2018
Risk ratios for contagious outcomes
Morozova O, Cohen T, Crawford FW. Risk ratios for contagious outcomes. Journal Of The Royal Society Interface 2018, 15: 20170696. PMID: 29343627, PMCID: PMC5805970, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2017.0696.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2017
Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications
Ho LST, Xu J, Crawford FW, Minin VN, Suchard MA. Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications. Journal Of Mathematical Biology 2017, 76: 911-944. PMID: 28741177, PMCID: PMC5783825, DOI: 10.1007/s00285-017-1160-3.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAlgorithmsAnimalsBayes TheoremCommunicable DiseasesComputational BiologyComputer SimulationEnglandEpidemicsHistory, 17th CenturyHost-Parasite InteractionsHumansLikelihood FunctionsMarkov ChainsMathematical ConceptsModels, BiologicalMonte Carlo MethodPlagueProbabilityStochastic ProcessesConceptsBirth-death processTransition probabilitiesFinite-time transition probabilitiesSIR modelMonte Carlo approximationJoint posterior distributionLikelihood-based inferenceApproximate Bayesian computationStatistical inferenceMatrix exponentiationPosterior distributionProcess approximationBivariate extensionBayesian computationFraction representationLaplace transformCorrelation structureUnivariate populationsRemoved (SIR) modelSmall systemsBivariate processEfficient algorithmApproximationDirect inferenceFast method
2012
Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics
Pybus OG, Suchard MA, Lemey P, Bernardin FJ, Rambaut A, Crawford FW, Gray RR, Arinaminpathy N, Stramer SL, Busch MP, Delwart EL. Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America 2012, 109: 15066-15071. PMID: 22927414, PMCID: PMC3443149, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1206598109.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsRobust nonparametric statisticsPathogen genome sequencesBasic reproductive numberMolecular evolutionWest Nile virusNatural populationsPhylogenetic historySpatial variablesLong-range movementsGenome sequenceSpatial invasionSpatial ecologyGenetic dataNile virusReproductive numberDispersalNonparametric statisticsSpatial epidemiologySpatial dynamicsNorth AmericaPrevious modelsSpatial parametersPhylogeneticsSpatial autocorrelationEcology