Featured Publications
Estimating deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling up mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in low-income and lower-middle-income countries in the COVID-19 Omicron variant era: a modelling study
Savinkina A, Bilinski A, Fitzpatrick M, Paltiel AD, Rizvi Z, Salomon J, Thornhill T, Gonsalves G. Estimating deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling up mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in low-income and lower-middle-income countries in the COVID-19 Omicron variant era: a modelling study. BMJ Open 2022, 12: e061752. PMID: 36100306, PMCID: PMC9471205, DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-061752.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsLow-income countriesIncome countriesDeath avertedHigh-income nationsStatistical lifeAvertable deathsIncome nationsCOVID-19 deathsReasonable investmentHigh costKey inputCountriesParameter estimatesAvertedCostSensitivity analysisUniversal vaccinationGlobal vaccinationMRNA COVID-19 vaccinationNationsInvestmentPrimary vaccine seriesLow vaccine effectivenessCOVID-19 vaccinationPublic dataSurveillance for endemic infectious disease outbreaks: Adaptive sampling using profile likelihood estimation
Fairley M, Rao IJ, Brandeau ML, Qian GL, Gonsalves GS. Surveillance for endemic infectious disease outbreaks: Adaptive sampling using profile likelihood estimation. Statistics In Medicine 2022, 41: 3336-3348. PMID: 35527474, PMCID: PMC9283243, DOI: 10.1002/sim.9420.Peer-Reviewed Original Research
2024
The Evolution of Selection Bias in the Recent Epidemiologic Literature—A Selective Overview
Lu H, Howe C, Zivich P, Gonsalves G, Westreich D. The Evolution of Selection Bias in the Recent Epidemiologic Literature—A Selective Overview. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2024, kwae282. PMID: 39136207, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwae282.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchDéjà Vu All Over Again — Refusing to Learn the Lessons of Covid-19
Sinha M, Parmet W, Gonsalves G. Déjà Vu All Over Again — Refusing to Learn the Lessons of Covid-19. New England Journal Of Medicine 2024, 391: 481-483. PMID: 39047237, DOI: 10.1056/nejmp2406427.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchProjecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee
Borre E, Ahonkhai A, Chi K, Osman A, Thayer K, Person A, Weddle A, Flanagan C, Pettit A, Closs D, Cotton M, Agwu A, Cespedes M, Ciaranello A, Gonsalves G, Hyle E, Paltiel A, Freedberg K, Neilan A. Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2024, ciae243. PMID: 38913762, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciae243.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchCenters for Disease Control and PreventionIncrease HIV testingHuman immunodeficiency virus testingHuman immunodeficiency virusPriority populationsPrEP provisionCare linkageHIV testingPrevention fundingSurvivors of sex traffickingPregnant peopleTransgender womenLife yearsCondom useHIV prevention fundsUS Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDisease Control and PreventionBaseline condom useControl and PreventionReduced condom useHuman immunodeficiency virus transmissionHeterosexual Black womenPreexposure prophylaxisHIV transmissionBlack womenThe surge of mpox in Africa: a call for action
Nachega J, Sam-Agudu N, Ogoina D, Mbala-Kingebeni P, Ntoumi F, Nakouné E, Njouom R, Lewis R, Gandhi M, Rosenthal P, Rawat A, Wilson L, Kindrachuk J, Liesenborghs L, Mills E, Preiser W, Rimoin A, Sullivan N, Peeters M, Delaporte E, Baxter C, Harrison L, Hermans M, Mohr E, Gonsalves G, Ndembi N, Zumla A, Muyembe-Tamfum J, Consortium M. The surge of mpox in Africa: a call for action. The Lancet Global Health 2024, 12: e1086-e1088. PMID: 38735300, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(24)00187-6.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchComparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States
Park H, Gonsalves G, Tan S, Kelly J, Rutherford G, Wachter R, Schechter R, Paltiel A, Lo N. Comparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States. Nature Communications 2024, 15: 1883. PMID: 38448400, PMCID: PMC10917753, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45549-9.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSevere COVID-19Risk of severe COVID-19COVID-19 booster vaccinationBooster vaccinationHigh-risk populationAbsolute annual riskWaning of protectionImmunocompromised populationsFrequent boostingOlder age groupsAnnual boosterImmune evasionImmunocompromised personsPublic health needsPublic health guidanceRisk groupsFrequent boostersImmune statusRisk factorsFrequency of booster vaccinationHealth needsHealth guidanceCompare frequenciesAge groupsVaccineAccessibility of Opioid Treatment Programs Based on Conventional vs Perceived Travel Time Measures
Kim J, Lee J, Thornhill T, Dennett J, Lu H, Howell B, Grau L, Fiellin D, Heimer R, Gonsalves G. Accessibility of Opioid Treatment Programs Based on Conventional vs Perceived Travel Time Measures. JAMA Network Open 2024, 7: e240209. PMID: 38376839, PMCID: PMC10879949, DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.0209.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsTransit travel timeAccessibility metricsTravel timeTravel componentsAccessibility scoresTransportation burdenTravel burdenOut-of-vehicleComponents of travelConventional accessibility measuresSpatial regression modelsTravel time measurementsPublic transitTransit schedulesAccessibility measuresDeparture timeTravel time analysisTrip durationTravelOperating hoursTime analysisCross-sectional studyOpioid use disorderPolicy recommendationsDecision-making
2023
Clade I–Associated Mpox Cases Associated with Sexual Contact, the Democratic Republic of the Congo - Volume 30, Number 1—January 2024 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC
Kibungu E, Vakaniaki E, Kinganda-Lusamaki E, Kalonji-Mukendi T, Pukuta E, Hoff N, Bogoch I, Cevik M, Gonsalves G, Hensley L, Low N, Shaw S, Schillberg E, Hunter M, Lunyanga L, Linsuke S, Madinga J, Peeters M, Cigolo J, Ahuka-Mundeke S, Muyembe J, Rimoin A, Kindrachuk J, Mbala-Kingebeni P, Lushima R, Consortium I. Clade I–Associated Mpox Cases Associated with Sexual Contact, the Democratic Republic of the Congo - Volume 30, Number 1—January 2024 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2023, 30: 172-176. PMID: 38019211, PMCID: PMC10756366, DOI: 10.3201/eid3001.231164.Peer-Reviewed Original Research965. Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of HIV Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee
Borre E, Ahonkhai A, Chi K, Osman A, Thayer K, Person A, Weddle A, Flanagan C, Pettit A, Closs D, Cotton M, Agwu A, Cespedes M, Ciaranello A, Gonsalves G, Hyle E, Paltiel A, Freedberg K, Neilan A. 965. Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of HIV Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2023, 10: ofad500.2460. PMCID: PMC10678140, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofad500.2460.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchHIV testingHIV prevention fundingHIV transmissionDeath avertedTransgender womenPregnant peopleHIV careRisk groupsCondom usePrevention fundingHIV testing ratesPre-exposure prophylaxisHIV testing frequencyPriority risk groupBlack womenHeterosexual Black womenNumber of peoplePrEP provisionVirologic suppressionIncident HIVUndiagnosed HIVHIV deathsPrEP usePotential ClinicalClinical impactSelection Bias Requires Selection: The Case of Collider Stratification Bias
Lu H, Gonsalves G, Westreich D. Selection Bias Requires Selection: The Case of Collider Stratification Bias. American Journal Of Epidemiology 2023, 193: 407-409. PMID: 37939152, PMCID: PMC10911840, DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwad213.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMortality, incarceration and cost implications of fentanyl felonization laws: A modeling study
Savinkina A, Jurecka C, Gonsalves G, Barocas J. Mortality, incarceration and cost implications of fentanyl felonization laws: A modeling study. International Journal Of Drug Policy 2023, 121: 104175. PMID: 37729682, PMCID: PMC10840895, DOI: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2023.104175.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchOutbreaks in U.S. Migrant Detention Centers — A Vaccine-Preventable Cause of Health Inequity
Lo N, Gonsalves G. Outbreaks in U.S. Migrant Detention Centers — A Vaccine-Preventable Cause of Health Inequity. New England Journal Of Medicine 2023, 389: 679-681. PMID: 37602574, DOI: 10.1056/nejmp2304716.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchUsing Bandit Algorithms to Maximize SARS-CoV-2 Case-Finding: Evaluation and Feasibility Study
Rayo M, Faulkner D, Kline D, Thornhill T, Malloy S, Della Vella D, Morey D, Zhang N, Gonsalves G. Using Bandit Algorithms to Maximize SARS-CoV-2 Case-Finding: Evaluation and Feasibility Study. JMIR Public Health And Surveillance 2023, 9: e39754. PMID: 37581924, PMCID: PMC10430782, DOI: 10.2196/39754.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchCOVID-19 annual update: a narrative review
Biancolella M, Colona V, Luzzatto L, Watt J, Mattiuz G, Conticello S, Kaminski N, Mehrian-Shai R, Ko A, Gonsalves G, Vasiliou V, Novelli G, Reichardt J. COVID-19 annual update: a narrative review. Human Genomics 2023, 17: 68. PMID: 37488607, PMCID: PMC10367267, DOI: 10.1186/s40246-023-00515-2.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchEarly OxyContin Marketing Linked To Long-Term Spread Of Infectious Diseases Associated With Injection Drug Use
Dennett J, Gonsalves G. Early OxyContin Marketing Linked To Long-Term Spread Of Infectious Diseases Associated With Injection Drug Use. Health Affairs 2023, 42: 1081-1090. PMID: 37467441, PMCID: PMC10521060, DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2023.00146.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsInjection drug useDrug useAdverse long-term outcomesInfectious diseasesReformulation of OxyContinAcute hepatitis ALong-term outcomesOpioid-related overdosesInitial marketingFatal drug overdosesBacterial complicationsHepatitis ADrug overdosesEffects of exposureOpioid epidemicViral infectionGreater burdenIllicit drugsLow exposureComplicationsHigh exposureOverdosesOutcomesDiseaseOxyContinPopulation-Level Health Effects of Involuntary Displacement of People Experiencing Unsheltered Homelessness Who Inject Drugs in US Cities
Barocas J, Nall S, Axelrath S, Pladsen C, Boyer A, Kral A, Meehan A, Savinkina A, Peery D, Bien M, Agnew-Brune C, Goldshear J, Chiang J, Linas B, Gonsalves G, Bluthenthal R, Mosites E, Wortley P, Todd J, Melton D, Flynn C, German D, Klevens M, Doherty R, O'Cleirigh C, Jimenez A, Clyde T, Poe J, Vaaler M, Deng J, Al-Tayyib A, Shodell D, Higgins E, Griffin V, Sanger C, Khuwaja S, Lopez Z, Padgett P, Kwa Sey E, Ma Y, Santacruz H, Brantley M, Mathews C, Marr J, Spencer E, Nixon W, Forrest D, Anderson B, Tate A, Abrego M, Robinson W, Barak N, Beckford J, Braunstein S, Rivera A, Carrillo S, Ibrahim A, Wogayehu A, Moraga L, Brady K, Shinefeld J, Nnumolu C, Menza T, Orellana E, Bhattari A, Flynn A, Chambers O, Ramos M, McFarland W, Lin J, Miller D, Miranda De Leon S, Rolon-Colon Y, Martinez M, Jaenicke T, Glick S, Kienzle J, Smith B, Reid T, Opoku J, Kuo I, Adams M, Baugher A, Broz D, Burnett J, Chambers S, Chapin-Bardales J, Denning P, Finlayson T, Handanagic S, Hickey T, Kanny D, Lee K, Lewis R, Morris E, Olansky E, Robbins T, Sionean C, Smith A, Teplinskaya A, Trujillo K, Wejnert C, Whiteman A, Xia M. Population-Level Health Effects of Involuntary Displacement of People Experiencing Unsheltered Homelessness Who Inject Drugs in US Cities. JAMA 2023, 329: 1478-1486. PMID: 37036716, PMCID: PMC10087093, DOI: 10.1001/jama.2023.4800.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsNational HIV Behavioral Surveillance SystemInitiation of medicationInjection-related infectionsOpioid use disorderUse disordersHealth effectsInjection drug useLong-term health effectsDrug-related morbidityPopulation attributable fractionBehavioral Surveillance SystemSubstance use disordersMAIN OUTCOMEOverdose deathsRepresentative cohortAdditional deathsOverdose mortalityHealth outcomesDrug useNatural historyDisease controlMortalityDisorder outcomesDrugsHealth implicationsIncreased HIV Transmissions With Reduced Insurance Coverage for HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis: Potential Consequences of Braidwood Management v. Becerra
Paltiel A, Ahmed A, Jin E, McNamara M, Freedberg K, Neilan A, Gonsalves G. Increased HIV Transmissions With Reduced Insurance Coverage for HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis: Potential Consequences of Braidwood Management v. Becerra. Open Forum Infectious Diseases 2023, 10: ofad139. PMID: 37008565, PMCID: PMC10061554, DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofad139.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPatterns of Infectious Disease Associated With Injection Drug Use in Massachusetts
Gonsalves G, Paltiel A, Thornhill T, DeMaria A, Cranston K, Klevens R, Warren J. Patterns of Infectious Disease Associated With Injection Drug Use in Massachusetts. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2023, 76: 2134-2139. PMID: 36757712, PMCID: PMC10273381, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciad073.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSoft tissue infectionsHuman immunodeficiency virusHepatitis C virusInjection drug useHCV casesInfective endocarditisHIV casesDrug useSubstance use disordersLogistic regression modelsClinical sequalaeSSTI casesPublic health crisisTissue infectionsImmunodeficiency virusDisease AssociatedHIV outbreakAbscess incisionC virusUse disordersInfectious diseasesInfectionMultiple outbreaksMedical proceduresSuch associationsPlanning for Mpox on a College Campus: A Model-Based Decision-Support Tool.
Savinkina A, Chitwood M, Kwon J, Pitzer V, Gonsalves G, Paltiel A. Planning for Mpox on a College Campus: A Model-Based Decision-Support Tool. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2023, 176: 340-347. PMID: 36716454, PMCID: PMC10338074, DOI: 10.7326/m22-2734.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsSustained transmissionNational InstituteLow-risk groupHigh-risk populationPopulation of MSMHealth-National InstituteResidential college campusSymptomatic casesHypothetical cohortCongregate settingsStudy populationPreemptive vaccinationReactive vaccinationInfectious diseasesVaccinationDrug abuseBasic reproductive numberFuture outbreaksFrequent physical contactMSMReproductive numberOutbreakDaysMenTimely detection