Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Collaborators G, Bhattacharjee N, Schumacher A, Aali A, Abate Y, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, ElHafeez S, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abebe S, Abiodun O, Abolhassani H, Abolmaali M, Abouzid M, Aboye G, Abreu L, Abrha W, Abrigo M, Abtahi D, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh N, Adal T, Adane M, Adeagbo O, Adedoyin R, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adepoju A, Adetokunboh O, Adetunji J, Adeyinka D, Adeyomoye O, Adnani Q, Adra S, Afolabi R, Afyouni S, Afzal M, Afzal S, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah B, Ahlstrom A, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad M, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed L, Ahmed M, Ahmed S, Ajami M, Aji B, Akalu G, Akbarialiabad H, Akinyemi R, Akkaif M, Akkala S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan S, Al Qadire M, AL-Ahdal T, Alalalmeh S, Alalwan T, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Al-amer R, Alanezi F, Alanzi T, Albakri A, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh M, Alemi H, Alemi S, Alemu Y, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Gheethi A, Alhabib K, Alhajri N, Alhalaiqa F, Alhassan R, Ali A, Ali B, Ali L, Ali M, Ali R, Ali S, Alif M, Aligol M, Alijanzadeh M, Aljasir M, Aljunid S, Al-Marwani S, Almazan J, Al-Mekhlafi H, Almidani O, Alomari M, Al-Omari B, Alqahtani J, Alqutaibi A, Al-Raddadi R, Al-Sabah S, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq J, Altirkawi K, Aluh D, Alvi F, Alvis-Guzman N, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi Y, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi K, Ameyaw E, Amin T, Amindarolzarbi A, Amini-Rarani M, Amiri S, Ampomah I, Amugsi D, Amusa G, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrade P, Andrei C, Andrei T, Anil A, Anil S, Ansar A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony C, Antriyandarti E, Anvari S, ANWAR S, Anwer R, Anyasodor A, Arabloo J, Bahri R, Arafa E, Arafat M, Araújo A, Aravkin A, Aremu A, Aripov T, Arkew M, Armocida B, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov A, Arulappan J, Aruleba R, Arumugam A, Asadi-Lari M, Asemi Z, Asgary S, Asghariahmadabad M, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashemo M, Ashraf M, Ashraf T, Asika M, Athari S, Atout M, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Aweke A, Ayele G, Ayyoubzadeh S, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo R, Azzam A, Badar M, Badiye A, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bahmanziari N, Bai R, Baig A, Baker J, Bako A, Bakshi R, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu O, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik B, Banik P, Bansal H, Baran M, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo S, Bärnighausen T, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi H, Barrow A, Barteit S, Basharat Z, Bashir A, Bashiru H, Basiru A, Basso J, Basu S, Batiha A, Batra K, Baune B, Bayati M, Begum T, Behboudi E, Behnoush A, Beiranvand M, Ramirez D, Bekele A, Belay S, Belgaumi U, Bell M, Bello O, Beloukas A, Bensenor I, Berezvai Z, Berhie A, Bermudez A, Bettencourt P, Bhagavathula A, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti G, Bhatti J, Bhatti M, Bhatti R, Biondi A, Bisignano C, Biswas A, Biswas R, Bitra V, Bjørge T, Bliss E, Boachie M, Bobirca A, Bodolica V, Bodunrin A, Bogale E, Bogale K, Hashemi M, Basara B, Bouaoud S, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Breitborde N, Bryazka D, Bulamu N, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns R, Bustanji Y, Butt N, Butt Z, dos Santos F, Calina D, Campos-Nonato I, Cao F, Cao S, Capodici A, Carreras G, Carugno A, Castañeda-Orjuela C, Castelpietra G, Cattaruzza M, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cerin E, Chadwick J, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chalek J, Chan J, Charalampous P, Chattu V, Chaturvedi S, Chavula M, Chen A, Chen H, Chen S, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chien J, Ching P, Cho W, Choi S, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhari S, Christopher D, Chu D, Chukwu I, Chung E, Chung S, Cindi Z, Cioffi I, Ciuffreda R, Claro R, Coberly K, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Criqui M, Cruz-Martins N, Cuadra-Hernández S, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dahiru T, Dai Z, Dalton B, Damiani G, Darwesh A, Das J, Das S, Dashti M, Dastiridou A, Dávila-Cervantes C, Davletov K, Debele A, Debopadhaya S, Delavari S, Delgado-Enciso I, Demeke D, Demessa B, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Desai H, Desai R, Devanbu V, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Dhulipala V, da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz M, Dima A, Ding D, Dirac M, Chi T, Phuong T, do Prado C, Dohare S, Dong W, D'Oria M, dos Santos W, Doshmangir L, Dowou R, Dsouza A, Dsouza H, Dsouza V, Dube J, Duprey J, Duraes A, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye O, Dutta S, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Dzianach P, Dziedzic A, Ebrahimi A, Edinur H, Edvardsson K, Efendi F, Eikemo T, Ekholuenetale M, Tantawi M, Elemam N, ElGohary G, Elhadi M, Elilo L, Elmeligy O, Elmonem M, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Zeydi A, Bain L, Eskandarieh S, Esposito F, Estep K, Etaee F, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe A, Fahimi S, Fakhri-Demeshghieh A, Falzone L, Faramarzi A, Faris M, Farmer S, Faro A, Fasanmi A, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk N, Fazeli P, Feigin V, Fereshtehnejad S, Feroze A, Ferrara P, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Foigt N, Folayan M, Fomenkov A, Foroutan B, Foschi M, Fowobaje K, Francis K, Freitas A, Fukumoto T, Fuller J, Fux B, Gaal P, Gadanya M, Gaidhane A, Galali Y, Gallus S, Gandhi A, Ganesan B, Ganiyani M, Garcia-Gordillo M, Garg N, Gautam R, Gazzelloni F, Gbadamosi S, Gebregergis M, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam T, Gebremariam T, Gebremeskel T, Geda Y, Georgescu S, Gerema U, Geremew H, Getachew M, Gething P, Ghasemi M, Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy R, Ghimire S, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghorbani M, Ghoshal A, Ghuge A, Gil A, Gill T, Giorgi M, Girmay A, Glasbey J, Göbölös L, Goel A, Golchin A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gopalani S, Goudarzi H, Goulart A, Goyal A, Graham S, Grivna M, Guan S, Guarducci G, Gubari M, Gudeta M, Guicciardi S, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane D, Guo C, Gupta A, Gupta B, Gupta M, Gupta M, Gupta S, Gupta V, Gupta V, Gupta V, Haakenstad A, Habibzadeh F, Hadi N, Haep N, Hajibeygi R, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh R, Hamdy N, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Han Q, Handal A, Hankey G, Haque N, Haro J, Hasaballah A, Hasan I, Hasan M, Hasan S, Hasani H, Hasnain S, Hassan A, Hassan I, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hay S, Hebert J, Hegazi O, Heidari M, Helfer B, Hemmati M, Herrera-Serna B, Herteliu C, Hessami K, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoan N, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain M, Hossain M, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh V, Hu C, Huang J, Huda M, Humayun A, Hussain J, Hussein N, Huynh H, Hwang B, Ibitoye S, Iftikhar P, Ilesanmi O, Ilic I, Ilic M, Immurana M, Inbaraj L, Iqbal A, Islam R, Ismail N, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iyer M, J L, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun A, Jakovljevic M, Jamshidi E, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayapal S, Jayaram S, Jee S, Jeganathan J, Jha A, Jha R, Jiang H, Jokar M, Jonas J, Joo T, Joseph N, Joshua C, Joukar F, Jozwiak J, Jürisson M, Vaishali K, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir A, Kabir H, Kabir Z, Kalani R, Kalankesh L, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamath R, Kamath S, Kanchan T, Kanmiki E, Kanmodi K, S S, Kansal S, Kantar R, Kapoor N, Karajizadeh M, Karami M, Karaye I, Kashoo F, Kasraei H, Kassebaum N, Kassel M, Kauppila J, Kazemi F, Kazeminia S, Kempen J, Kendal E, Keshtkar K, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid N, Khalil A, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan A, Khan I, Khan M, Khan M, Khan M, Khan M, Khang Y, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khavandegar A, Kashani H, Khidri F, Khormali M, Khosravi M, Khosrowjerdi M, Kidane W, Kifle Z, Kim J, Kim M, Kimokoti R, Kinzel K, Kiross G, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kolahi A, Kompani F, Koren G, Korzh O, Kosen S, Laxminarayana S, Krishan K, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Defo B, Kubeisy C, Bicer B, Kuddus A, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kulimbet M, Kumar H, Kundu S, Kunle K, Kurmi O, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kyei E, Kyriopoulos I, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan M, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lai D, Lal D, Lalloo R, Lám J, Lamnisos D, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larson H, Larsson A, Lasrado S, Latief K, Latifinaibin K, Le L, Le N, Le T, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee P, Lee S, Lee Y, Lema G, Leong E, Lerango T, Li A, Li M, Li S, Li W, Li X, Ligade V, Lim S, Lin R, Lindstedt P, Listl S, Liu G, Liu J, Liu X, Liu X, Liu Y, Llanaj E, López-Bueno R, Lopukhov P, Lorenzovici L, Lotufo P, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Lv H, Feei Z, Maass K, Machoy M, Madureira-Carvalho Á, Razek M, Maghazachi A, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud M, Majeed A, Malagón-Rojas J, Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik A, Malik I, Malta D, Mamun A, Manla Y, Mansoori Y, Mansour A, Mansouri B, Mansouri Z, Mansournia M, Maravilla J, Marino M, Marjani A, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martins-Melo F, Martorell M, Maryam S, Marzo R, Masoudi A, Mattumpuram J, Maude R, Maugeri A, May E, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, McGrath J, McKee M, McKowen A, McLaughlin S, McPhail S, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Nasab E, Meto T, Mendez-Lopez M, Mendoza W, Menezes R, Mensah G, Mentis A, Meo A, Merati M, Meretoja A, Meretoja T, Mersha A, Mestrovic T, Metanat P, Mettananda K, Mettananda S, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Miazgowski T, Micha G, Michalek I, Miller T, Minh L, Mirghafourvand M, Mirrakhimov E, Mirutse M, Mirza M, Mirzaei R, Mishra A, Misra S, Mitchell P, Mittal C, Moazen B, Mohamed A, Mohamed A, Mohamed J, Mohamed M, Mohamed N, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mokdad A, Mokhtarzadehazar P, Vardanjani H, Molinaro S, Monasta L, Moni M, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moraga P, Moreira R, Morovatdar N, Morrison S, Morze J, Mosapour A, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mousavi P, Khaneghah A, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Musa J, Musaigwa F, Musina A, Muthu S, Muthupandian S, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nagarajan A, Nagel G, Naghavi P, Naik G, Naik G, Naimzada M, Nainu F, Nangia V, Swamy S, Nascimento B, Nascimento G, Naser A, Nasiri M, Natto Z, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak B, Nayak V, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba S, Negash H, Negesse C, Negoi I, Negoi R, Nejadghaderi S, Nejjari C, Nepal S, Netsere H, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri J, Nguyen D, Nguyen H, Phuong The Nguyen, Nguyen Q, Nguyen V, Niazi R, Nigatu Y, Nikolouzakis T, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor A, Nnaji C, Nnyanzi L, Noman E, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Nri-Ezedi C, Nunemo M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Nutor J, Oancea B, Obamiro K, Odetokun I, Odogwu N, O'Donnell M, Odukoya O, Oguntade A, Oguta J, Oh I, Okeke S, Okekunle A, Okonji O, Okwute P, Olagunju A, Olasupo O, Olatubi M, Oliveira G, Olusanya B, Olusanya J, Oluwatunase G, Omar H, Omer G, Onwujekwe O, Ordak M, Orisakwe O, Orish V, Ortega-Altamirano D, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Prado E, Osman W, Osuagwu U, Osuolale O, Otoiu A, Otstavnov S, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi M, Ozten Y, A M, Fallahy M, Pan F, Pan H, Pana A, Panda P, Panda-Jonas S, Pangaribuan H, Panos G, Panos L, Pantazopoulos I, Stoian A, Parikh R, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Passera R, Patel H, Patel J, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati V, Paudel U, Paun M, Toroudi H, Pease S, Peden A, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito V, Peprah, Pereira G, Peres M, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Perna S, Pestell R, Petermann-Rocha F, Pham H, Philip A, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott D, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Pollner P, Poluru R, Postma M, Pourali G, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prabhu D, Prada S, Pradhan P, Prasad M, Prashant A, Purohit B, Puvvula J, Qasim N, Qattea I, Deepthi R, Rad M, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan V, Raee P, Shahraki H, Rafiei A, Alavi S, Raggi C, Raghav P, Rahim F, Rahim J, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahmanian V, Rahmati M, Rahnavard N, Rai P, Raimondo D, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajput P, Ram P, Ramasamy S, Rana J, Rana K, Rana S, Ranabhat C, Rancic N, Rane A, Ranjan S, Rao C, Rao I, Rapaka D, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashidi M, Rasul A, Ratan Z, Babu G, Rauniyar S, Ravikumar N, Rawaf D, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Rawlley B, Reddy M, Redwan E, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Rezaei N, Nejad A, Rezaeian M, Riad A, Riaz M, Rickard J, Rikhtegar R, Robinson-Oden H, Rodrigues C, Rodriguez J, Rohilla R, Romadlon D, Ronfani L, Rout H, Roy B, Roy N, Roy P, Rubagotti E, de Andrade Ruela G, Rumisha S, Runghien T, Manjula S, Chandan S, Saad A, Saadatian Z, Saber-Ayad M, SaberiKamarposhti M, Sabour S, Sada F, Saddik B, Sadee B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi E, Saeb M, Saeed U, Safi S, Sagoe D, Saha M, Sahebkar A, Sahoo S, Sahu M, Saif Z, Sakshaug J, Salamati P, Salami A, Saleh M, Salem M, Salem M, Salimi S, Samadzadeh S, Samodra Y, Samuel V, Samy A, Sanabria J, Sanadgol N, Sanna F, Santric-Milicevic M, Saqib H, Saraswathy S, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar T, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode G, Sarode S, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sathyanarayan A, Sayeed A, Abu Sayeed, Scarmeas N, Schlee W, Schuermans A, Schwebel D, Schwendicke F, Selvaraj S, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou S, Serban D, Serván-Mori E, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seyedi S, Seylani A, Shafie M, Shah J, Shah P, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahwan M, Shaikh A, Shaikh M, Shamim M, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Shannawaz M, Sharath M, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry R, Shavandi A, Shaw D, Shayan A, Shayan M, Shehabeldine A, Sheikh A, Sheikhi R, Shenoy M, Shetty P, Shi P, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shittu A, Shivarov V, Shokraneh F, Shool S, Shorofi S, Shuja K, Shuval K, Siddig E, Silva J, Silva L, Silva S, Simonetti B, Singal A, Singh A, Singh B, Singh J, Siraj S, Smith G, Socea B, Sokhan A, Solanki R, Solanki S, Soleimani H, Soliman S, Solomon Y, Song Y, Sorensen R, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy C, Srivastava V, Stanikzai M, Starodubov V, Starodubova A, Stefan S, Steiropoulos P, Stokes M, Subramaniyan V, Suleman M, Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Swain C, Sykes B, Szarpak L, Szeto M, Szócska M, Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh S, Tabatabai S, Tabb K, Tabish M, Soodejani M, Taiba J, Tajbakhsh A, Talaat I, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi J, Tan K, Tang H, DA Tareke D, Tariku M, Tat V, Tavangar S, Teimoori M, Temsah M, Temsah R, Teramoto M, Terefa D, Tesler R, Teye-Kwadjo E, Thakur R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan K, Thapar R, Tharwat S, Thayakaran R, Thomas N, Tichopad A, Ticoalu J, Tiruye T, Titova M, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone M, Traini E, Tran J, Tran N, Trihandini I, Tromans S, Truyen T, Tsatsakis A, Tsermpini E, Tumurkhuu M, Tyrovolas S, Uddin S, Udoakang A, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umakanthan S, Umeokonkwo C, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Usman J, Vacante M, Vahabi S, Vaithinathan A, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varavikova E, Varga O, Vart P, Varthya S, Vasankari T, Vellingiri B, Venugopal D, Verghese N, Verma M, Veroux M, Verras G, Vervoort D, Villafañe J, Vinayak M, Violante F, Vishwakarma M, Vladimirov S, Vlassov V, Vo B, Volovat S, Vos T, Vujcic I, Wafa H, Waheed Y, Wakwoya E, Wang C, Wang D, Wang F, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang Y, Ward P, Wassie E, Watson S, Weaver M, Weerakoon K, Weiss D, Wells K, Wen Y, Westerman R, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe D, Wickramasinghe N, Willeit P, Wondimagegene Y, Wu F, Xia J, Xiao H, Xu G, Xu S, Xu X, Yadollahpour A, Yaghoobpoor S, Yaghoobpour T, Yaghoubi S, Yahaya Z, Yang D, Yang L, Yano Y, Yaribeygi H, Ye P, Yesodharan R, Yesuf S, Yezli S, Yigezu A, Yip P, Yon D, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis M, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yu Y, Yuan C, Zafari N, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zamagni G, Zandi M, Zandieh G, Zangiabadian M, Zastrozhin M, Zhang H, Zhang M, Zhang Y, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu L, Zielińska M, Zou Z, Zyoud S, Murray C, Smith A, Vollset S. Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet 2024, 403: 2057-2099. PMID: 38521087, PMCID: PMC11122687, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6.Peer-Reviewed Reviews, Practice Guidelines, Standards, and Consensus StatementsAge-specific fertility ratesTotal fertility ratePro-natal policiesSustainable Development GoalsSub-Saharan AfricaFertilization rateChanging population age structureGBD super-regionsSpatiotemporal Gaussian process regressionFertility indicatorsMeasures of fertilityLowest-income countriesLow-income groupsSustainable Development Goal targetsReplacement levelFertility reboundCohort fertilityPopulation age structureGender equalityUN Sustainable Development GoalsHealth-care needsHigher-income countriesFertility estimatesLabor supplyGlobal fertilityGlobal age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Collaborators G, Schumacher A, Kyu H, Aali A, Abbafati C, Abbas J, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasi M, Abbasian M, ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abdurehman A, Abebe M, Abedi A, Abedi A, Abegaz T, Zuñiga R, Abhilash E, Abiodun O, Aboagye R, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Abreu L, Abrha W, Abrigo M, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abu-Rmeileh N, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Acuna J, Adair T, Addo I, Adebayo O, Adegboye O, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adepoju A, Adetunji C, Adeyeoluwa T, Adeyomoye O, Adha R, Adibi A, Adikusuma W, Adnani Q, Adra S, Afework A, Afolabi A, Afraz A, Afyouni S, Afzal S, Agasthi P, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah B, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad M, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade A, Ahmadzade M, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed L, Ahmed M, Ahmed S, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akalu G, Akara E, Akinosoglou K, Akkala S, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan S, Al Homsi A, Al Qadire M, Ala M, Aladelusi T, AL-Ahdal T, Alalalmeh S, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam Z, Al-amer R, Alanezi F, Alanzi T, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh M, Aldridge R, Alemi S, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Gheethi A, Alhabib K, Alhalaiqa F, Al-Hanawi M, Ali A, Ali A, Ali B, Ali H, Ali M, Ali R, Ali S, Ali Z, Samakkhah S, Alicandro G, Alif M, Aligol M, Alimi R, Aliyi A, Al-Jumaily A, Aljunid S, Almahmeed W, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri S, Almazan J, Al-Mekhlafi H, Almidani O, Alomari M, Alonso N, Alqahtani J, Alqutaibi A, Al-Sabah S, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq J, Altirkawi K, Alvi F, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi Y, Aly H, Alzoubi K, Amare A, Ameyaw E, Amhare A, Amin T, Amindarolzarbi A, Dehkordi J, Amiri S, Amu H, Amugsi D, Amzat J, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrade P, Andrei C, Andrei T, Angappan D, Anil A, Anjum A, Antony C, Antriyandarti E, Anuoluwa I, Anwar S, Anyasodor A, Appiah S, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Bahri R, Arab-Zozani M, Arafat M, Araújo A, Aravkin A, Aremu A, Ariffin H, Aripov T, Armocida B, Arooj M, Artamonov A, Artanti K, Arulappan J, Aruleba I, Aruleba R, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asgary S, Ashemo M, Ashraf M, Asika M, Athari S, Atout M, Atreya A, Attia S, Aujayeb A, Avan A, Awotidebe A, Quintanilla B, Ayanore M, Ayele G, Ayuso-Mateos J, Ayyoubzadeh S, Azadnajafabad S, Azhar G, Aziz S, Azzam A, Babashahi M, Babu A, Badar M, Badawi A, Badiye A, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bai J, Bai R, Baker J, Bakkannavar S, Bako A, Balakrishnan S, Balogun S, Baltatu O, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik B, Banik P, Bansal H, Barati S, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo S, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi H, Barr R, Barrero L, Basharat Z, Bashir A, Bashiru H, Baskaran P, Basnyat, Bassat Q, Basso J, Basu S, Batra K, Batra R, Baune B, Bayati M, Bayileyegn N, Beaney T, Bedi N, Begum T, Behboudi E, Behnoush A, Beiranvand M, Ramirez D, Belgaumi U, Bell M, Bello A, Bello M, Bello O, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bendak S, Bennett D, Bensenor I, Benzian H, Berezvai Z, Berman A, Bermudez A, Bettencourt P, Beyene H, Beyene K, Bhagat D, Bhagavathula A, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti G, Bhatti J, Bhatti M, Bhatti R, Bhutta Z, Bikbov B, Binmadi N, Bintoro B, Biondi A, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas R, Bitaraf S, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Boampong M, Bodolica V, Bodunrin A, Bolarinwa O, Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Basara B, Borodo S, Borschmann R, Carvajal A, Bouaoud S, Boudalia S, Boyko E, Bragazzi N, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Britton G, Browne A, Brunoni A, Bulamu N, Bulto L, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns R, Nagaraja S, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt Z, dos Santos F, Cai T, Calina D, Cámera L, Campos L, Campos-Nonato I, Cao C, Cardenas C, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero J, Carugno A, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia J, Castañeda-Orjuela C, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano A, Cattaruzza M, Caye A, Cederroth C, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cercy K, Cerin E, Cevik M, Chacón-Uscamaita P, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chan J, Chang C, Charalampous P, Charan J, Chattu V, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chavula M, Cheema H, Chen A, Chen H, Chen L, Chen M, Chen S, Cherbuin N, Chew D, Chi G, Chirinos-Caceres J, Chitheer A, Cho S, Cho W, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhary R, Chowdhury R, Chu D, Chukwu I, Chung E, Chung E, Chung S, Cini K, Clark C, Coberly K, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Conti S, Cortesi P, Costa V, Cousin E, Cowden R, Criqui M, Cruz-Martins N, Culbreth G, Cullen P, Cunningham M, da Silva e Silva D, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai Z, Dalal K, Dalli L, Damiani G, D'Amico E, Daneshvar S, Darwesh A, Das J, Das S, Dash N, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes C, Weaver N, Davletov K, De Leo D, Debele A, Degenhardt L, Dehbandi R, Deitesfeld L, Delgado-Enciso I, Delgado-Ortiz L, Demant D, Demessa B, Demetriades A, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Jarlais D, Desai H, Desai R, Deuba K, Devanbu V, Dey S, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, da Silva D, Diaz D, Dima A, Ding D, Dirac M, Dixit A, Dixit S, Chi T, Phuong T, do Prado C, Dodangeh M, Dokova K, Dolecek C, Dorsey E, dos Santos W, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Douiri A, Dowou R, Driscoll T, Dsouza H, Dube J, Dumith S, Dunachie S, Duncan B, Duraes A, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye O, Dutta S, Dzianach P, Dziedzic A, Ebenezer O, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Echieh C, Ed-Dra A, Edinur H, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi D, Efendi F, Eghdami S, Eikemo T, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekpor E, Ekundayo T, Arab R, Morsi D, Zaki M, Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elemam N, Elgar F, Elgendy I, ElGohary G, Elhabashy H, Elhadi M, Elmeligy O, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Zeydi A, Emamverdi M, Emeto T, Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Eshetie T, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Estep K, Etaee F, Eze U, Fabin N, Fadaka A, Fagbamigbe A, Fahimi S, Falzone L, Farinha C, Faris M, Kouhanjani M, Faro A, Farrokhpour H, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fauk N, Fazeli P, Feigin V, Fekadu G, Fereshtehnejad S, Feroze A, Ferrante D, Ferrara P, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flaxman A, Flor L, Florin B, Folayan M, Foley K, Fomenkov A, Force L, Fornari C, Foroutan B, Foschi M, Francis K, Franklin R, Freitas A, Friedman J, Friedman S, Fukumoto T, Fuller J, Gaal P, Gadanya M, Gaihre S, Gaipov A, Gakidou E, Galali Y, Galehdar N, Gallus S, Gan Q, Gandhi A, Ganesan B, Garg J, Gau S, Gautam P, Gautam R, Gazzelloni F, Gebregergis M, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam T, Gerema U, Getachew M, Getachew T, Gething P, Ghafourifard M, Ghahramani S, Ghailan K, Ghajar A, Ghanbarnia M, Ghasemi M, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy R, Ghimire S, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Vajargah P, Ghozali G, Ghozy S, Ghuge A, Gialluisi A, Gibson R, Gil A, Gill P, Gill T, Gillum R, Ginindza T, Girmay A, Glasbey J, Gnedovskaya E, Göbölös L, Goel A, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golestanfar A, Golinelli D, Gona P, Goudarzi H, Goudarzian A, Goyal A, Greenhalgh S, Grivna M, Guarducci G, Gubari M, Gudeta M, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gunawardane D, Gunturu S, Guo C, Gupta A, Gupta B, Gupta I, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta V, Gupta V, Gupta V, Gutiérrez R, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Hachinski V, Haddadi M, Haddadi R, Haep N, Ali A, Halboub E, Halim S, Hall B, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh R, Abdullah K, Hamidi S, Hamiduzzaman M, Hammoud A, Hanifi N, Hankey G, Hannan A, Haque N, Harapan H, Haro J, Hasaballah A, Hasan F, Hasan I, Hasan M, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Dehkordi A, Hassan A, Hassan A, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hassanipour S, Haubold J, Havmoeller R, Hay S, Hbid Y, Hebert J, Hegazi O, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Helfer B, Herteliu C, Hesami H, Hettiarachchi D, Heyi D, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoffman H, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain B, Hossain M, Hossain S, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh V, Hu C, Huang J, Huda N, Hugo F, Hultström M, Hussain J, Hussain S, Hussein N, Huy L, Huynh H, Hwang B, Ibitoye S, Idowu O, Ijo D, Ikuta K, Ilaghi M, Ilesanmi O, Ilic I, Ilic M, Immurana M, Inbaraj L, Iradukunda A, Iravanpour F, Iregbu K, Islam R, Islam M, Islam M, Islami F, Ismail N, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu C, Iwu-Jaja C, Iyer M, J L, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen K, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun A, Jakovljevic M, Yengejeh R, Jamshidi E, Jani C, Janko M, Jatau A, Jayapal S, Jayaram S, Jeganathan J, Jema A, Jemere D, Jeong W, Jha A, Jha R, Ji J, Jiang H, Jin Y, Jin Y, Johnson O, Jomehzadeh N, Jones D, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua C, Jozwiak J, Jürisson M, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir H, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kahe F, Kakodkar P, Kalani R, Kalankesh L, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamath A, Kamireddy A, Kanagasabai T, Kandel H, Kanmiki E, Kanmodi K, Kantar R, Kapoor N, Karajizadeh M, Matin B, Karanth S, Karaye I, Karim A, Karimi H, Karimi S, Behnagh A, Karkhah S, Karna A, Kashoo F, Kasraei H, Kassaw N, Kassebaum N, Kassel M, Katamreddy A, Katikireddi S, Katoto P, Kauppila J, Kaur N, Kaydi N, Kayibanda J, Kayode G, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kazeminia S, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keller C, Kempen J, Kerr J, Kesse-Guyot E, Keykhaei M, Khadembashiri M, Khadembashiri M, Khafaie M, Khajuria H, Khalafi M, Khalaji A, Khalid N, Khalil I, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan G, Khan I, Khan I, Khan M, Khan M, Khan T, suheb M, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khavandegar A, Kashani H, Kheirallah K, Khidri F, Khodadoust E, Khormali M, Khosrowjerdi M, Khubchandani J, Khusun H, Kifle Z, Kim G, Kim J, Kimokoti R, Kinzel K, Kiross G, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kiss J, Kivimäki M, Klu D, Knudsen A, Kolahi A, Kompani F, Koren G, Kosen S, Kostev K, Kotnis A, Koul P, Laxminarayana S, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krishan K, Krishna H, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamoorthy Y, Krohn K, Defo B, Kubeisy C, Bicer B, Kuddus A, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kujan O, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar H, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kumar S, Kumari M, Kurmanova A, Kurmi O, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kutluk T, Kuttikkattu A, Kyei E, Kyriopoulos I, La Vecchia C, Ladan M, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lahmar A, Lai D, Laksono T, Lal D, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lamnisos D, Lan T, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Lansingh V, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson A, Lasrado S, Latief K, Latif M, Latifinaibin K, Lauriola P, Le L, Le N, Le T, Le T, Lee M, Lee P, Lee S, Lee S, Lee W, Lee Y, Legesse S, Leigh J, Lenzi J, Leong E, Lerango T, Li M, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Z, Libra M, Ligade V, Likaka A, Lim L, Lin R, Lin S, Lioutas V, Listl S, Liu J, Liu S, Liu X, Livingstone K, Llanaj E, Lo C, Loreche A, Lorenzovici L, Lotfi M, Lotfizadeh M, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Ma J, Ma S, Feei Z, Mabrok M, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madsen C, Gómez J, Maghazachi A, Maharaj S, Maharjan P, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud M, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudi M, Makram O, Malagón-Rojas J, Rad E, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra A, Malhotra K, Malik A, Malik I, Malinga L, Malta D, Mamun A, Manla Y, Mannan F, Mansoori Y, Mansour A, Mansouri V, Mansournia M, Mantovani L, Marasini B, Marateb H, Maravilla J, Marconi A, Mardi P, Marino M, Marjani A, Arnedo C, Martinez-Guerra B, Martinez-Piedra R, Martins C, Martins-Melo F, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo R, Mate K, Matei C, Mathioudakis A, Maude R, Maugeri A, May E, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McAlinden C, McGrath J, McKee M, McKowen A, McLaughlin S, McPhail M, McPhail S, Mechili E, Mediratta R, Meena J, Mehari M, Mehlman M, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Nasab E, Mehrotra R, Mekonnen M, Mendoza W, Menezes R, Mengesha E, Mensah G, Mensah L, Mentis A, Meo A, Meretoja A, Meretoja T, Mersha A, Mesfin B, Mestrovic T, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Micha G, Michalek I, Miller T, Mindlin S, Minelli G, Minh L, Mini G, Minja N, Mirdamadi N, Mirghafourvand M, Mirica A, Mirinezhad S, Mirmosayyeb O, Mirutse M, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei M, Misgana T, Misra S, Mitchell P, Mithra P, Mittal C, Mittal M, Moazen B, Mohamed A, Mohamed J, Mohamed M, Mohamed N, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammad-pour S, Mohammadshahi M, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad A, Mokhtarzadehazar P, Momenzadeh K, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moni M, Montazeri F, Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moradpour F, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira R, Morovatdar N, Morrison S, Morze J, Heris R, Mosser J, Mossialos E, Mostafavi H, Mostofinejad A, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mousavi P, Mousavi S, Khaneghah A, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller U, Mughal F, Mukherjee S, Mukoro G, Mulita A, Mulita F, Muniyandi M, Munjal K, Musaigwa F, Musallam K, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Muthupandian S, Myung W, Nabhan A, Nafukho F, Nagarajan A, Naghavi M, Naghavi P, Naik G, Naik G, Naimzada M, Nair S, Nair T, Najmuldeen H, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nargus S, Nascimento B, Nascimento G, Naser A, Nasiri M, Natto Z, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak B, Nayak V, Nayyar A, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negash H, Negero A, Negoi I, Negoi R, Negru S, Nejadghaderi S, Nejjari C, Nematollahi M, Nena E, Nepal S, Nesbit O, Newton C, Ngunjiri J, Nguyen D, Nguyen P, Phuong The Nguyen, Nguyen T, Nguyen V, Nigatu Y, Nikolouzakis T, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor A, Nizam M, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Baghani A, Norrving B, Noubiap J, Novotney A, Nri-Ezedi C, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Oancea B, Obamiro K, Odetokun I, Ofakunrin A, Ogunsakin R, Oguta J, Oh I, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke S, Okekunle A, Okidi L, Okonji O, Okwute P, Olagunju A, Olaiya M, Olanipekun T, Olatubi M, Olivas-Martinez A, Oliveira G, Oliver S, Olorukooba A, Olufadewa I, Olusanya B, Olusanya J, Oluwafemi Y, Oluwatunase G, Omar H, Omer G, Ong S, Onwujekwe O, Onyedibe K, Opio J, Ordak M, Orellana E, Orisakwe O, Orish V, Orru H, Ortega-Altamirano D, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Ortiz-Prado E, Osuagwu U, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi M, Oyeyemi I, Oyeyemi O, Ozten Y, A M, Padubidri J, Varnosfaderani M, Pal P, Palicz T, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez R, Pana A, Panahi P, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal S, Pando-Robles V, Pangaribuan H, Panos G, Pantazopoulos I, Papadopoulou P, Pardhan S, Parikh R, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Pasupula D, Patel J, Patel S, Pathan A, Patil A, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati V, Paudel U, Pawar S, Toroudi H, Pease S, Peden A, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito V, Peprah E, Pereira G, Pereira J, Pereira M, Peres M, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Petcu I, Petermann-Rocha F, Pezzani R, Pham H, Phillips M, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott D, Pilgrim T, Pinheiro M, Piradov M, Plakkal N, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Pollner P, Poluru R, Pond C, Postma M, Poudel G, Poudel L, Pourali G, Pourtaheri N, Prada S, Pradhan P, Prajapati V, Prakash V, Prasad C, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates E, Purnobasuki H, Purohit B, Puvvula J, Qaisar R, Qasim N, Qattea I, Qian G, Quan N, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan V, Raee P, Shahraki H, Alavi S, Rafique I, Raggi A, Rahim F, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahman T, Rahmani A, Rahmani S, Rahnavard N, Rai P, Rajaa S, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajput P, Ram P, Ramadan H, Ramasamy S, Ramazanu S, Rana J, Rana K, Ranabhat C, Rancic N, Rani S, Ranjan S, Rao C, Rao I, Rao M, Rao S, Rasali D, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashid A, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rastogi P, Rasul A, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf D, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghian-Jahromi I, Reddy M, Redwan E, Rehman F, Reiner R, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Reyes L, Rezaee M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Riaz M, Ribeiro A, Ribeiro D, Rickard J, Rios-Blancas M, Robinson-Oden H, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez J, Roever L, Rohilla R, Rohloff P, Romadlon D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roshanzamir S, Rostamian M, Roy B, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Rumisha S, Rwegerera G, Rynkiewicz A, Manjula S, Chandan S, Sunnerhagen K, Saad A, Sabbatucci M, Saber K, Saber-Ayad M, Sacco S, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeedi M, Safi S, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Sharif-Askari N, Sahoo S, Sahraian M, Sajedi S, Sajid M, Sakshaug J, Salahi S, Salahi S, Salamati P, Salami A, 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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet 2024, 403: 1989-2056. PMID: 38484753, PMCID: PMC11126395, DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchAdult mortality ratesVital registrationST-GPRExcess mortality ratesModel life table systemSubnational locationsGlobal life expectancyLife expectancyEstimating adult mortalityStandard demographic methodsAge-specific mortality ratesLife tablesCohort-component modelChild mortality ratesSpatiotemporal Gaussian process regressionGenerate life tablesPopulation growthHistorical trendsPopulation health trendsRegistration dataAge-standardised mortality ratesDemographic estimatesPopulation health outcomesHIV epidemicCOVID-19 pandemic