2023
Geographic and temporal trends in fentanyl-detected deaths in Connecticut, 2009–2019
Lu H, Crawford F, Gonsalves G, Grau L. Geographic and temporal trends in fentanyl-detected deaths in Connecticut, 2009–2019. Annals Of Epidemiology 2023, 79: 32-38. PMID: 36669599, PMCID: PMC10163838, DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2023.01.009.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2022
SARS-CoV-2 Attack Rate and Population Immunity in Southern New England, March 2020 to May 2021
Tran TN, Wikle NB, Yang F, Inam H, Leighow S, Gentilesco B, Chan P, Albert E, Strong ER, Pritchard JR, Hanage WP, Hanks EM, Crawford FW, Boni MF. SARS-CoV-2 Attack Rate and Population Immunity in Southern New England, March 2020 to May 2021. JAMA Network Open 2022, 5: e2214171. PMID: 35616938, PMCID: PMC9136627, DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.14171.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsHigh vaccine coveragePopulation immunityPublic health agenciesVaccine coverageVaccination campaignMAIN OUTCOMECOVID-19 positive test resultsSARS-CoV-2 attack ratesIntensive care unit occupancyHealth agenciesLarge epidemic waveProportion of vaccinesAttack rateObservational case seriesPopulation-level immunitySARS-CoV-2Median ageCase seriesCOVID-19 casesPercentage of individualsVaccination planningDelta variantOngoing epidemicPandemic settingVaccine
2019
Suspected heroin-related overdoses incidents in Cincinnati, Ohio: A spatiotemporal analysis
Li ZR, Xie E, Crawford FW, Warren JL, McConnell K, Copple JT, Johnson T, Gonsalves GS. Suspected heroin-related overdoses incidents in Cincinnati, Ohio: A spatiotemporal analysis. PLOS Medicine 2019, 16: e1002956. PMID: 31714940, PMCID: PMC6850525, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002956.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsRisk of overdoseRisk of incidentBlock groupHarm reduction measuresPoisson regression modelsHighest overdose ratesOpioid misuseRisk factorsOpioid epidemicOpiate overdosesOverdose incidentsOpioid overdosesOverdose ratesNature of incidentsEmergency callsMale populationMedian household incomeTreatment programOverdose emergencyHealth policySpatiotemporal risk factorsLack of informationDemographic characteristicsHigher numberOverdoses
2017
Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications
Ho LST, Xu J, Crawford FW, Minin VN, Suchard MA. Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications. Journal Of Mathematical Biology 2017, 76: 911-944. PMID: 28741177, PMCID: PMC5783825, DOI: 10.1007/s00285-017-1160-3.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAlgorithmsAnimalsBayes TheoremCommunicable DiseasesComputational BiologyComputer SimulationEnglandEpidemicsHistory, 17th CenturyHost-Parasite InteractionsHumansLikelihood FunctionsMarkov ChainsMathematical ConceptsModels, BiologicalMonte Carlo MethodPlagueProbabilityStochastic ProcessesConceptsBirth-death processTransition probabilitiesFinite-time transition probabilitiesSIR modelMonte Carlo approximationJoint posterior distributionLikelihood-based inferenceApproximate Bayesian computationStatistical inferenceMatrix exponentiationPosterior distributionProcess approximationBivariate extensionBayesian computationFraction representationLaplace transformCorrelation structureUnivariate populationsRemoved (SIR) modelSmall systemsBivariate processEfficient algorithmApproximationDirect inferenceFast methodAn Adaptive Approach to Locating Mobile HIV Testing Services
Gonsalves GS, Crawford FW, Cleary PD, Kaplan EH, Paltiel AD. An Adaptive Approach to Locating Mobile HIV Testing Services. Medical Decision Making 2017, 38: 262-272. PMID: 28699382, PMCID: PMC5748375, DOI: 10.1177/0272989x17716431.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAlgorithmsBayes TheoremComputer SimulationHIV InfectionsHumansMass ScreeningMobile Health UnitsPrevalenceConceptsMobile HIV testingHIV testingMobile HIV testing servicesHIV testing resourcesUndetected HIV infectionHIV testing servicesCase detection ratePublic health agenciesUndiagnosed HIVHIV infectionHIV testHIV prevalenceUnknown prevalenceMore casesHealth agenciesDefinitions of hotspotsPrevalence informationTesting servicesPrevalenceSelection biasDetection rateSearch strategyHIV
2012
Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics
Pybus OG, Suchard MA, Lemey P, Bernardin FJ, Rambaut A, Crawford FW, Gray RR, Arinaminpathy N, Stramer SL, Busch MP, Delwart EL. Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America 2012, 109: 15066-15071. PMID: 22927414, PMCID: PMC3443149, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1206598109.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsRobust nonparametric statisticsPathogen genome sequencesBasic reproductive numberMolecular evolutionWest Nile virusNatural populationsPhylogenetic historySpatial variablesLong-range movementsGenome sequenceSpatial invasionSpatial ecologyGenetic dataNile virusReproductive numberDispersalNonparametric statisticsSpatial epidemiologySpatial dynamicsNorth AmericaPrevious modelsSpatial parametersPhylogeneticsSpatial autocorrelationEcology