Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Collaborators G, Vollset S, Ababneh H, Abate Y, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbastabar H, Al Magied A, ElHafeez S, Abdelkader A, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdi P, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abiodun O, Aboagye R, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Aboye G, Abreu L, Absalan A, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abukhadijah H, Addolorato G, Adekanmbi V, Adetunji C, Adetunji J, Adeyeoluwa T, Adha R, Adhikary R, Adnani Q, Adzigbli L, Afrashteh F, Afzal M, Afzal S, Agbozo F, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah B, Ahlstrom A, Ahmad A, Ahmad F, Ahmad M, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed S, Ahmed S, Akinosoglou K, Akkaif M, Akrami A, Akter E, Al Awaidy S, Al Hasan S, Al Mosa A, Al Ta'ani O, Al Zaabi O, Alahdab F, Alajlani M, Al-Ajlouni Y, Alalalmeh S, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alam Z, Al-amer R, Alanezi F, Alanzi T, Albakri A, Aldhaleei W, Aldridge R, Alemohammad S, Alemu Y, Al-Gheethi A, Al-Hanawi M, Ali A, Ali A, Ali I, Ali M, Ali R, Ali S, Ali V, Ali W, Al-Ibraheem A, Alicandro G, Alif M, Aljunid S, Alla F, Almazan J, Al-Mekhlafi H, Alqutaibi A, Alrawashdeh A, Alrousan S, Al-Sabah S, Alsabri M, Altaany Z, Al-Tammemi A, Al-Tawfiq J, Altirkawi K, Aluh D, Alvis-Guzman N, Al-Wardat M, Al-Worafi Y, Aly H, Alyahya M, Alzoubi K, Al-Zyoud W, Amani R, Ameyaw E, Amin T, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq M, Amu H, Amugsi D, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson D, Andrade P, Andrei C, Andrei T, Andrews E, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Antony C, Antriyandarti E, Anuoluwa B, Anvari S, Anyasodor A, Appiah F, Aquilano M, Arab J, Arabloo J, Arafa E, Arafat M, Aravkin A, Ardekani A, Areda D, Aregawi B, Aremu A, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armani K, Artamonov A, Arumugam A, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashbaugh C, Astell-Burt T, Athari S, Atorkey, Atout M, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Awad H, Awotidebe A, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos J, Azadnajafabad S, Azeez F, Azevedo R, Badar M, Baghdadi S, Bagheri M, Bagheri N, Bai R, Baker J, Bako A, Balakrishnan S, Balcha W, Baltatu O, Barchitta M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo S, Bärnighausen T, Barqawi H, Barteit S, Basiru A, Basso J, Bastan M, Basu S, Bauckneht M, Baune B, Bayati M, Bayileyegn N, Behnoush A, Behzadi P, Beiranvand M, Bello O, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bemanalizadeh M, Bensenor I, Benzian H, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Bernstein R, Bettencourt P, Beyene K, Beyene M, Bhagat D, Bhagavathula A, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bharadwaj R, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhattacharjee N, Bhatti G, Bhatti J, Bhatti M, Bhuiyan M, Bisignano C, Biswas B, Bjørge T, Bodolica V, Bodunrin A, Hashemi M, Basara B, Borhany H, Bosoka S, Carvajal A, Bouaoud S, Boufous S, Boxe C, Boyko E, Brady O, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Brazo-Sayavera J, Brenner H, Brown C, Browne A, Brugha T, Bryazka D, Bulamu N, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns R, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt Z, dos Santos F, Barsbay M, Calina D, Campos L, Cao S, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carugno A, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia J, Castelpietra G, Cattaruzza M, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenko E, Cerin E, Chadban S, Chadwick J, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty S, Chalek J, Chan J, Chandika R, Chandy S, Charan J, Chaudhary A, Chaurasia A, Chen A, Chen H, Chen M, Chen S, Cherbuin N, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching P, Chirinos-Caceres J, Chitheer A, Cho D, Cho W, Choi D, Chong B, Chong C, Chopra H, Chu D, Chung E, Chutiyami M, Clayton J, Cogen R, Cohen A, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Connolly J, Cooper E, Cortese S, Cruz-Martins N, da Silva A, Dadras O, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalton B, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Das J, Das S, Das S, Dash N, Davletov K, De la Hoz F, De Leo D, Debopadhaya S, Delgado-Enciso I, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Desai H, Devanbu V, Dewan S, Dhama K, Dhane A, Dhingra S, da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz L, Diaz M, Dima A, Ding D, Phuong T, do Prado C, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Doegah P, Dohare S, Dong W, D'Oria M, Doshi R, Dowou R, Dsouza H, Dsouza V, Dube J, Dumith S, Duncan B, Duraes A, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye O, Dushpanova A, Dutta S, Dzianach P, Dziedzic A, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Kalan M, Edinur H, Efendi F, Eikemo T, Eini E, Ekundayo T, Arab R, Sayed I, Elamin O, Elemam N, ElGohary G, Elhadi M, Elmeligy O, Elmoselhi A, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Eltahir M, Emeto T, Eshrati B, Eslami M, Esmaeili Z, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe A, Fagbule O, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha C, Faris M, Faro A, Fasihi K, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk N, Fazylov T, Feigin V, Fekadu G, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad S, Ferrara P, Ferreira N, Firew B, Fischer F, Fitriana I, Flavel J, Flor L, Folayan M, Foley K, Fonzo M, Force L, Foschi M, Freitas A, Fridayani N, Fukutaki K, Furtado J, Fux B, Gaal P, Gadanya M, Gallus S, Ganesan B, Ganiyani M, Gautam R, Gebi T, Gebregergis M, Gebrehiwot M, Getacher L, Getahun G, Gething P, Ghadimi D, Ghadirian F, Ghafarian S, Ghailan K, Ghasemi M, Dabaghi G, Ghazy R, Ghoba S, Gholami E, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh N, Ghorbani M, Vajargah P, Ghotbi E, Gil A, Gill T, Girmay A, Glasbey J, Glushkova E, Gnedovskaya E, Göbölös L, Goldust M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gopalani S, Goulart A, Gouravani, Goyal A, Grivna M, Grosso G, Guarducci G, Gubari M, Guicciardi S, Guimarães R, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane D, Guo C, Gupta A, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta V, Haakenstad A, Hadi N, Haep N, Hafiz A, Haghmorad D, Haile D, Ali A, Ali A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub E, Haller S, Halwani R, Abdullah K, Hamdy N, Hamoudi R, Hanifi N, Hankey G, Haq Z, Haque R, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro J, Hasaballah A, Hasan S, Hasanian M, Hasnain S, Hassan A, Haubold J, Hay S, Hebert J, Hegazi O, Heidari M, Hemmati M, Henson C, Herrera-Serna B, Herteliu C, Heydari M, Hezam K, Hidayana I, Hiraike Y, Hoan N, Holla R, Hoogar P, Horita N, Hossain M, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hu C, Huang J, Hultström M, Hundie T, Hunt A, Hushmandi K, Hussain J, Hussain M, Hussein N, Huynh H, Hwang B, Ibitoye S, Iftikhar P, Ikiroma A, Ikwegbue P, Ilic I, Ilic M, Immurana M, Isa M, Islam R, Islam M, Ismail F, Ismail N, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iyamu I, Jacob L, Jacobsen K, Jafarinia M, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jain N, Jairoun A, Mani R, Jamil S, Jamora R, Jatau A, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayaram S, Jee S, Jeganathan J, Jiang H, Jokar M, Jonas J, Joseph N, Joshua C, Jürisson M, Vaishali K, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kalankesh L, Kalra S, Kamath A, Kamath R, Kamireddy A, Kanaan M, Kanchan T, Kanmiki E, Kanmodi K, Kansal S, Karim A, Karkhah S, Kashoo F, Kasraei H, Kassel M, Katikireddi S, Kauppila J, Kaur H, Kayode G, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kebede F, Kendal E, Kesse-Guyot E, Khademvatan S, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid A, Khalid N, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan F, Khan M, Khan M, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh M, Khatib M, Kashani H, Kheirallah K, Khokhar M, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Khosla A, Khosravi M, Khosrowjerdi M, Khubchandani J, Kifle Z, Kim G, Kim J, Kim M, Kim Y, Kimokoti R, Kisa A, Kisa S, Knibbs L, Knudsen A, Kochhar S, Kolahi A, Kompani F, Koren G, Korzh O, Krishan K, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Bicer B, Kuddus A, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kujan O, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar G, Kumar H, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kumar V, Kundu A, Kusuma D, Kyei-Arthur F, Kytö V, Kyu H, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan M, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lai D, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lan Q, Lan T, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Lansingh V, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson A, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lawlor H, Le H, Le L, Le N, Le T, Le T, Leasher J, Lee D, Lee M, Lee P, Lee S, Lee S, Lee S, Lee Y, Leigh J, Leong E, Li M, Libra M, Ligade V, Lim L, Lim S, Limenh L, Lindholm D, Lindstedt P, Listl S, Liu G, Liu S, Liu S, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, López-Bueno R, López-Gil J, Loreche A, Lotufo P, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Luo L, Lusk J, Lv L, Amin H, Feei Z, Maass K, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madureira-Carvalho Á, Razek H, Maghazachi A, Prasad D, Mahalleh M, Mahasha P, Mahmoud M, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudvand G, Makama M, Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik A, Malta D, Manla Y, Mansour A, Mansouri M, Mansouri P, Mansouri V, Mansourian M, Mansournia M, Marasini B, Marateb H, Maravilla J, Mardi P, Marjani A, Moghadam H, Arnedo C, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martins-Melo F, Martorell M, Marx W, Marzo R, Masoudi S, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathioudakis A, Mathur M, Mathur N, Mathur N, Matozinhos F, Mattumpuram J, Maude R, Maugeri A, Mayeli M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McGrath J, McKee M, McKowen A, McPhail M, McPhail S, Mehmood A, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehravar S, Meto T, Melese E, Mendez-Lopez M, Mendoza W, Menezes R, Mensah G, Mensah L, Mentis A, Meo A, Meretoja A, Meretoja T, Mersha A, Mestrovic T, Mettananda K, Mettananda S, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Miazgowski T, Michalek I, de Sá A, Miller T, Minh L, Mirahmadi A, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov E, Mirzaei R, Mitchell P, Mittal C, Moberg M, Fard A, Mohajelin S, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed A, Mohamed J, Mohamed M, Mohamed N, Mohammad A, Mohammadi S, Mohammed H, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mokdad A, Molokhia M, Momani S, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni M, Montazeri F, Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira R, Morovatdar N, Morrison S, Mosapour A, Mosser J, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mousavi P, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Mueller U, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Musallam K, Musina A, Mustafa G, Myung W, Nafei A, Nagarajan A, Naghavi P, Naik G, Naik G, Nainu F, Najdaghi S, Ansari N, Nangia V, Swamy S, Nargus S, Davani D, Nascimento B, Nascimento G, Naser A, Nashwan A, Natto Z, Nauman J, Navaratna S, Naveed M, Nawsherwan, Nayak B, Nayak V, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi R, Nejadghaderi S, Nejjari C, Nematollahi S, Netsere H, Ng M, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri J, Nguyen A, Nguyen D, Nguyen D, Nguyen H, Nguyen N, Nguyen N, Nguyen P, Nguyen Q, Nguyen V, Minh D, Niazi R, Nigatu Y, Niknam M, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor A, Nikravangolsefid N, Noman E, Nomura S, Noor S, Noroozi N, Nouri M, Nozari M, Nri-Ezedi C, Ntaios G, Nunemo M, Nurrika D, Nutor J, Nzoputam 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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet 2024, 403: 2204-2256. PMID: 38762325, PMCID: PMC11121021, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDisability-adjusted life yearsAge-standardised DALY ratesCause-specific mortalityDrivers of healthRisk factor exposureSets of risk factorsIschaemic heart diseaseGlobal burdenDisease burdenLife expectancySub-Saharan AfricaDALY ratesRisk factorsProportion of disability-adjusted life yearsEstimates of cause-specific mortalityGlobal Burden of Disease StudyBurden of Disease StudyDisability-adjusted life year burdenGlobal Burden of DiseaseMixed-effects modelsHigh-income super-regionImprove health outcomesBurden of disability-adjusted life yearsNon-communicable diseasesHealthy life expectancy
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