2024
Cost-effectiveness and health impact of screening and treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among formerly incarcerated individuals in Brazil: a Markov modelling study
van Lieshout Titan A, Klaassen F, Pelissari D, de Barros Silva J, Alves K, Alves L, Sanchez M, Bartholomay P, Johansen F, Croda J, Andrews J, Castro M, Cohen T, Vuik C, Menzies N. Cost-effectiveness and health impact of screening and treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among formerly incarcerated individuals in Brazil: a Markov modelling study. The Lancet Global Health 2024, 12: e1446-e1455. PMID: 39151980, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(24)00221-3.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDisability-adjusted life yearsTuberculosis preventive treatmentTuberculosis deathsHealth impactsImpact of screeningIntervention cost-effectivenessInfection screeningCost-effectiveNational Institutes of HealthHealth outcomesHealth gainsInstitutes of HealthQuantify health effectsTuberculosis casesCost-effectiveness ratioTreatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infectionPotential health impactsLife yearsGreater health benefitsTuberculosis preventionTarget populationMonths of isoniazidMarkov modelling studiesHealth statesHealthRisk factors underlying racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes, 2011–19: a multiple mediation analysis of national surveillance data
Regan M, Barham T, Li Y, Swartwood N, Beeler Asay G, Cohen T, Horsburgh C, Khan A, Marks S, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Winston C, Menzies N. Risk factors underlying racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes, 2011–19: a multiple mediation analysis of national surveillance data. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e564-e572. PMID: 39095133, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00151-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsUS-born individualsNon-US-born individualsHispanic individualsTract-level povertyTract-level measuresEthnic disparitiesCensus tract levelCensus tract-level povertyEconomic segregationEvidence of disparitiesAnalysis of national surveillance dataBlack individualsTuberculosis outcomesNeighborhood-level social vulnerabilityTract levelUS-bornSocial vulnerabilityUS National Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemNational Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemHigh riskCensusNational surveillance dataTuberculosis Surveillance SystemCase managementReduce disparitiesThe long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study
Menzies N, Swartwood N, Cohen T, Marks S, Maloney S, Chappelle C, Miller J, Beeler Asay G, Date A, Horsburgh C, Salomon J. The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e573-e582. PMID: 39095134, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00150-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis servicesTuberculosis incidenceCenters for Disease Control and PreventionUS Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionControl and PreventionCombination of interventionsTuberculosis eliminationCountry of originIntervention scenariosInternational interventionLow tuberculosis incidenceService improvementCurrent serviceTuberculosis ProgrammeTuberculosis deathsEconomic outcomesInterventionEpidemiological dataTuberculosis burdenLong-term effectsTotal populationSimulate healthTuberculosis trendsServicesPotential of Pan-Tuberculosis Treatment to Drive Emergence of Novel Resistance - Volume 30, Number 8—August 2024 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC
McQuaid C, Ryckman T, Menzies N, White R, Cohen T, Kendall E. Potential of Pan-Tuberculosis Treatment to Drive Emergence of Novel Resistance - Volume 30, Number 8—August 2024 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2024, 30: 1571-1579. PMID: 39043388, PMCID: PMC11286077, DOI: 10.3201/eid3008.240541.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsResistance to novel drugsStandard of careAntimicrobial resistanceIncreasing prevalence of antimicrobial resistancePrevalence of antimicrobial resistanceIncreased prevalenceDrug susceptibility testingCompare treatment outcomesFirst-line drugsNovel drugsTB patient cohortTreatment regimensPatient cohortNew tuberculosisRegimensTreatment outcomesComponent drugsDrugCohortTuberculosisCDCUniversal useClinicCarePrevalencePredictors of unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Brazil: an analysis of 259,484 patient records
Ryuk D, Pelissari D, Alves K, Oliveira P, Castro M, Cohen T, Sanchez M, Menzies N. Predictors of unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Brazil: an analysis of 259,484 patient records. BMC Infectious Diseases 2024, 24: 531. PMID: 38802744, PMCID: PMC11129366, DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-09417-7.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTreatment outcomesFactors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomesHigher risk of poor treatment outcomeTB treatmentRisk of poor treatment outcomesUnsuccessful treatmentEffectiveness of TB treatmentAssociated with unsuccessful treatmentUnsuccessful treatment outcomesTuberculosis treatment outcomesDrug-susceptible TBHealth system levelMultivariate logistic regression modelService-related factorsTB drug resistanceComorbid health conditionsHealth-related behaviorsCategorizing treatment outcomesPatient-level factorsClinical examination resultsNational Disease Notification SystemPoor treatment outcomesDisease notification systemHIV infectionLogistic regression modelsDisparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data.
Li Y, Regan M, Swartwood N, Barham T, Beeler Asay G, Cohen T, Hill A, Horsburgh C, Khan A, Marks S, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Menzies N. Disparities in Tuberculosis Incidence by Race and Ethnicity Among the U.S.-Born Population in the United States, 2011 to 2021 : An Analysis of National Disease Registry Data. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2024, 177: 418-427. PMID: 38560914, DOI: 10.7326/m23-2975.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence rate ratiosNon-Hispanic white personsTB incidence rateRate ratiosIncidence rateTB incidenceSocial determinants of healthRelated disparitiesWhite personsHealth equity goalsU.S.-born populationAbsolute disparityDeterminants of healthTB registry dataRacial/ethnic minority populationsCenters for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionIncidence rate differenceTB casesYoung personControl and PreventionState of residenceAI/AN personsSocial determinantsRacial/ethnic disparitiesIdentifying local foci of tuberculosis transmission in Moldova using a spatial multinomial logistic regression model
Lan Y, Crudu V, Ciobanu N, Codreanu A, Chitwood M, Sobkowiak B, Warren J, Cohen T. Identifying local foci of tuberculosis transmission in Moldova using a spatial multinomial logistic regression model. EBioMedicine 2024, 102: 105085. PMID: 38531172, PMCID: PMC10987885, DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2024.105085.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPatterns of spatial aggregationMtb strainsMDR-TBLogistic regression modelsGenome Epidemiology StudySpecific strainsMultidrug-resistant tuberculosisTreated TB casesNational Institute of AllergyMDR phenotypeRegression modelsM. tuberculosisInstitute of AllergyMultinomial logistic regression modelUS National Institutes of HealthNational Institutes of HealthMDR diseasePublic health concernAssociated with local transmissionIncident TBInstitutes of HealthMtbResistant tuberculosisStrainDiagnosing TBRacial and ethnic disparities in diagnosis and treatment outcomes among US-born people diagnosed with tuberculosis, 2003–19: an analysis of national surveillance data
Regan M, Li Y, Swartwood N, Barham T, Asay G, Cohen T, Hill A, Horsburgh C, Khan A, Marks S, Myles R, Salomon J, Self J, Menzies N. Racial and ethnic disparities in diagnosis and treatment outcomes among US-born people diagnosed with tuberculosis, 2003–19: an analysis of national surveillance data. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e47-e56. PMID: 38176842, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00276-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsEthnicityFemaleHealthcare DisparitiesHumansMaleRacial GroupsTreatment OutcomeTuberculosisUnited StatesConceptsNational surveillance dataNon-Hispanic White peopleTreatment outcomesEthnic disparitiesSurveillance dataTuberculosis diagnosisUS National Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemIndex of disparityLog-binomial regression modelsNational Tuberculosis Surveillance SystemNon-Hispanic black peopleOverall high riskTuberculosis Surveillance SystemAlaska Native peopleTuberculosis patientsDiagnostic delayAdverse outcomesTuberculosis diseaseTuberculosis incidence
2023
Spatially-targeted tuberculosis screening has limited impact beyond household contact tracing in Lima, Peru: A model-based analysis
Havumaki J, Warren J, Zelner J, Menzies N, Calderon R, Contreras C, Lecca L, Becerra M, Murray M, Cohen T. Spatially-targeted tuberculosis screening has limited impact beyond household contact tracing in Lima, Peru: A model-based analysis. PLOS ONE 2023, 18: e0293519. PMID: 37903091, PMCID: PMC10615320, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0293519.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchGlobal burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis
Menzies N, Allwood B, Dean A, Dodd P, Houben R, James L, Knight G, Meghji J, Nguyen L, Rachow A, Schumacher S, Mirzayev F, Cohen T. Global burden of disease due to rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis: a mathematical modeling analysis. Nature Communications 2023, 14: 6182. PMID: 37794037, PMCID: PMC10550952, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41937-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDisability-adjusted life yearsRifampicin-resistant tuberculosisRR-TBGlobal burdenSubstantial short-term morbidityRifampicin-susceptible tuberculosisShort-term morbidityOverall disease burdenLong-term health impactsPost-treatment careTB survivorsDisease burdenTreatment outcomesTuberculosis survivorsCase detectionLife yearsRifampicin resistanceTuberculosisHealth impactsBurdenHealth expenditureDiseaseSurvivorsMathematical modeling analysisFormer Soviet Union countriesTabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States
Swartwood N, Testa C, Cohen T, Marks S, Hill A, Beeler Asay G, Cochran J, Cranston K, Randall L, Tibbs A, Horsburgh C, Salomon J, Menzies N. Tabby2: a user-friendly web tool for forecasting state-level TB outcomes in the United States. BMC Medicine 2023, 21: 331. PMID: 37649031, PMCID: PMC10469407, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-023-02785-y.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLatent tuberculosis infectionTB outcomesDistrict of ColumbiaTreatment of LTBIIncremental cost-effectiveness ratioTB incidence rateTuberculosis disease burdenQuality-adjusted life yearsCost-effectiveness ratioPublic health agenciesTB casesTB preventionTB incidenceTuberculosis infectionTB epidemiologyDisease burdenIncidence rateService utilizationAdditional interventionsIncidence projectionsLife yearsDemographic dataSocietal perspectiveHealth agenciesPrevention approachesGlobal, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis
Martinez L, Warren J, Harries A, Croda J, Espinal M, Olarte R, Avedillo P, Lienhardt C, Bhatia V, Liu Q, Chakaya J, Denholm J, Lin Y, Kawatsu L, Zhu L, Horsburgh C, Cohen T, Andrews J. Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence and case detection among incarcerated individuals from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis. The Lancet Public Health 2023, 8: e511-e519. PMID: 37393090, PMCID: PMC10323309, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00097-x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis incidenceCase detection ratioIncidence rateCase detectionHigh tuberculosis incidence ratesGlobal tuberculosis control effortsIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateIncarcerated individualsTuberculosis control effortsTuberculosis case detectionTuberculosis casesNotification ratesNational incidenceTuberculosis notificationsGlobal incidenceHigh riskPrevalence estimatesNational estimatesWHO regionsIncidenceStudy periodMeta-regression frameworkTuberculosisNational InstituteTransmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics
Dodd P, Shaweno D, Ku C, Glaziou P, Pretorius C, Hayes R, MacPherson P, Cohen T, Ayles H. Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics. Nature Communications 2023, 14: 1639. PMID: 36964130, PMCID: PMC10037365, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37314-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh HIV prevalence settingsEstimation of burdenHIV prevalence settingsGeneralized HIV epidemicsTB transmission modelAntiretroviral therapyTB infectionTB incidenceHIV prevalenceTB prevalencePrevalence settingsTB epidemicHIV epidemicHigh burdenBurden estimatesNotification dataAnnual riskSingle pathogenIntervention impactTherapy effectsTuberculosisPrevalenceEpidemicBurdenAfrican countriesDevelopment of treatment-decision algorithms for children evaluated for pulmonary tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis
Gunasekera K, Marcy O, Muñoz J, Lopez-Varela E, Sekadde M, Franke M, Bonnet M, Ahmed S, Amanullah F, Anwar A, Augusto O, Aurilio R, Banu S, Batool I, Brands A, Cain K, Carratalá-Castro L, Caws M, Click E, Cranmer L, García-Basteiro A, Hesseling A, Huynh J, Kabir S, Lecca L, Mandalakas A, Mavhunga F, Myint A, Myo K, Nampijja D, Nicol M, Orikiriza P, Palmer M, Sant'Anna C, Siddiqui S, Smith J, Song R, Thuong Thuong N, Ung V, van der Zalm M, Verkuijl S, Viney K, Walters E, Warren J, Zar H, Marais B, Graham S, Debray T, Cohen T, Seddon J. Development of treatment-decision algorithms for children evaluated for pulmonary tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis. The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health 2023, 7: 336-346. PMID: 36924781, PMCID: PMC10127218, DOI: 10.1016/s2352-4642(23)00004-4.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdolescentAlgorithmsChildHumansRetrospective StudiesTriageTuberculosisTuberculosis, PulmonaryUnited StatesConceptsTreatment decision algorithmsPrimary health care settingsIndividual participant dataHigh tuberculosis incidencePulmonary tuberculosisManagement of tuberculosisHealth care centersComposite reference standardHealth care settingsClinical featuresTuberculosis incidenceClinical evaluationParticipant dataTreatment decisionsChest X-ray featuresPrimary health care centersFuture prospective evaluationTuberculosis-related mortalityEvidence-based algorithmChest X-rayVariable diagnostic performanceMultivariable prediction modelReference standardEvidence-based approachTuberculosis expertsEstimated rates of progression to tuberculosis disease for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States
Ekramnia M, Li Y, Haddad M, Marks S, Kammerer J, Swartwood N, Cohen T, Miller J, Horsburgh C, Salomon J, Menzies N. Estimated rates of progression to tuberculosis disease for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States. Epidemiology 2023, 35: 164-173. PMID: 38290139, PMCID: PMC10832387, DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001707.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsInterferon-gamma release assayNational Health and Nutrition Examination SurveyHealth and Nutrition Examination SurveyUS-born statusNational TB Surveillance SystemReactivation TBNutrition Examination SurveyInterferon-gammaIGRA sensitivityTB surveillance systemProgression to tuberculosis diseaseNationally representative dataEnd-stage renal diseaseReactivation rateAmerican Community SurveyExamination SurveyPerson yearsRace-ethnicityUS populationTB ratesTB incidenceCommunity SurveyRepresentative dataSurveillance systemRelease assay
2022
Quantifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission Dynamics Across Global Settings: A Systematic Analysis
Smith J, Cohen T, Dowdy D, Shrestha S, Gandhi NR, Hill AN. Quantifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission Dynamics Across Global Settings: A Systematic Analysis. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2022, 192: 133-145. PMID: 36227246, PMCID: PMC10144641, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwac181.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsHumansMycobacterium tuberculosisTuberculosisTuberculosis, Multidrug-ResistantWhole Genome SequencingConceptsTB transmissionOngoing TB transmissionMinority of casesTuberculosis transmission dynamicsTB controlTuberculosis transmissionSecondary casesSources of heterogeneityInclusion criteriaSurveillance studyTransmission clustersInitial searchTransmission dynamicsWhole-genome sequencingPopulation levelSettingRe-evaluating the health impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis preventive treatment for modern HIV cohorts on antiretroviral therapy: a modelling analysis using data from Tanzania
Zhu J, Lyatuu G, Sudfeld CR, Kiravu A, Sando D, Machumi L, Minde J, Chisonjela F, Cohen T, Menzies NA. Re-evaluating the health impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis preventive treatment for modern HIV cohorts on antiretroviral therapy: a modelling analysis using data from Tanzania. The Lancet Global Health 2022, 10: e1646-e1654. PMID: 36240830, PMCID: PMC9553191, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00372-2.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAntitubercular AgentsCD4 Lymphocyte CountCost-Benefit AnalysisHIV InfectionsHumansIsoniazidTanzaniaTuberculosisConceptsIsoniazid preventive therapyCD4 cell countAntiretroviral therapyCell countART cohortAverage CD4 cell countHigher CD4 cell countsLarge HIV treatment programHealth impactsTuberculosis preventive treatmentHIV treatment programsLifetime costsIncremental lifetime costLifetime health benefitsCourse of infectionGreater health gainsLong-term healthART initiationTreat guidelinesHIV cohortPreventive therapyTuberculosis riskUS National InstitutesHIV programsSubgroup analysisNational survey in South Africa reveals high tuberculosis prevalence among previously treated people
Marx FM, Hesseling AC, Martinson N, Theron G, Cohen T. National survey in South Africa reveals high tuberculosis prevalence among previously treated people. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2022, 22: 1273. PMID: 36029778, DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00494-7.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchExcess tuberculosis cases and deaths following an economic recession in Brazil: an analysis of nationally representative disease registry data
Li Y, de Macedo Couto R, Pelissari DM, Costa Alves L, Bartholomay P, Maciel EL, Sanchez M, Castro MC, Cohen T, Menzies NA. Excess tuberculosis cases and deaths following an economic recession in Brazil: an analysis of nationally representative disease registry data. The Lancet Global Health 2022, 10: e1463-e1472. PMID: 36049488, PMCID: PMC9472578, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00320-5.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsNational Notifiable Diseases Information SystemTuberculosis casesTuberculosis deathsExcess casesTuberculosis case ratesTuberculosis transmissionCase ratesNotifiable Diseases Information SystemTuberculosis case notificationDisease registry dataMortality Information SystemMixed effects regression modelsSupplementary Materials sectionFraction of casesTuberculosis controlUS National InstitutesTuberculosis incidenceCase notificationRegistry dataExcess deathsAge groupsDeathPossible explanatory factorsNational InstituteYoung menNeighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios for adult bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis reveals hotspots of underdiagnosis in Blantyre, Malawi
Khundi M, Carpenter JR, Corbett EL, Feasey HRA, Soko RN, Nliwasa M, Twabi H, Chiume L, Burke RM, Horton KC, Dodd PJ, Cohen T, MacPherson P. Neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios for adult bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis reveals hotspots of underdiagnosis in Blantyre, Malawi. PLOS ONE 2022, 17: e0268749. PMID: 35605004, PMCID: PMC9126376, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268749.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdultBayes TheoremHumansMalawiMass ScreeningMycobacterium tuberculosisPrevalenceSputumTuberculosisConceptsCase notification ratesPrevalence surveyNotification ratioNeighbourhood prevalenceTB case notification ratesXpert MTB/RIFCase-finding interventionsTrue disease burdenChest X-ray screeningTB prevalence surveyTB surveillance systemMTB/RIFDiagnosis of tuberculosisSputum smear microscopyTB clinicTB patientsRespiratory infectionsTB prevalenceDisease burdenNotification ratesSmear microscopyX-ray screeningTuberculosisPrevalenceUrban tuberculosis