2024
Projected health and economic effects of a pan-tuberculosis treatment regimen: a modelling study
Ryckman T, McQuaid C, Cohen T, Menzies N, Kendall E. Projected health and economic effects of a pan-tuberculosis treatment regimen: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health 2024, 12: e1629-e1637. PMID: 39159654, PMCID: PMC11413512, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(24)00284-5.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchStandard of careInitial treatment attemptNewly diagnosed tuberculosis patientsTuberculosis burdenTreatment attemptDrug susceptibility testingProportion of patientsMechanisms of benefitNon-drug costsRifampicin susceptibilityTreatment discontinuationIncremental curingSusceptibility testingDrug susceptibilityRegimen developmentTreatment regimenTuberculosis patientsRegimenRegimensTuberculosis treatmentInjection regimensTuberculosis diagnosisRegimen assignmentsNon-adherenceSimulated cohortThe long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study
Menzies N, Swartwood N, Cohen T, Marks S, Maloney S, Chappelle C, Miller J, Asay G, Date A, Horsburgh C, Salomon J. The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Public Health 2024, 9: e573-e582. PMID: 39095134, PMCID: PMC11344642, DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00150-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis servicesTuberculosis incidenceCenters for Disease Control and PreventionUS Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionControl and PreventionCombination of interventionsTuberculosis eliminationCountry of originIntervention scenariosInternational interventionLow tuberculosis incidenceService improvementCurrent serviceTuberculosis ProgrammeTuberculosis deathsEconomic outcomesInterventionEpidemiological dataTuberculosis burdenLong-term effectsTotal populationSimulate healthTuberculosis trendsServices
2022
A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities
Chitwood M, Alves L, Bartholomay P, Couto R, Sanchez M, Castro M, Cohen T, Menzies N. A spatial-mechanistic model to estimate subnational tuberculosis burden with routinely collected data: An application in Brazilian municipalities. PLOS Global Public Health 2022, 2: e0000725. PMID: 36962578, PMCID: PMC10021638, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000725.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPerson/yearTB incidenceCase notificationBurden estimatesIncident TB casesTB case notificationTB control strategiesDisease burden estimatesIncident TBUntreated TBTB casesTuberculosis burdenDisease burdenIncidence rateCase detectionRoutine dataDeath recordsMortality dataIncidenceSubnational estimatesDisease control resourcesBurdenHigh needTBFraction of individuals
2021
Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis
Yerramsetti S, Cohen T, Atun R, Menzies NA. Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013–19: a mathematical modelling analysis. The Lancet Global Health 2021, 10: e207-e215. PMID: 34895517, PMCID: PMC8800006, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00462-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPediatric tuberculosisTuberculosis incidenceStudy periodIncident tuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidence rateReporting systemHigh-burden settingsGlobal tuberculosis burdenTuberculosis natural historyPediatric incidenceInfectious exposurePrompt diagnosisSubstantial morbidityTuberculosis burdenTuberculosis casesIncidence rateRisk factorsCase detectionGlobal incidenceProbability of infectionInfected individualsAge groupsNatural historyTuberculosisIncidenceProtective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns
Havumaki J, Cohen T, Zhai C, Miller JC, Guikema SD, Eisenberg MC, Zelner J. Protective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns. PLOS Computational Biology 2021, 17: e1008713. PMID: 33556077, PMCID: PMC7895355, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008713.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTuberculosis burdenCommunity transmissionGlobal tuberculosis control targetsSustained community transmissionHigh-incidence settingsHigh disease burdenTuberculosis contact tracingLow tuberculosis burdenHousehold contactsHousehold transmissionDisease burdenVaried incidenceContact patternsIncidence levelsProtective impactEpidemiological settingsInfected individualsNew casesProtective benefitsContact tracingCommunity contactsSuch interventionsInterventionBurdenProactive case
2016
Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models
Houben RMGJ, Menzies NA, Sumner T, Huynh GH, Arinaminpathy N, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Lin HH, Wu CY, Mandal S, Pandey S, Suen SC, Bendavid E, Azman AS, Dowdy DW, Bacaër N, Rhines AS, Feldman MW, Handel A, Whalen CC, Chang ST, Wagner BG, Eckhoff PA, Trauer JM, Denholm JT, McBryde ES, Cohen T, Salomon JA, Pretorius C, Lalli M, Eaton JW, Boccia D, Hosseini M, Gomez GB, Sahu S, Daniels C, Ditiu L, Chin DP, Wang L, Chadha VK, Rade K, Dewan P, Hippner P, Charalambous S, Grant AD, Churchyard G, Pillay Y, Mametja LD, Kimerling ME, Vassall A, White RG. Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models. The Lancet Global Health 2016, 4: e806-e815. PMID: 27720688, PMCID: PMC6375908, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(16)30199-1.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsEnd TB Strategy targetsPreventive therapyTuberculosis incidenceContinuous isoniazid preventive therapyGlobal tuberculosis targetsIsoniazid preventive therapySymptoms of tuberculosisActive case findingNational Tuberculosis ProgrammeEnd TB StrategyHigh-burden countriesAntiretroviral therapyLatent tuberculosisStrategy targetsTuberculosis burdenTuberculosis careTuberculosis ProgrammeTB StrategyTuberculosis transmissionHealth centersAdditional interventionsTuberculosis interventionsCase findingTuberculosis epidemiologyEpidemiological impact
2011
Diabetes mellitus and tuberculosis in countries with high tuberculosis burdens: individual risks and social determinants
Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Jeon CY, Cohen T, Murray MB. Diabetes mellitus and tuberculosis in countries with high tuberculosis burdens: individual risks and social determinants. International Journal Of Epidemiology 2011, 40: 417-428. PMID: 21252210, PMCID: PMC3621385, DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyq238.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsDiabetes prevalenceTB prevalenceSocial determinantsHigh TB burdenBody mass indexHigh tuberculosis burdenType 2 diabetesIndividual-level risk factorsWorld Health SurveyTB burdenDiabetes mellitusPrevalent tuberculosisTuberculosis burdenMass indexIndividual-level riskBody of evidenceRisk factorsHealth SurveyDiabetesTuberculosisPrevalenceLow-income countriesHealth policyIndividual riskPopulation health