2022
Evaluating spatially adaptive guidelines for the treatment of gonorrhea to reduce the incidence of gonococcal infection and increase the effective lifespan of antibiotics
Yaesoubi R, Cohen T, Hsu K, Gift TL, St. Cyr SB, Salomon JA, Grad YH. Evaluating spatially adaptive guidelines for the treatment of gonorrhea to reduce the incidence of gonococcal infection and increase the effective lifespan of antibiotics. PLOS Computational Biology 2022, 18: e1009842. PMID: 35139073, PMCID: PMC8863219, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009842.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsIncidence of gonorrhoeaTreatment guidelinesResistance prevalenceGonorrhea casesTreatment of gonorrheaNational surveillance systemPrevalence of resistanceTransmission dynamic modelGonococcal infectionGonorrhea treatmentMSM populationAntibiotic susceptibilityGonorrheaStandardized guidelinesSurveillance dataPrevalenceIncidenceAntibioticsPotential strategySurveillance systemAbsence of pointsGuidelinesCurrent strategiesEffective lifespanMen
2021
The Health and Economic Benefits of Tests That Predict Future Progression to Tuberculosis Disease
Menzies NA, Shrestha S, Parriott A, Marks SM, Hill AN, Dowdy DW, Shete PB, Cohen T, Salomon JA. The Health and Economic Benefits of Tests That Predict Future Progression to Tuberculosis Disease. Epidemiology 2021, 33: 75-83. PMID: 34669631, PMCID: PMC8633045, DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001418.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsPositive predictive valueHigh positive predictive valueFuture tuberculosisLatent tuberculosis infection treatmentIncremental costHigher treatment initiationCompletion of treatmentInterferon-gamma releaseQuality-adjusted life yearsTransmission dynamic modelLTBI testingTreatment initiationTreatment acceptanceTuberculosis diseasePrevention servicesPredictive valueTreatment servicesLife yearsTuberculosisInfection treatmentSocietal perspectiveIGRATreatment volumeHealth improvementFuture progressionThe positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study
Yang C, Kang J, Lu L, Guo X, Shen X, Cohen T, Menzies NA. The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study. BMC Medicine 2021, 19: 95. PMID: 33874940, PMCID: PMC8055441, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-01968-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB casesTB incidenceNew TB casesTB control strategiesEpidemiology of tuberculosisMeaningful health benefitsChinese urban populationMolecular epidemiologic studiesTransmission dynamic modelSongjiang DistrictRecent infectionTB interventionsTB transmissionTB notificationsEpidemiological featuresPreventive treatmentActive screeningEpidemiologic studiesLatent infectionTB policyDemographic dataIndirect protectionTuberculosisEpidemiological driversLocal transmission
2020
Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States
Menzies NA, Swartwood N, Testa C, Malyuta Y, Hill AN, Marks SM, Cohen T, Salomon JA. Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States. Epidemiology 2020, 32: 70-78. PMID: 33009253, PMCID: PMC7707158, DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001271.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLatent TB infectionMycobacterium tuberculosis infectionTB infectionTuberculosis infectionTB natural historyRisk of tuberculosisMost TB casesRate of progressionYounger age groupsLower future riskTransmission dynamic modelTB casesTB riskPrevalent infectionProgression riskLifetime riskRisk factorsIncidence trendsClinical diseaseCumulative riskGeneral populationAverage ageNew infectionsUS populationAge groups
2018
Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemic parameter estimates and predictions using stochastic compartmental models
Zimmer C, Leuba SI, Cohen T, Yaesoubi R. Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemic parameter estimates and predictions using stochastic compartmental models. Statistical Methods In Medical Research 2018, 28: 3591-3608. PMID: 30428780, PMCID: PMC6517086, DOI: 10.1177/0962280218805780.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsFilter degeneracyParameter estimatesPosterior distributionStochastic transmission-dynamic modelParameter posterior distributionsEpidemic compartmental modelKey epidemic parametersStochastic compartmental modelStochastic systemsPrediction intervalsCompartmental modelMultiple shootingArt calibration methodsEpidemic parametersDegeneracyDynamic modelInfluenza modelMSS approachLong-term predictionTransmission dynamic modelSimulation experimentsCalibration methodUncertaintyEstimatesCompetitive performanceProspects for Tuberculosis Elimination in the United States: Results of a Transmission Dynamic Model
Menzies NA, Cohen T, Hill AN, Yaesoubi R, Galer K, Wolf E, Marks SM, Salomon JA. Prospects for Tuberculosis Elimination in the United States: Results of a Transmission Dynamic Model. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2018, 187: 2011-2020. PMID: 29762657, PMCID: PMC6119121, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy094.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTB preventionTB eliminationLatent TB infection (LTBI) screeningTB case detectionHigh-risk populationImportant health benefitsTransmission dynamic modelIncident TBActive TBTuberculosis eliminationInfection testingTB controlTB incidenceEpidemiologic evidenceTB transmissionInfection screeningCase detectionTuberculosis trendsUS populationRisk determinantsHealth benefitsTreatment qualityUnited StatesTreatment activitiesTreatmentTuberculosis control interventions targeted to previously treated people in a high-incidence setting: a modelling study
Marx FM, Yaesoubi R, Menzies NA, Salomon JA, Bilinski A, Beyers N, Cohen T. Tuberculosis control interventions targeted to previously treated people in a high-incidence setting: a modelling study. The Lancet Global Health 2018, 6: e426-e435. PMID: 29472018, PMCID: PMC5849574, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(18)30022-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh-incidence settingsIsoniazid preventive therapyPreventive therapyTuberculosis treatmentActive casesHIV prevalenceTuberculosis controlControl interventionsIncident tuberculosis casesPrevious tuberculosis treatmentTuberculosis control interventionsTB case notificationHigh-risk groupTransmission dynamic modelTuberculosis deathsHigh tuberculosisRecurrent diseasePrevalent tuberculosisTuberculosis casesTuberculosis incidenceCase notificationTreatment outcomesTuberculosis morbidityTuberculosis epidemicAdditional interventions
2016
Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining tuberculosis/HIV coepidemic
Kunkel A, Crawford FW, Shepherd J, Cohen T. Benefits of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy may outweigh resistance risks in a declining tuberculosis/HIV coepidemic. AIDS 2016, 30: 2715-2723. PMID: 27782966, PMCID: PMC5089846, DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000001235.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsContinuous isoniazid preventive therapyIsoniazid preventive therapyIsoniazid-resistant tuberculosisTB epidemicPreventive therapyEffective TB treatmentLatent TB infectionTB drug resistanceTransmission dynamic modelTB infectionMortality benefitTB treatmentHIV controlHIV incidenceTB incidenceTB transmissionCase findingDrug resistanceIncidenceTuberculosisInitial benefitPLHIVHIVTherapyEpidemic