2021
One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut
Morozova O, Li ZR, Crawford FW. One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut. Scientific Reports 2021, 11: 20271. PMID: 34642405, PMCID: PMC8511264, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-99590-5.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsConnecticutCOVID-19ForecastingHumansModels, StatisticalPandemicsPublic Health SurveillanceConceptsCOVID-19 disease progressionSARS-CoV-2 transmissionCase detection ratioPublic health surveillancePublic health policymakersInfection hospitalizationsCumulative incidenceEpidemiologic featuresClinical progressionCOVID-19 transmissionCOVID-19 projectionsDisease progressionFatality ratioHospital dataEffective reproduction numberHospitalizationHealth surveillanceTransmission riskSEIR-type modelHealth policymakersCOVID-19 epidemicEpidemic trajectoriesDisease transmissionInfectionProgression
2018
Dynamics of the HIV outbreak and response in Scott County, IN, USA, 2011–15: a modelling study
Gonsalves GS, Crawford FW. Dynamics of the HIV outbreak and response in Scott County, IN, USA, 2011–15: a modelling study. The Lancet HIV 2018, 5: e569-e577. PMID: 30220531, PMCID: PMC6192548, DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(18)30176-0.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsDisease OutbreaksEpidemiological MonitoringHIV InfectionsHumansIncidenceIndianaModels, StatisticalPublic HealthTime FactorsConceptsUndiagnosed HIV infectionHIV infectionUS National InstitutesHIV outbreakPublic health responseCase-finding rateNumber of infectionsNational InstituteHealth responseCumulative HIV incidenceHIV transmission ratesEarly public health responsesHarm reduction interventionsScott CountyPublic health emergencyHIV testingHIV incidenceHIV servicesUS CentersNascent epidemicsPrevention servicesInfectionDisease controlSame interventionDrug abuse
2017
The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-regression approach
Antillón M, Warren JL, Crawford FW, Weinberger DM, Kürüm E, Pak GD, Marks F, Pitzer VE. The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-regression approach. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2017, 11: e0005376. PMID: 28241011, PMCID: PMC5344533, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005376.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2015
Markov counting models for correlated binary responses
Crawford FW, Zelterman D. Markov counting models for correlated binary responses. Biostatistics 2015, 16: 427-440. PMID: 25792624, PMCID: PMC5963474, DOI: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxv006.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsExchangeable Bernoulli random variablesBernoulli random variablesCorrelated binary responsesMaximum likelihood estimatesInterpretable parameterizationsRandom variablesLikelihood estimatesCounting processDifferent cluster sizesBinary responsesCorrelated outcomesNatural wayCluster sizeBinary dataImproved fitPrevious modelsNew model