2015
Age‐Period‐Cohort approaches to back‐calculation of cancer incidence rate
Oh C, Holford TR. Age‐Period‐Cohort approaches to back‐calculation of cancer incidence rate. Statistics In Medicine 2015, 34: 1953-1964. PMID: 25715831, PMCID: PMC4980760, DOI: 10.1002/sim.6464.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCancer incidence ratesEstimates of incidenceHealth care planningCancer deathLung cancerCancer prevalenceCancer incidenceIncidence rateHealthy subjectsCare planningSurvival informationMortality statisticsCancerIncidence casesIncidenceAge periodDeathSubjectsCompartment modelCohortMortalityPrevalence
2014
Patterns of Birth Cohort–Specific Smoking Histories, 1965–2009
Holford TR, Levy DT, McKay LA, Clarke L, Racine B, Meza R, Land S, Jeon J, Feuer EJ. Patterns of Birth Cohort–Specific Smoking Histories, 1965–2009. American Journal Of Preventive Medicine 2014, 46: e31-e37. PMID: 24439359, PMCID: PMC3951759, DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2013.10.022.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleModels, StatisticalPrevalenceSmokingSmoking CessationUnited StatesConceptsSmoking historyBirth cohortU.S. National Health Interview SurveyNational Health Interview SurveySmoking-related mortalityHealth Interview SurveyTobacco control interventionsCurrent smoking behaviorAge-specific distributionSmoking statusSmoking patternsSmoking intensitySurvival differencesSmoking behaviorCohortControl interventionsDifferent birth cohortsDate of surveyInterview SurveyIntervention strategiesCohort modelSmokersAgePrevalenceSlow declineTobacco Control and the Reduction in Smoking-Related Premature Deaths in the United States, 1964-2012
Holford TR, Meza R, Warner KE, Meernik C, Jeon J, Moolgavkar SH, Levy DT. Tobacco Control and the Reduction in Smoking-Related Premature Deaths in the United States, 1964-2012. JAMA 2014, 311: 164-171. PMID: 24399555, PMCID: PMC4056770, DOI: 10.1001/jama.2013.285112.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsEffect of smokingAge 40 yearsSmoking-related mortalityYears of lifeTobacco controlPremature deathSmoking historySmoking-related premature deathsNational Health Interview SurveyCigarette smoking exposureSmoking-related deathsCigarette smoking historyFirst Surgeon General's reportLife expectancyMortality rate ratiosNational mortality ratesUS adult populationHealth Interview SurveyOverall health outcomesSurgeon General's ReportPublic health achievementsSmoking exposurePrimary outcomeSmoking statusCigarette smoking
2012
Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model
Holford TR, Ebisu K, McKay L, Oh C, Zheng T. Chapter 12: Yale Lung Cancer Model. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s151-s165. PMID: 22882886, PMCID: PMC3662537, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01754.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer deathsCarcinogenesis modelCancer deathLung cancer incidenceLung cancer modelTwo-stage clonal expansion modelCigarette smokingCancer incidenceCancer modelTobacco controlClonal expansion modelPopulation ratesCohort modelSmokingDeathHarmful effectsPopulation dataTemporal trendsMortalityObserved numberIncidenceControlChapter 14: Comparing the Adequacy of Carcinogenesis Models in Estimating U.S. Population Rates for Lung Cancer Mortality
Holford TR, Levy DT. Chapter 14: Comparing the Adequacy of Carcinogenesis Models in Estimating U.S. Population Rates for Lung Cancer Mortality. Risk Analysis 2012, 32: s179-s189. PMID: 22882888, PMCID: PMC3478769, DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01734.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLung cancer mortalityCancer mortalityCarcinogenesis modelLung cancer mortality ratesU.S. population ratesEffect of smokingCancer Prevention StudyCancer mortality ratesPopulation ratesTwo-stage clonal expansion modelEffect of ageSmoking trendsLung cancerPrevention StudyEstimates of riskMortality rateClonal expansionClonal expansion modelCohort modelSmokingIndividual cohortsCohortMortalityU.S. malesTemporal trends
2001
Restricted activity among community-living older persons: incidence, precipitants, and health care utilization.
Gill T, Desai M, Gahbauer E, Holford T, Williams C. Restricted activity among community-living older persons: incidence, precipitants, and health care utilization. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2001, 135: 313-21. PMID: 11529694, DOI: 10.7326/0003-4819-135-5-200109040-00007.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCommunity-living older personsHealth care utilizationCare utilizationRestricted activityOlder personsProspective cohort studyEmergency department visitsMonthly telephone interviewsPhysician office visitsLarge health planYears of ageHealth-related problemsCohort studyDepartment visitsHospital admissionOffice visitsFunctional statusMedical attentionHigh riskHealth plansTelephone interviewsMonthsConsecutive monthsEpisodesDisability
1998
Seizures with Fever After Unprovoked Seizures: An Analysis in Children Followed from the Time of a First Febrile Seizure
Berg A, Darefsky A, Holford T, Shinnar S. Seizures with Fever After Unprovoked Seizures: An Analysis in Children Followed from the Time of a First Febrile Seizure. Epilepsia 1998, 39: 77-80. PMID: 9578016, DOI: 10.1111/j.1528-1157.1998.tb01277.x.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsFirst febrile seizureFebrile seizuresUnprovoked seizuresFurther seizuresFirst unprovoked seizureRecurrent febrile seizuresCox regression modelBenign febrile seizuresInfluence recurrenceTime-dependent covariatesProspective cohortSecond seizureTreatment decisionsFeverSeizuresSubstantial riskRate ratioYoung childrenChildrenOnsetRegression modelsSmall proportionRiskPredictorsRecurrence
1997
Are cancers of the salivary gland increasing? Experience from Connecticut, USA.
Zheng T, Holford T, Chen Y, Ward B, Liu W, Flannery J, Boyle P. Are cancers of the salivary gland increasing? Experience from Connecticut, USA. International Journal Of Epidemiology 1997, 26: 264-271. PMID: 9169160, DOI: 10.1093/ije/26.2.264.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSalivary glandsRelative riskBirth cohortRare squamous cell carcinomaEpstein-Barr virus infectionConnecticut Tumor Registry dataTime trendsComparable relative riskSquamous cell carcinomaTumor registry dataAge group 40Salivary gland cancerYears of ageOlder age groupsRecent birth cohortsObserved time trendsPrior cancerLower gumCell carcinomaGland cancerIncidence rateRisk factorsUnivariate analysisCancer sitesRegistry data
1996
Time trend and age‐period‐cohort effect on incidence of thyroid cancer in Connecticut, 1935–1992
Zheng T, Holford T, Chen Y, Z. J, Flannery J, Liu W, Russi M, Boyle P. Time trend and age‐period‐cohort effect on incidence of thyroid cancer in Connecticut, 1935–1992. International Journal Of Cancer 1996, 67: 504-509. PMID: 8759608, DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0215(19960807)67:4<504::aid-ijc7>3.0.co;2-w.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsThyroid cancerChildhood conditionsOverall age-adjusted incidence rateStrong birth cohort effectAge-adjusted incidence ratesRadiation treatmentBirth cohort effectsBirth cohort analysisTime trendsCohort effectsObserved time trendsIncidence ratePapillary carcinomaCohort analysisCancerCohortIncidenceNeckMalesFemalesUnited StatesRecent studiesTreatmentCurrent studyCarcinomaThe Continuing Increase in Adenocarcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A Birth Cohort Phenomenon
ZHENG T, HOLFORD T, MA Z, CHEN Y, LIU W, WARD B, BOYLE P. The Continuing Increase in Adenocarcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A Birth Cohort Phenomenon. International Journal Of Epidemiology 1996, 25: 252-258. PMID: 9119549, DOI: 10.1093/ije/25.2.252.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsUterine cervixInvasive adenocarcinomaBirth cohortStrong birth cohort effectTime trendsBirth-cohort patternEnd Results (SEER) dataBirth-cohort phenomenonAnalytical epidemiological studiesBirth cohort effectsRecent birth cohortsObserved time trendsYoung white womenRisk factorsEpidemiological studiesCervixAdenocarcinomaCohort patternsCohort phenomenonCohortWhite womenCohort modelCohort effectsObserved increaseResult dataContinuing increase in incidence of germ‐cell testis cancer in young adults: Experience from Connecticut, USA, 1935–1992
Zheng T, Holford T, Ma Z, Ward B, Flannery J, Boyle P. Continuing increase in incidence of germ‐cell testis cancer in young adults: Experience from Connecticut, USA, 1935–1992. International Journal Of Cancer 1996, 65: 723-729. PMID: 8631581, DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0215(19960315)65:6<723::aid-ijc2>3.0.co;2-0.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdolescentAdultAge FactorsAgedCohort StudiesConnecticutGerminomaHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedSeminomaTesticular NeoplasmsConceptsGerm cell testis cancerTestis cancerHistologic typeEpidemiologic studiesOverall age-adjusted incidence rateStrong birth cohort effectAge-adjusted incidence ratesEarly lifetime exposuresAnalytical epidemiologic studiesDescriptive epidemiologic studyAge group 20Birth cohort effectsObserved incidence patternsIncidence rateRisk factorsGroup 20Cancer registrationLifetime exposureIncidence patternsLarger sample sizeSeminomaCancerCohort modelingYoung adultsCohort
1994
Time trend and the age‐period‐cohort effect on the incidence of histologic types of lung cancer in connecticut, 1960‐1989
Zheng T, Holford T, Boyle P, Chen Y, Ward B, Flannery J, Mayne S. Time trend and the age‐period‐cohort effect on the incidence of histologic types of lung cancer in connecticut, 1960‐1989. Cancer 1994, 74: 1556-1567. PMID: 8062189, DOI: 10.1002/1097-0142(19940901)74:5<1556::aid-cncr2820740511>3.0.co;2-0.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdenocarcinomaAdenocarcinoma, Bronchiolo-AlveolarAdultAge FactorsAgedAged, 80 and overCarcinomaCarcinoma, Small CellCarcinoma, Squamous CellCohort EffectCohort StudiesConnecticutFemaleHumansIncidenceLung NeoplasmsMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalRegistriesSex FactorsSmokingTime FactorsConceptsAge-adjusted incidence ratesMajor histologic typesOverall age-adjusted incidence rateAge-specific incidence ratesHistologic typeLung cancer incidenceLung cancerIncidence rateBirth cohortRecent birth cohortsIncidence patternsObserved time trendsCell carcinomaCancer incidenceTime trendsConnecticut Tumor RegistryIncidence of adenocarcinomaSmall cell carcinomaSquamous cell carcinomaLung cancer casesRecent epidemiologic studiesDifferent histologic typesDifferent incidence patternsObserved incidence patternsTumor RegistryAge‐period‐cohort modelling of large‐bowel‐cancer incidence by anatomic sub‐site and sex in Denmark
Dubrow R, Johansen C, Skov T, Holford T. Age‐period‐cohort modelling of large‐bowel‐cancer incidence by anatomic sub‐site and sex in Denmark. International Journal Of Cancer 1994, 58: 324-329. PMID: 8050812, DOI: 10.1002/ijc.2910580303.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMalignant melanoma incidence in Connecticut (United States): time trends and age-period-cohort modeling by anatomic site
Chen Y, Zheng T, Holford T, Berwick M, Dubrow R. Malignant melanoma incidence in Connecticut (United States): time trends and age-period-cohort modeling by anatomic site. Cancer Causes & Control 1994, 5: 341-350. PMID: 8080946, DOI: 10.1007/bf01804985.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsCutaneous malignant melanomaAnatomic sitesUpper limbPopulation-based Connecticut Tumor RegistryCohort patternsConnecticut Tumor RegistryMale-female ratioMalignant melanoma incidenceTime trendsCMM incidenceNeck melanomaTumor RegistryIncident casesMalignant melanomaMelanoma incidenceEtiologic distinctionsCarcinogenic exposuresLower limbsLargest absolute increaseMelanomaCohort modelingAbsolute increaseIncidenceLimbLargest relative increaseTime trends in the incidence of renal carcinoma: Analysis of connecticut tumor registry data, 1935‐1989
Katz D, Zheng T, Holford T, Flannery J. Time trends in the incidence of renal carcinoma: Analysis of connecticut tumor registry data, 1935‐1989. International Journal Of Cancer 1994, 58: 57-63. PMID: 8014016, DOI: 10.1002/ijc.2910580111.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTransitional cell carcinomaConnecticut Tumor RegistryCell carcinomaIncidence rateRenal cancerPopulation-based cancer registriesIncidence of adenocarcinomaTime trendsCohort effectsRegression modellingEffect of ageTumor RegistryCancer RegistryIncident casesUrinary tractRenal carcinomaBirth cohortCarcinomaAdenocarcinomaRate of riseIncidenceNegative cohort effectRegistryCancerMales
1993
The time trend and age—period—cohort effects on incidence of adenocarcinoma of the stomach in connecticut from 1955–1989
Zheng T, Mayne S, Holford T, Boyle P, Liu W, Chen Y, Mador M, Flannery J. The time trend and age—period—cohort effects on incidence of adenocarcinoma of the stomach in connecticut from 1955–1989. Cancer 1993, 72: 330-340. PMID: 8319166, DOI: 10.1002/1097-0142(19930715)72:2<330::aid-cncr2820720205>3.0.co;2-l.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDistal stomachGastric cardiaObserved time trendsRisk factorsIncidence rateBirth cohortAge-adjusted incidence ratesTime trendsDifferent epidemiologic featuresFuture analytic studiesIncrease of adenocarcinomaConnecticut Tumor RegistryIncidence of adenocarcinomaRisk of adenocarcinomaBirth-cohort phenomenonRegression modelingUnited States populationUnspecified subsiteRetinol intakeHiatal herniaTumor RegistryEpidemiologic featuresAlcohol intakeIncident casesEtiologic factorsAge‐period‐cohort modelling of large‐bowel‐cancer incidence by anatomic sub‐site and sex in connecticut
Dubrow R, Bernstein J, Holford T. Age‐period‐cohort modelling of large‐bowel‐cancer incidence by anatomic sub‐site and sex in connecticut. International Journal Of Cancer 1993, 53: 907-913. PMID: 8473049, DOI: 10.1002/ijc.2910530607.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLeft colonCohort patternsTransverse colonLarge bowelCancer incidenceEtiologic distinctionsConnecticut Tumor RegistryTumor RegistrySigmoid colonCancer casesCohort modellingBirth cohortConnecticut residentsColonRectumCohort modelSexBowelIncidenceDiagnosisMalesFemalesCommon patternRegistryCohort
1992
Analysing the temporal effects of age, period and cohort
Holford T. Analysing the temporal effects of age, period and cohort. Statistical Methods In Medical Research 1992, 1: 317-337. PMID: 1341663, DOI: 10.1177/096228029200100306.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchRisk Factors Predicting the Incidence of Second Primary Breast Cancer among Women Diagnosed with a First Primary Breast Cancer*
Bernstein J, Thompson W, Risch N, Holford T. Risk Factors Predicting the Incidence of Second Primary Breast Cancer among Women Diagnosed with a First Primary Breast Cancer*. American Journal Of Epidemiology 1992, 136: 925-936. PMID: 1456269, DOI: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116565.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsFirst primary breast cancerPrimary breast cancerSecond primary breast cancerContralateral breast cancerBreast cancerRisk factorsInitial tumorIncidence rateFirst primaryFirst prospective cohort studyAge-specific incidence ratesDirect patient interviewProspective cohort studySteroid Hormone StudySecond breast cancerEnd Results ProgramBenign breast biopsyProportional hazards modelSpecific risk factorsCohort studyTumor characteristicsLobular carcinomaResults ProgramPatient interviewsTreatment modalitiesThe Genetic Epidemiology of Second Primary Breast Cancer*
Bernstein J, Thompson W, Risch N, Holford T. The Genetic Epidemiology of Second Primary Breast Cancer*. American Journal Of Epidemiology 1992, 136: 937-948. PMID: 1456270, DOI: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116566.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSecond primary breast cancerPrimary breast cancerContralateral breast cancerFirst primary breast cancerFirst-degree relativesBreast cancerFamily historyOvarian cancerMulti-center population-based case-control studyPopulation-based case-control studyAge-adjusted rate ratioSteroid Hormone StudyBilateral breast cancerEnd Results ProgramRate ratioCase-control studyCorresponding rate ratiosContralateral breastEndometrial cancerProspective studyResults ProgramSecond primaryCohort membersHigh riskHormone Study