2017
A Likelihood Approach for Real-Time Calibration of Stochastic Compartmental Epidemic Models
Zimmer C, Yaesoubi R, Cohen T. A Likelihood Approach for Real-Time Calibration of Stochastic Compartmental Epidemic Models. PLOS Computational Biology 2017, 13: e1005257. PMID: 28095403, PMCID: PMC5240920, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005257.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsParameter estimationStochastic modelLinear noise approximationStochastic transmission-dynamic modelEnsemble Kalman filter methodReal-time parameter estimationKey epidemic parametersParticle filtering methodInfectious individualsStochastic systemsCompartmental epidemic modelLikelihood approximationMultiple shootingNoise approximationBenchmark methodsEpidemic modelPoisson observationsKalman filter methodUnobserved numberAccurate estimatesEpidemic parametersLikelihood approachFiltering methodDynamic modelApproximation
2012
The dynamics of sexual contact networks: Effects on disease spread and control
Robinson K, Cohen T, Colijn C. The dynamics of sexual contact networks: Effects on disease spread and control. Theoretical Population Biology 2012, 81: 89-96. PMID: 22248701, PMCID: PMC3328800, DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2011.12.009.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDuration of infectiousnessHigh-activity individualsBehavioral interventionsBehavioral risk factorsControl of STDsHigh-risk individualsDifferent risk groupsWidespread screening programsHigh-risk subpopulationsPopulation-wide interventionsSexual network structureIndividual-level riskRisk factorsRisk groupsScreening programRisk subpopulationsGreater relative decreaseDynamics of transmissionSexual contactSexual partnershipsBiomedical interventionsInfectiousnessLonger durationComparable benefitsIntervention
2003
Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, Robins JM, Ma S, James L, Gopalakrishna G, Chew SK, Tan CC, Samore MH, Fisman D, Murray M. Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. Science 2003, 300: 1966-1970. PMID: 12766207, PMCID: PMC2760158, DOI: 10.1126/science.1086616.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSevere acute respiratory syndromeAcute respiratory syndromeRespiratory syndromePublic health effortsDetailed epidemiologic dataSingle infectious caseEpidemiologic dataSecondary casesAbsence of interventionInfectious casesEpidemic curveTransmission dynamicsSyndromeReproductive numberControl measuresIllnessIllnesses of humansMonths