2019
CP*Trends: An Online Tool for Comparing Cohort and Period Trends Across Cancer Sites
Holford TR, Chen HS, Annett D, Krapcho M, Dorogaeva A, Feuer EJ. CP*Trends: An Online Tool for Comparing Cohort and Period Trends Across Cancer Sites. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2019, 188: 1361-1370. PMID: 30989187, PMCID: PMC6601534, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwz089.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsColorectal cancer incidenceCancer incidenceCancer sitesContribution of periodMale prostate cancerEnd Results (SEER) dataStudy of etiologyFemale lungCancer mortalityBronchial cancerProstate cancerCohortDisease controlRelevant exposuresIncidenceAge shiftLungCancerMortalityP scoreAgeResult dataPeriod trendsPeriodPercentage of deviance
2018
A spatiotemporal back‐calculation approach to estimate cancer incidence measures
Nautiyal N, Holford TR. A spatiotemporal back‐calculation approach to estimate cancer incidence measures. Statistics In Medicine 2018, 37: 4472-4489. PMID: 30155939, DOI: 10.1002/sim.7934.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2016
Spatiotemporal calibration and resolution refinement of output from deterministic models
Gilani O, McKay LA, Gregoire TG, Guan Y, Leaderer BP, Holford TR. Spatiotemporal calibration and resolution refinement of output from deterministic models. Statistics In Medicine 2016, 35: 2422-2440. PMID: 26790617, DOI: 10.1002/sim.6867.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsGrid-cell formatCurrent calibration techniquesSpatiotemporal calibrationModeling strategyCommunity Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelAir quality modelsMultiscale Air Quality modelCalibration techniqueObserved measurementsPixel sizeSpatial resolutionGrid dataMonitoring stationsQuality modelDeterministic modelRegular gridAmbient nitrogen dioxide concentrationsDaily estimatesMeasurementsProcess of interestGridNitrogen dioxide concentrationsProcessPixelsDioxide concentration
2015
Age‐Period‐Cohort approaches to back‐calculation of cancer incidence rate
Oh C, Holford TR. Age‐Period‐Cohort approaches to back‐calculation of cancer incidence rate. Statistics In Medicine 2015, 34: 1953-1964. PMID: 25715831, PMCID: PMC4980760, DOI: 10.1002/sim.6464.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCancer incidence ratesEstimates of incidenceHealth care planningCancer deathLung cancerCancer prevalenceCancer incidenceIncidence rateHealthy subjectsCare planningSurvival informationMortality statisticsCancerIncidence casesIncidenceAge periodDeathSubjectsCompartment modelCohortMortalityPrevalence
2014
Patterns of Birth Cohort–Specific Smoking Histories, 1965–2009
Holford TR, Levy DT, McKay LA, Clarke L, Racine B, Meza R, Land S, Jeon J, Feuer EJ. Patterns of Birth Cohort–Specific Smoking Histories, 1965–2009. American Journal Of Preventive Medicine 2014, 46: e31-e37. PMID: 24439359, PMCID: PMC3951759, DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2013.10.022.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleModels, StatisticalPrevalenceSmokingSmoking CessationUnited StatesConceptsSmoking historyBirth cohortU.S. National Health Interview SurveyNational Health Interview SurveySmoking-related mortalityHealth Interview SurveyTobacco control interventionsCurrent smoking behaviorAge-specific distributionSmoking statusSmoking patternsSmoking intensitySurvival differencesSmoking behaviorCohortControl interventionsDifferent birth cohortsDate of surveyInterview SurveyIntervention strategiesCohort modelSmokersAgePrevalenceSlow decline
2012
Chapter 14: Comparing the Adequacy of Carcinogenesis Models in Estimating U.S. Population Rates for Lung Cancer Mortality
Holford TR, Levy DT. Chapter 14: Comparing the Adequacy of Carcinogenesis Models in Estimating U.S. Population Rates for Lung Cancer Mortality. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s179-s189. PMID: 22882888, PMCID: PMC3478769, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01734.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer mortalityCancer mortalityCarcinogenesis modelLung cancer mortality ratesU.S. population ratesEffect of smokingCancer Prevention StudyCancer mortality ratesPopulation ratesTwo-stage clonal expansion modelEffect of ageSmoking trendsLung cancerPrevention StudyEstimates of riskMortality rateClonal expansionClonal expansion modelCohort modelSmokingIndividual cohortsCohortMortalityU.S. malesTemporal trendsChapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model
Holford TR, Ebisu K, McKay L, Oh C, Zheng T. Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s151-s165. PMID: 22882886, PMCID: PMC3662537, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01754.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer deathsCarcinogenesis modelCancer deathLung cancer incidenceLung cancer modelTwo-stage clonal expansion modelCigarette smokingCancer incidenceCancer modelTobacco controlClonal expansion modelPopulation ratesCohort modelSmokingDeathHarmful effectsPopulation dataTemporal trendsMortalityObserved numberIncidenceControlImpact of Reduced Tobacco Smoking on Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States During 1975–2000
Moolgavkar SH, Holford TR, Levy DT, Kong CY, Foy M, Clarke L, Jeon J, Hazelton WD, Meza R, Schultz F, McCarthy W, Boer R, Gorlova O, Gazelle GS, Kimmel M, McMahon PM, de Koning HJ, Feuer EJ. Impact of Reduced Tobacco Smoking on Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States During 1975–2000. Journal Of The National Cancer Institute 2012, 104: 541-548. PMID: 22423009, PMCID: PMC3317881, DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djs136.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer deathsLung cancer mortalityCancer deathSmoking behaviorCancer mortalityMajor public health problemTobacco controlPublic health problemTobacco control strategiesNumber of deathsSmoking historyTobacco smokingLung cancerGroups of investigatorsBirth cohortHealth problemsFirst reportSmokingMortalityDeathUnited StatesWomenMenCohortCancer
2001
The Natural History of Periodontal Disease in Man. Risk Factors for Progression of Attachment Loss in Individuals Receiving No Oral Health Care
Neely A, Holford T, Löe H, Ånerud Å, Boysen H. The Natural History of Periodontal Disease in Man. Risk Factors for Progression of Attachment Loss in Individuals Receiving No Oral Health Care. Journal Of Periodontology 2001, 72: 1006-1015. PMID: 11525431, DOI: 10.1902/jop.2001.72.8.1006.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHistory of smokingAttachment lossPeriodontal attachment lossGingival indexCalculus indexPlaque indexRisk factorsPeriodontal diseaseNatural historyMean attachment lossOral health assessmentProfessional dental careOral health careFinal adjusted modelPotential risk factorsMesio-buccal surfaceThird molar teethBetel nut useAbsence of teethCaries indexDental careAttachment levelAdjusted modelNut useMolar teeth1,1-Dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene and Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Breast Cancer: Combined Analysis of Five U.S. Studies
Laden F, Collman G, Iwamoto K, Alberg A, Berkowitz G, Freudenheim J, Hankinson S, Helzlsouer K, Holford T, Huang H, Moysich K, Tessari J, Wolff M, Zheng T, Hunter D. 1,1-Dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene and Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Breast Cancer: Combined Analysis of Five U.S. Studies. Journal Of The National Cancer Institute 2001, 93: 768-775. PMID: 11353787, DOI: 10.1093/jnci/93.10.768.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsBreast cancer riskBreast cancerCancer riskRisk factorsEffect modificationOdds ratioBreast cancer risk factorsElevated breast cancer riskAssess effect modificationBody mass indexCancer risk factorsConfidence intervalsPooled odds ratioPotential risk factorsPlasma/serum concentrationsAssociation of levelsLarge U.S. studiesRandom-effects modelCase patientsMass indexMiddle tertileFifth quintilePooled analysisControl subjectsSerum concentrations
1996
A MODEL FOR THE EFFECT OF CIGARETTE SMOKING ON LUNG CANCER INCIDENCE IN CONNECTICUT
HOLFORD T, ZHANG Z, ZHENG T, MCKAY L. A MODEL FOR THE EFFECT OF CIGARETTE SMOKING ON LUNG CANCER INCIDENCE IN CONNECTICUT. Statistics In Medicine 1996, 15: 565-580. PMID: 8731001, DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19960330)15:6<565::aid-sim185>3.0.co;2-t.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer incidenceCancer incidenceIncidence rateLung cancer incidence ratesLung cancer incidence trendsEffect of smokingCancer incidence ratesCancer incidence trendsCohort studyCurrent smokersLevel of exposureMale smokersSmoking historySmoking subgroupsSmoking informationCigarette smokingMean durationSmoking prevalenceIncidence trendsSmokersSmokingPrevalenceCohort effectsAge distributionIncidence
1995
Editorial
Holford T. Editorial. Statistical Methods In Medical Research 1995, 4: 185-186. PMID: 8548101, DOI: 10.1177/096228029500400301.Commentaries, Editorials and Letters
1994
Time trend and the age‐period‐cohort effect on the incidence of histologic types of lung cancer in connecticut, 1960‐1989
Zheng T, Holford T, Boyle P, Chen Y, Ward B, Flannery J, Mayne S. Time trend and the age‐period‐cohort effect on the incidence of histologic types of lung cancer in connecticut, 1960‐1989. Cancer 1994, 74: 1556-1567. PMID: 8062189, DOI: 10.1002/1097-0142(19940901)74:5<1556::aid-cncr2820740511>3.0.co;2-0.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdenocarcinomaAdenocarcinoma, Bronchiolo-AlveolarAdultAge FactorsAgedAged, 80 and overCarcinomaCarcinoma, Small CellCarcinoma, Squamous CellCohort EffectCohort StudiesConnecticutFemaleHumansIncidenceLung NeoplasmsMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalRegistriesSex FactorsSmokingTime FactorsConceptsAge-adjusted incidence ratesMajor histologic typesOverall age-adjusted incidence rateAge-specific incidence ratesHistologic typeLung cancer incidenceLung cancerIncidence rateBirth cohortRecent birth cohortsIncidence patternsObserved time trendsCell carcinomaCancer incidenceTime trendsConnecticut Tumor RegistryIncidence of adenocarcinomaSmall cell carcinomaSquamous cell carcinomaLung cancer casesRecent epidemiologic studiesDifferent histologic typesDifferent incidence patternsObserved incidence patternsTumor RegistryAge‐period‐cohort modelling of large‐bowel‐cancer incidence by anatomic sub‐site and sex in Denmark
Dubrow R, Johansen C, Skov T, Holford T. Age‐period‐cohort modelling of large‐bowel‐cancer incidence by anatomic sub‐site and sex in Denmark. International Journal Of Cancer 1994, 58: 324-329. PMID: 8050812, DOI: 10.1002/ijc.2910580303.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMalignant melanoma incidence in Connecticut (United States): time trends and age-period-cohort modeling by anatomic site
Chen Y, Zheng T, Holford T, Berwick M, Dubrow R. Malignant melanoma incidence in Connecticut (United States): time trends and age-period-cohort modeling by anatomic site. Cancer Causes & Control 1994, 5: 341-350. PMID: 8080946, DOI: 10.1007/bf01804985.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCutaneous malignant melanomaAnatomic sitesUpper limbPopulation-based Connecticut Tumor RegistryCohort patternsConnecticut Tumor RegistryMale-female ratioMalignant melanoma incidenceTime trendsCMM incidenceNeck melanomaTumor RegistryIncident casesMalignant melanomaMelanoma incidenceEtiologic distinctionsCarcinogenic exposuresLower limbsLargest absolute increaseMelanomaCohort modelingAbsolute increaseIncidenceLimbLargest relative increaseEstimating age, period and cohort effects using the multistage model for cancer
Holford T, Zhang Z, McKay L. Estimating age, period and cohort effects using the multistage model for cancer. Statistics In Medicine 1994, 13: 23-41. PMID: 9061838, DOI: 10.1002/sim.4780130105.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
1993
Age‐period‐cohort modelling of large‐bowel‐cancer incidence by anatomic sub‐site and sex in connecticut
Dubrow R, Bernstein J, Holford T. Age‐period‐cohort modelling of large‐bowel‐cancer incidence by anatomic sub‐site and sex in connecticut. International Journal Of Cancer 1993, 53: 907-913. PMID: 8473049, DOI: 10.1002/ijc.2910530607.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLeft colonCohort patternsTransverse colonLarge bowelCancer incidenceEtiologic distinctionsConnecticut Tumor RegistryTumor RegistrySigmoid colonCancer casesCohort modellingBirth cohortConnecticut residentsColonRectumCohort modelSexBowelIncidenceDiagnosisMalesFemalesCommon patternRegistryCohortThe risk of determining risk with multivariable models.
Concato J, Feinstein A, Holford T. The risk of determining risk with multivariable models. Annals Of Internal Medicine 1993, 118: 201-10. PMID: 8417638, DOI: 10.7326/0003-4819-118-3-199302010-00009.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
1992
Analysing the temporal effects of age, period and cohort
Holford T. Analysing the temporal effects of age, period and cohort. Statistical Methods In Medical Research 1992, 1: 317-337. PMID: 1341663, DOI: 10.1177/096228029200100306.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
1991
Understanding the Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Incidence and Mortality Rates
Holford T. Understanding the Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Incidence and Mortality Rates. Annual Review Of Public Health 1991, 12: 425-457. PMID: 2049144, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.pu.12.050191.002233.Peer-Reviewed Original Research