Along with Albert Ko and colleagues from the Pasteur Institute, we recently published a paper where we developed a model predicting leptospirosis oubreaks in New Caledonia based on El Nino patterns. Joe Lewnard, a Yale PhD student in epidemiology, has been working to quantify the climatic drivers of leishmania epidemics in Brazil.
In collaboration with Magnús Gottfreðsson and colleagues in Denmark and the UK, we studied the seasonal epidemic patterns of influenza in Iceland over the past 90 years and considered the impacts of Iceland’s increasing global connections on the timing of the annual epidemics. We found that until recently, influenza epidemics in Iceland lagged behind those in North America and Europe by 1-2 months, but since the 1990s the epidemics have been well synchronized and that these changes are associated with increases in international travel. With “Tany” Yi Tan of the Fogarty International Center, we evaluated how changes in immigration policies between the neighboring cities of Shenzhen and Hong Kong have affected influenza dynamics in the region.