn C, Finklea B, Wright A, Zignol M, Pym A, Murray M. Are Survey-Based Estimates of the Burden of Drug Resistant TB Too Low? Insight from a Simulation Study. PLOS ONE 2008, 3: e2363. PMID: 18523659, PMCID: PMC2408555, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0002363.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsResistant tuberculosisIncident casesTotal burdenDrug-resistant TBDrug-resistant tuberculosisSecond-line antibioticsDrug treatment regimensDrug sensitivity testingDrug-resistant strainsBurden of resistanceEmergence of tuberculosisResistant TBTreatment regimensPrevalent casesWorldwide burdenIntroduction of interventionsRoutine surveillanceSurveillance strategiesDrug resistanceTuberculosisLaboratory capacityMycobacterium tuberculosisSensitivity testingTuberculosis modelBurdenChallenges in Estimating the Total Burden of Drug-resistant Tuberculosis
Cohen T, Colijn C, Wright A, Zignol M, Pym A, Murray M. Challenges in Estimating the Total Burden of Drug-resistant Tuberculosis. American Journal Of Respiratory And Critical Care Medicine 2008, 177: 1302-1306. PMID: 18369201, PMCID: PMC2720088, DOI: 10.1164/rccm.200801-175pp.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDrug-resistant tuberculosisDrug resistance surveillanceHIV/TB coinfectionAnti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance SurveillanceResistance surveillanceSentinel site surveillanceBurden of tuberculosisMultidrug-resistant diseaseMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisTB control programsTB coinfectionTB casesHigh burdenMethodologic obstaclesSurveillance studyNew casesTotal burdenTuberculosisLaboratory capacityBurdenSurveillanceControl programsDiagnostic technologiesRecent recognitionTrue extent
2004
Modeling epidemics of multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis of heterogeneous fitness
Cohen T, Murray M. Modeling epidemics of multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis of heterogeneous fitness. Nature Medicine 2004, 10: 1117-1121. PMID: 15378056, PMCID: PMC2652755, DOI: 10.1038/nm1110.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDrug-sensitive strainsMDR strainsMultidrug resistanceMultidrug-resistant M. tuberculosisM. tuberculosisMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisTuberculosis control effortsEmergence of resistanceTB controlFuture burdenMDR diseaseMDRTB strainsEpidemiological measuresTuberculosisMDRSmall subpopulationMDRTBControl programsBurdenSingle locus mutationsSequential acquisitionDisease